Last Day of 80s. Cooler Weather Ahead

Weather Outlook Saturday Here's the weather outlook for Saturday, which suggests warm temps across much of Minnesota once again. Temps will warm into the mid/upper 80s across the southern half of the state, while folks in the northern half of the state will will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s. With that said, we'll still be nearly +10F above average across much of the state! _____________________________________________________________________________ Marginal Severe Risk on Saturday According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms (highlighted in dark green) across the western half of Minnesota and into the eastern part of the Dakotas. It appears that the mains threats would be large haild and damaging winds in the late afternoon and evening hours along the cool front. ___________________________________________________________________________ Weather Outlook Through Midday Sunday Here's the weather outlook from midday Friday to Midday Sunday, which shows an isolated afternoon t-shower chance across parts of central MN on Friday, but most of us should stay dry. Our next best chance of showers and storms arrives late Saturday into early Sunday. Keep in mind that parts of western Minnesota are under a Marginal Severe Risk late Saturday as our next storm system approaches. Stay tuned! __________________________________________________________________________ Rainfall Potential Through AM Monday Here's the rainfall potential through early AM Monday, which suggests fairly heavy rain across parts of far western MN and the eastern Dakotas. The heaviest rain looks to be across the Northwestern part of MN, where some 1" to near 2" tallies can't be rule out as thunderstorms develop on Saturday. __________________________________________________________________________ Extended Temperature Outlook The extended temperature outlook through mid June shows mild temperature continuing through Saturday, but we take a bit of a hit late weekend and into much of next week. In fact, according to the ECMWF (European Model), temps not even warm into the 70s by the middle part of next week. Yikes! Keep in mind that our average high next week is in the upper 70s, so we could be nearly -10F below average at that point. I guess we can chalk it up as free A/C ?? ____________________________________________________________________________ 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature oulook suggests cooler than average temps lingering across much of the Central US and especially around the Great lakes. Meanwhile, folks in the Western US and much of Alaska will still be dealing with above average readings. ________________________________________________________________________________ Record Crest Along Arkansas River at Pendleton, AR It was a very wet month of May across parts of the Central US, with some locations seeing nearly 10" to 20" of rain. Thanks to significant rainfall, several rivers have been dealing with Major Flooding. In fact, some river have reached record crests like that along the Arkansas River at Toad Suck, AR. The highest crest was earlier this week, nearly 3.5ft. above the previous record crest that happened on April 27th, 1973. __________________________________________________________________________ Major Flooding Continues According to NOAA's NWS, there are 238 river gauges that are forecast to be in flood stage over the next several days. Note that 61 gauges will be in Moderate Flood Stage, while 52 gauges will be in Major Flood Stage. Unfortunately, could be dealing with this flooding for several days and perhaps weeks if heavy rain doesn't stop falling. _____________________________________________________________________________ "May was the 2nd-wettest month in the U.S. since 1895" "Unrelenting rains catapulted May to the second-wettest month on record in the U.S., leaving vast tracts of farmlands flooded across the nation's midsection, and jeopardizing this year's corn crop. The big picture: The May precipitation total for the Lower 48 states was 4.41 inches, which was 1.5 inches above average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The past 12 months have been the wettest such period on record for the Lower 48 since such records began in 1895, with rains especially concentrated in the Midwest, Plains and Northeast. Rainfall during this period was 37.68 inches, which was 7.73 inches above average for the period, the previous all-time 12-month record was 36.2 inches, set this April. Context: A combination of heavy rainfall and spring snowmelt has led to record flooding along numerous rivers in the Midwest and Plains, rivaling or exceeding the great floods of the past century, including 1927 and 1993. Hydroclimate extremes, including droughts and heavy precipitation events, as well as sharp whiplash-like swings between the two, are expected to become more common and severe as the climate continues to warm due to human activities." See more from Axios HERE: ______________________________________________________________________________ Central US Precipitation Since January 1st

Take a look at how much precipitation has fallen across the Central US so far this year. Interestingly, some spots are well above since January 1st and there doesn't seem to be an end in the precipitation potential through mid June. Unfortunately, quite a bit of this has fallen since May 1st, which has caused many rivers to reach Major Flood Stage and even Record Flood Stage. Farm fields are flooded and are in rough shape this growing season.

_____________________________________________________________________________ "Low prices, floods and trade wars plague American farmers, putting their survival at risk"

"And then came the rain. American farmers already plagued by a near biblical parade of misfortune that includes years of low prices and a trade war with China are now grappling with record Midwest rain that will likely prevent a large portion of this year’s crop from even getting planted. The troubles have created the worst farm crisis since the 1980s, when oversupplies and a U.S. grain embargo against the Soviet Union forced thousands of farmers into bankruptcy, experts say. “It’s not the 1980s, but it’s as close as we’ve been,” says John Newton, chief economist of the American Farm Bureau. While some farmers have been shutting down or selling to larger competitors for years amid thinner profits, analysts say 2019 will bring a more dramatic shakeout. “This is more than a cyclical thing,” says Gary Schnitkey, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. “It’s a series of events that we’ve never seen come together. … It’s going to be a blow to everyone’s financial position.”

See more from USA Today HERE:

____________________________________________________________________________ Last Day of 80s. Cooler Weather Ahead By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

I don't know what it is about this time of year, but it's my favorite. I've always enjoyed the returning warmth, vibrant colors and newly planted gardens. Chirping birds, distant thunderheads and the smell of a freshly mowed lawn. Summer is here! Just don't blink.

According to NOAA, lightning strikes the United States nearly 25 million times a year! Unfortunately, nearly 50 Americans die from lightning each year as well. Peak lightning season runs from June to August when temperatures, on average, are at their warmest. NOAA reminds us that "When thunder roars, go indoors." Another good rule of thumb to follow is the 30-30 Rule. If you can count 30 seconds between flash and bang, you are close enough to get struck. Then, wait 30 minutes after last rumble of thunder to head back outside.

Today will be warm and breezy with late day strong to severe storms across far western MN. A few t-showers linger into Sunday across eastern MN, but amounts will be lower.

Free A/C arrives next week as temps struggle to get to 70 degrees Wednesday. _____________________________________________

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Warm breeze. PM Storms west. Winds: SSE 10-20. High: 86.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: SSE 5. Low: 63.

SUNDAY: Lingering AM t-showers. Cooler breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 75.

MONDAY: Low humidity. Stray afternoon shower. Winds: WNW 7-12. Wake-up: 53. High: 74.

TUESDAY: Dry start. Some late day rumbles. Winds: SW 8-13 Wake-up: 52. High: 74.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering t-showers. Even cooler. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 55. High: 70.

THURSDAY: Dry. Refreshing sunshine. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 51. High: 72.

FRIDAY: Few showers and storms late. Winds: SSW 10-20. Wake-up: 56. High: 74. ______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History June 8th

1972: 8 inches of rain falls in 7 hours at Madelia Township in Wantonwan County.

1893: Violent winds occur at Maple Plain from 1:30 to 2:15pm. A large frame house was moved 8 feet from its foundation. Many barns and haysheds blown over by the wind. One barn was blown across Dutch Lake. __________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis June 8th

Average High: 77F (Record: 102F set in 1985) Average Low: 56F (Record: 36F set in 1885)

Record Rainfall: 2.12" set in 1918 Record Snowfall: NONE _________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis June 8th

Sunrise: 5:27am Sunset: 8:57pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 31 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 58 seconds Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): ~6 hours and 47 minutes __________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for June 8th at Midnight 1.0 Days Before First Quarter Moon

See more from Space HERE:

___________________________________ What's in the Night Sky?

"On June 8 and 9, 2019, use the moon to find the Regulus, the brightest star in the constellation Leo the Lion. This blue-white gem of a star is of 1st-magnitude brightness and is the 21st brightest star to light up the nighttime sky. The moon is rather close to Regulus for only a few days each month. So when the moon is no longer there to guide you, let the Big Dipper serve as your handy guide to this star. The two bowl stars on the handle side of the Big Dipper faithfully point to Regulus."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________ Average Tornadoes By State in June According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in June is still very high across much of the nation. Interestingly, Minnesota average the most tornadoes in June than any other month during the year with 15. ______________________________________________________________________________ 2019 Preliminary Tornado Count Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows nearly 1,000 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central uS and across parts of the Ohio Valley. _______________________________________________________________________________ 2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through June 4th suggests that there have been a total of 1,062, which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 812. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,433 tornadoes were reported. ________________________________________________________________________ Saturday Weather Outlook Here's a look at high temps across the nation on Saturday, which shows very warm temps across the Upper Mississippi Valley. In fact, Minneapolis will warm to near 90F again today, which will be nearly +10F above average. Meanwhile, Folks in the Northwest will be cooler than average by nearly -10F. Interestingly, this is some of the cooler weather headed our way as we head into next week. ____________________________________________________________________________ National Weather Outlook Here's the weather outlook as we head through the weekend, which shows areas of heavy rain continuing across the Southeastern US as a slow moving storm system moves through the region. There will also be another storm system that moves from the Northwest into the Central US with a few strong to severe storms on Saturday across the High Plains. ______________________________________________________________________________ Heavy Ranifall Potential According to NOAA's WPC, there is going to be some serious rain across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region, where several inches of rain can't be ruled out through early next week. Some spots could see nearly 6" to 10", which cloud lead to flash flooding. Stay tuned! ____________________________________________________________________________ "Here's How Meteorologists Use Damage To Estimate The Strength Of A Tornado" "Tornadoes can pack the strongest winds of any weather on Earth. Unsurprisingly, it takes an incredible amount of luck and lots of expensive technology to get close enough to a tornado to directly measure its winds. The strength, size, and fleeting nature of tornadoes require meteorologists to rate a tornado by surveying damage left behind by the storm. Some of these tornado ratings can be surprising and even controversial. Here’s how meteorologists use damage to determine the strength of a tornado. The Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale allows meteorologists to estimate the strength of a tornado’s winds at a certain point. Looking at a house that's missing its roof can tell you quite a bit about the wind speeds at that point if you know how well the house was built. The scale ranges from EF-0, with winds as low as 65 MPH, to an EF-5, which packs winds of 200 MPH or stronger. Most tornadoes fall on the lower end of the scale. Dr. Ted Fujita teamed up with structural engineers and other meteorologists to create his eponymous damage rating scale in the early 1970s. Fujita’s extensive tornado research contributed greatly to what we know about tornadoes today. The original Fujita Scale was revised into the Enhanced Fujita Scale on February 1, 2007, using updated research to better estimate wind speeds based on damage." See more from Forbes HERE: ____________________________________________________________________________ "Swarm of ladybugs 80 miles by 80 miles is so large that it shows up on the National Weather Service radar as a huge storm system flying at 9,000ft" "NWS San Diego shared a radar map of the strange phenomenon that occurs every year in places like Wrightwood, California 'The large echo showing up on SoCal radar this evening is not precipitation, but actually a cloud of lady bugs termed a "bloom,"' the service said According to Joe Dandrea, a meteorologist with NWS San Diego, the bloom of ladybugs appear to be approximately 80 miles by 80 miles It is unknown what type of ladybug is causing all the commotion but there are more than 100 types of ladybugs in California" See more from Daily Mail HERE: _________________________________________________________________________ "Telescoping bed frame doubles as a tornado shelter" "If you live in a tornado-prone area, it's important to have some sort of storm-proof shelter in or near your home. Oklahoma-based Life Lift Systems has come up with a unique in-bedroom solution, in the form of its Vortex Vault Tornado Shelter Bed. Putting it simply, the Vortex Vault is an impact- and crush-resistant solid-steel bed frame that can be telescoped up within a little over a minute when a tornado is approaching. Users proceed to enter the resulting rectangular shelter through three vertically-aligned doors in its side, then lock themselves in to ride out the storm. The bed frame is lifted (and subsequently lowered) via a four-motor scissor-lift mechanism that's powered by an adjacent 110-volt AC wall outlet. In the event of a power outage, an integrated backup battery takes over. And should users not have time to raise the shelter before the storm hits, they can still crawl into the Vortex Vault in its lowered state by opening all three doors together." See more from New Atlas HERE: _____________________________________________________________________________ "Thousands More Americans Will Die in Heat Waves Unless We Meet Paris Climate Goals" "The world is heating up and no one is safe, even in the richest country on Earth. Rising temperatures could kill thousands of us in the U.S., a new study finds. The study, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, highlights how thousands of Americans could die under heat waves every 30 years if the world fails to meet the targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, which President Donald Trump announced he would withdraw the U.S. from in 2017. The number of deaths varies from city to city, and it’ll also vary depending on how much the world warms by 2100. That’s something we actually have the power to change. “We are no longer counting the impact of climate in change in terms of degrees of global warming, but rather in terms of number of lives lost,” co-lead author, Dann Mitchell, a researcher with the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute, said in a statement. The study looks specifically at 15 major cities in the U.S. and compared the number of heat-related deaths that could occur under three warming scenarios. The authors focus on the number of deaths during heat waves that are likely to occur once every 30 years as those types of heat events are “more relevant to climate change mitigation and adaptation action than rarer events” according to the study." See more from Earther HERE: ________________________________________________________________________ "‘Something incredible happened last week’: Forecasters credited with saving lives in outbreak with 434 tornado reports" "Imagine a massive tornado -- an atmospheric buzz saw -- tearing through your neighborhood with winds of 170 mph. Envision it leaving a path of destruction up to a mile wide and 10, 20 or 30 miles long. Picture this happening twice in two days, with zero fatalities. Last week marked an incredible milestone in weather, as Dayton, Ohio, and the western Kansas City suburbs suffered violent tornadoes without a loss of life. The relatively minimal death toll during the United States’ weeks-long tornado swarm is an enormous success story, a testament to how far we’ve come with advanced predictive methods and the ability to disseminate warnings. In the last two weeks of May, the National Weather Service received 434 reports of tornadoes. There were 14 days in the sequence, 13 of which had at least eight tornado reports, and 10 days of which had 16 or more reported twisters. Amid the barrage of hundreds of tornadoes stretching from the High Plains to near the nation’s capital, six people died. While any loss of life is tragic, that number is incredibly low, given the magnitude and extent of the destruction left in the storms’ wake. And none of the deaths was associated with two of the most violent (EF4) tornadoes." See more from WashingtonPost HERE: ___________________________________________________________________________ "Urgent Climate Action Could Prevent Many Heat-Related Deaths" "Record-setting heat waves in the southeastern United States over the past few weeks offer a sobering reminder that extreme heat is on the rise. Since the 1960s, U.S. cities have experienced more frequent and longer periods of extreme heat. Too often, these have led to tragic results including premature deaths, particularly in older adults, infants, children, and people with chronic diseases. One particularly devastating midwestern heat wave in July 1995 claimed 739 lives in Chicago alone, mostly among elderly, low-income residents. Increases in heat-related illnesses and hospitalizations affect families and communities as well, with an attendant rise in healthcare costs. And extreme heat endangers the health and well-being of our nation’s 15 million outdoor workers, putting lives, livelihoods and key sectors of the nation’s economy at risk." See more from Scientific American HERE:

_____________________________________________________________________________ "How mangroves protect people from increasingly frequent and powerful tropical storms"

"Mangroves are incredibly productive coastal ecosystems found in the tropics and subtropics. These dense green forests are known for their bizarre-looking roots that poke up into the air from shallow water. Among the meshed webs of roots are fish nurseries, enabling humans to make a living from the marine life in and around the mangroves. Mangroves also play another important role for humans, protecting communities from major storms. Climate change is more than rising temperatures, and the increased frequency and intensity of cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons is apparent. Cyclone Fani for example, which recently struck the Bay of Bengal, was one of the strongest to devastate India in the past 20 years. Mangrove roots can break up the force of a storm surge, soaking up some of its energy and protecting people living on coasts from cyclone damage. Yet it is a challenge to effectively value and protect individual mangrove ecosystems. And we just don't have the people or funds to deliver detailed studies for even a fraction of the villages and towns sheltered by mangroves."

See more from Phys.org HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________ Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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