Laws & Order (hopefully)
What: Final State of the State address by
When:
How to watch: Idaho Public Television will stream the speech online; the link can be found at http://idahoptv.org/insession/leg.cfm
ANALYSIS
Tax cuts -- again. Education -- again. Health care -- again.
Like aged grandparents invited over for Christmas dinner, these stuffy, geriatric policy stalwarts will once again be honored guests at
They are both the burden and the joy of these post-holiday get-togethers: A burden because, honestly, it's always the same old story with them -- more, more, more. They're just never satisfied. And a joy because lawmakers really do understand their importance and try to give them the respect they deserve.
Besides, constituents constantly ask about them, wonder how they're doing -- and honey, you do not want to be the elected representative who's accused of ignoring them.
Not to mention the constitutional requirement to provide a "general, uniform and thorough" system of public schools -- which, I swear, that tiresome education biddy never fails to bring up, usually right when tax cuts start getting all the attention.
So, yes, tax cuts, education and health care will be showered with attention once the 2018 session begins Monday.
The real question, though, is whether legislators will keep it together long enough to actually enjoy the meal, or go into meltdown mode immediately and spend the entire session slinging mud.
Witness their epic 2017 food fight, which began the first week of the session and continued through to the final days. It included unfounded accusations of sexual improprieties, political tantrums, hijacked bills, stripped committee assignments, parliamentary challenges, divided loyalties and endless us-versus-them histrionics.
And that was just within the Republican caucus. The poor-cousin
So be prepared for more mayhem and dysfunction in this election-year session. By the time it's over, Idahoans may be echoing
Some things to keep an eye on:
Final exit
This year caps
If the governor wants to settle scores, he doesn't have to look far to find them. Remember that group of 30 lawmakers who sued the state last summer, trying to overturn Otter's post-session veto of the grocery tax repeal bill?
Yeah, they're all plague carriers now. The word is if any of the 30 are listed as co-sponsor on a bill, it could have fatal consequences once the legislation reaches Otter's desk.
The list of plaintiffs includes four
This insight came from lobbyists known for their sense of humor, so maybe they were just joking. Stay tuned.
Play nice
Lawmakers are scheduled to attend mandatory "respectful workplace" trainings on Tuesday.
This isn't unusual; similar seminars have been held in recent years. Nevertheless, legislative leaders clearly want a more cordial tone this session than what they saw in 2017.
Will they be successful? Given the internal divisions within the Republican caucus, don't bet on it.
The party's far right and "establishment" factions are essentially engaged in a negative political campaign: Incumbents in the two groups aren't running against each other, but they're certainly hoping the other side loses ground in the 2018 primary -- and in some cases, they're actively working to ensure that outcome.
In that kind of environment, it's unlikely lawmakers will set aside all their differences. Though House Speaker
"We expect legislators to be the example, to set the standard for civility and decorum," Bedke said during a session preview meeting Friday. "I believe there is renewed commitment among all legislators to increase the level of civility in a way that doesn't limit robust debate. Hopefully, everyone learned from last year."
House Minority Leader
"It's going to be like the OK Corral," he said. "It's going to be a shootout."
Money matters
The biggest fiscal decision facing the Legislature this session is how to respond to the recently approved federal tax reform bill.
This year, however, due to the magnitude of the federal changes, state officials say the impact could range anywhere from
In other words, how they handle tax conformity will determine if there's any money available for other tax cuts, and how much can be spent on education and other budget needs.
"I can't remember when we went into a budget session where so little was known about the revenue stream coming in," said Rep.
The potential impact of tax conformity is so large lawmakers could even be forced to cut agency budgets, although
"I don't think we'd look at budget cuts," Hill said in December. "I think we'll make whatever adjustments are necessary (to avoid that)."
Grocery shopping
Assuming they can afford to consider other tax cuts -- and maybe even if they can't -- lawmakers are sure to revive their ongoing debate between eliminating the grocery tax versus lowering
Otter remains opposed to eliminating the 6 percent sales tax on food, which he sees as a stable revenue source and one of the few taxes everyone pays.
Nevertheless, lawmakers approved a repeal bill by a veto-proof margin last session, only to see the governor nix it after they went home. Supporters are hoping to take another run at it this year, if they can overcome procedural hurdles to introducing the bill.
Better business
For
"If there's a lot of movement at the federal level, it seems reasonable that we'd make changes, too," said Johnson, a Republican who chairs the
For example, he supports eliminating various income and sales tax exemptions and using the revenue to lower overall rates.
"It would simplify our tax code and broaden the tax base," Johnson said. "How are business tax credits being used? I think that's a fair question. Are there better ways to use tax credits that would benefit more taxpayers and flatten and lower tax rates?"
Smart thinking
Superintendent of Public Instruction
The largest component of that --
While there could be some debate over the size and distribution of the overall budget increase, there likely won't be any dispute over the career ladder component.
"There just hasn't been a lot of pushback on that," Hill noted. "We have a plan, and we're following it."
Creating a five-year plan to raise teacher salaries "was one of the smartest things we ever did," he added. Since it was enacted, the annual wrestling match over school funding "hasn't been as exciting as it used to be."
Healthy outcomes
Ever since their divisive, 2013 fight to create a state health insurance exchange,
As a result, there's been plenty of talk about how to address the health care needs of
The issue will come up again this year. Former
Altogether, the plan would provide insurance coverage for nearly half of the 78,000 adults in
Will that be enough to convince lawmakers to take action? Hill couldn't predict.
"Some still see it as a form of Medicaid expansion," he said. "Others see it as a way to avoid expansion."
Political headwinds
Standard political thinking suggests
That may not prove true in 2018.
With
Some of these measures were vetoed after the session ended, similar to the grocery tax repeal bill, but look for the caucus to try to build on its successes.
If the 2018 session does descend into a
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Spence may be contacted at [email protected] or (208) 791-9168.
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