LATEST THIRD-QUARTER GDP GROWTH ESTIMATE 4.6 PERCENT WED, 26 AUG 2026
The following information was released by the
GDPNow
GDPNow
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the
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GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNowthe estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.
4.6%%
Third-Quarter GDPNow Estimate for 2026:Q3
Updated:
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GDPNow Model Data and Historical Forecasts
GDPNow Release Dates
Modifications to GDPNow Model Forecast (updated
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Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2026:Q3
Quarterly percent change (SAAR)
Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts
Note: The top (bottom) 10 average forecast is an average of the highest (lowest) 10 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey.
Subcomponent Contribution Charts
Model Description
Frequently Asked Questions
Release Dates
These charts show how the forecasted GDP subcomponent contributions to growth aggregate up to GDPNow's real GDP growth forecast for each update day in a particular forecast quarter and how changes in the subcomponent contribution forecasts aggregate up to changes in the GDP growth forecasts. Whenever a user hovers the cursor over a bar in one of the charts, the pop-up box displays the data releases for the date of the bar as well the numerical values for the GDP growth forecast and either the levels or changes in the subcomponent contribution forecasts. For previously reported quarters, the final date in the top chart shows the official first estimates of real GDP growth and the subcomponent contributions to growth from the
Select a quarter:
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to "nowcast" GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add "color" to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids.
The BEA's advance estimates of the subcomponents of GDP use publicly released data from the
As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the "advance" GDP estimate release. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the
2017
Is GDPNow an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the Bank's president?
No, it is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the
Is any judgment used to adjust the forecasts?
No. Once the GDPNow model begins forecasting GDP growth for a particular quarter, the code will not be adjusted until after the "advance" estimate. If we improve the model over time, we will roll out changes right after the "advance" estimate so that forecasts for the subsequent quarter use a fixed methodology for their entire evolution.
When will nowcasts of GDP growth in a particular quarter begin and end?
GDPNow nowcasts of real GDP growth in a particular quarter begin about 90 days before the "advance" estimate for GDP growth for the quarter is released; they end on the last business day with a data release GDPNow utilizes that precedes the release date of the
For example, GDPNow's initial nowcast of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 took place on
How frequently is the GDPNow forecast updated?
The model forecast is updated six or seven times a month on weekdays, with at least one following seven data releases: Manufacturing ISM Report on Business,
How can I access historical forecasts from the GDPNow model?
These forecasts are available in this downloadable spreadsheet. See the tab "ReadMe" in the spreadsheet for hyperlinks to the historical forecasts and other data for the model. In particular, the tab "TrackingDeepArchives" has forecasts for the 2011:Q32014:Q1 period (before the model went live), the tab "TrackingArchives" has forecasts from 2014:Q2 through the last quarter for which an advance estimate of GDP has been released by the BEA, and the tab "TrackRecord" has a comparison of the historical GDPNow model forecasts with the actual "advance" real GDP growth estimates from the BEA.
Where can I read about the methods and source data used in the model?
A detailed description is given in a working paperdescribing the model. To summarize, the BEA's NIPA Handbook provides very detailed documentation on both the source data and methods used for estimating the subcomponents of GDP. The late Nobel Prizewinning economist
Where can I find alternative forecasts of GDP growth?
For model forecasts from other Reserve Banks, see the New York Fed Nowcasting Report, the St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast, the Philadelphia Research Intertemporal Stochastic Model (PRISM), and the
How accurate are the GDPNow forecasts? Are they more accurate than "professional" forecasts?
The chart below shows GDPNow's real-time forecasts made just prior to the release of the initial estimate of the annualized growth rate of real GDP along with the initial estimates from the
Since we started tracking GDP growth with versions of this model in 2011, the average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts is 0.77 percentage points. The root-mean-squared error of the forecasts is 1.17 percentage points. These accuracy measures cover initial estimates for 2011:Q32025:Q2. Some further analysis of GDPNow's forecast errors is available in macroblog posts located here and here. We have made some improvements to the model from its earlier versions, and the model forecasts have become more accurate over time (the complete track record is here). When back-testing with revised data, the root mean-squared error of the model's out-of sample forecast with the same data coverage that an analyst would have just before the "advance" estimate is 1.15 percentage points for the 2000:Q12013:Q4 period. The figure below shows how the forecasts become more accurate as the interval between the date the forecast is made and the forthcoming GDP release date narrows.
Overall, these accuracy metrics do not give compelling evidence that the model is more accurate than professional forecasters. The model does appear to fare well compared to other conventional statistical models.
How are revisions to data not yet reflected in the latest GDP release handled?
In general, the model does not attempt to anticipate how data releases after the latest GDP report will affect the revisions made in the forthcoming GDP release. The exception is the "change in private inventories" subcomponent, where revisions to the prior quarter's reading affect GDP growth in the current quarter. Users of the GDPNow forecast should generally use the forecasts of the change in "net exports" and the change in the "change in private inventories," and not forecasts of the levels. Revisions to retail sales are used to anticipate revisions to real monthly expenditures in the "PCE control group" and revisions to housing starts are used to anticipate revisions in the monthly value of private residential construction spending put in place.
Do you share your code?
At this point, no. However, the Excel spreadsheet gives the numerical detailsincluding the raw data and model parametersof how the monthly data map into forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP.
What are the differences between GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast models? Why do the two models have different forecasts?
The FRBNY Nowcast model of real GDP growth is based on a dynamic factor model described in this
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow also uses a dynamic factor modelbased on a model from one of the
The monthly source data are then used to estimate the subcomponents of GDP, which are then aggregated up to a real GDP growth nowcast. Besides a dynamic factor model, GDPNow uses several other econometric techniques, including "bridge equations" and Bayesian vector autoregressions, to nowcast the subcomponents of GDP. The exact methods are described in this working paper. The numerical detailsincluding the raw data and model parameterstranslating the monthly data into nowcasts of the subcomponents of GDP in the latest GDPNow forecast are available in this Excel file (see the ReadMe tab).
Because GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast are different models, they can generate different forecasts of real GDP growth. Our policy is not to comment on or interpret any differences between the forecasts of these two models.
Release times shown are from the original source. The GDPNow model is usually updated within a few hours following these times. Release schedule subject to change.
Release Date of release Time of release
Initial nowcast of 2025:Q4 GDP growth: GDP (Q3 1st estimate), Underlying detail tables, Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1), Industrial production
ISM Manufacturing Index, (Possibly) Auto sales
International trade (Full report), Wholesale trade
Housing starts, Employment situation
Retail trade, Producer Price Index, Existing-home sales
Construction spending
Personal income and outlays, GDP (Q3 2nd estimate)
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
International trade (Full report), Wholesale trade, M3-2 Manufacturing
ISM Manufacturing Index
Retail trade, Import and export prices
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1) , Housing starts, Industrial production
Final nowcast of 2025:Q4 GDP growth: International trade (Full report), Advance Economic Indicators
Initial nowcast of 2026:Q1 GDP growth: Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, New-home sales
Wholesale trade
Construction spending, Producer Price Index
ISM Manufacturing Index
Retail trade, Employment situation
International trade (Full report)**, Housing starts
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1) , GDP (Q4 2nd estimate), Personal income and outlays
New-home sales, Wholesale trade
Construction spending
Retail sales + inventories, ISM Manufacturing Index
International trade (Full report) **
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
GDP (Q4 3rd estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Wholesale trade
Retail sales + inventories
Final nowcast of 2026:Q1 GDP growth: Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1), Housing starts, Advance Economic Indicators
Initial nowcast of 2026:Q2 GDP growth: GDP (Q1 1st estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables
ISM Manufacturing Index
International trade (Full report), New-home sales, ISM Services
Construction spending
Employment situation, Wholesale trade
Retail sales + inventories, Import and export prices
Housing starts
GDP (Q1 2nd estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1), New-home sales
Construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index
International trade (Full report), Wholesale trade, Existing-home sales
Housing starts, Import and export prices
Retail sales + inventories
GDP (Q1 3rd estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
Construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index
International trade (Full report)**
Wholesale trade
Retail sales + inventories
Housing starts, Import and export prices, Industrial production
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
Final nowcast of 2026:Q2 GDP growth: Advance Economic Indicators
Initial nowcast of 2026:Q3 GDP growth: GDP (Q2 1st estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables
Construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index
International trade (Full report), M3-2 Manufacturing (Full report)
Wholesale trade
Retail sales + inventories
Housing starts, Import and export prices, Industrial production
GDP (Q2 2nd estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
Construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index
International trade (Full report), ISM Services
Wholesale trade, Producer Price Index, Existing-home sales
Retail sales + inventories, Import and export prices
Housing starts
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
GDP (Q2 3rd estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Economic Indicators
Construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index
International trade (Full report)**
Wholesale trade
Retail sales + inventories, Producer Price Index
Housing starts
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1) , New-home sales
Final nowcast of 2026:Q3 GDP growth: Advance Economic Indicators
Initial nowcast of 2026:Q4 GDP growth: GDP (Q3 1st estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables
Construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index
International trade (Full report), ISM Services
Wholesale trade
Retail sales + inventories, Import and export prices, Industrial production
Housing starts
GDP (Q3 2nd estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1), New-home sales
Construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index
International trade (Full report)**
Wholesale trade, Existing-home sales
Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production
Housing starts, Import and export prices
GDP (Q3 3rd estimate), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1), New-home sales
Download a spreadsheet of these release dates
*Time of last economic release; GDPNow update typically released 2 to 3.5 hours after this time.
**Note: Timing of release on dates of full international trade report will depend on when data on gold imports/exports is released by BEA. Traditionally, those data were released around
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