Hurricane Dorian’s track shifts; Broward no longer in the cone

Sep. 2--After battering the Bahamas with sustained winds of 185 mph -- and even stronger gusts -- Hurricane Dorian marched slowly west but its threat to South Florida was diminishing.

With a forecast for the center of Dorian to avoid a South Florida landfall, Broward and Miami-Dade counties were no longer in the forecast cone of uncertainty. Central and northern Palm Beach County remained in the cone; the southern part of the county was under a tropical storm warning.

Palm Beach and Broward counties remained on guard as evacuation shelters began welcoming residents before conditions deteriorated.

The monster storm will move "dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night," the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. Sunday advisory. Sustained wind speeds were still near 180 mph.

"Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations in intensity could occur couple of days," the alert continued. "Regardless, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days."

Forecasters say the hurricane should begin to stall before turning north rather than make a Florida landfall. Yet even with the expected turn, strong winds and heavy rains are likely to be felt because hurricane winds extend out 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds reach 140 miles from the center.

"It just takes a little wiggle, a little movement, a little jog, and then all of a sudden you're a little closer to the coast," National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham said in a Facebook Live broadcast.

He explained that atmospheric conditions can change the direction of what has been an unpredictable storm. Dorian now ranks as one of the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfalls on record, tied with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, authorities said.

The only recorded storm that was more powerful was Hurricane Allen in 1980, with 190 mph winds. But that storm did not make landfall at that strength.

Portions of Palm Beach County remained within the left edge of the cone of possible courses for the storm's center.

The eastern half of Palm Beach County was expected to experience tropical storm conditions by Monday morning and lasting through Tuesday night, with the northern section of the county's coastline at risk of "life-threatening storm surge." Forecasters also said "significant" impacts from high winds are possible from Lake Okeechobee to Broward.

"You can still see a situation where this moves right up the coast or maybe a little bit inland and that's going to cause a lot of damage from hurricane force winds ... and storm surge," Graham said. "We need everybody to be ready."

A hurricane warning was issued from Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line at 5 p.m. Sunday.

Earlier in the day, a hurricane watch was issued from Boca Raton through Brevard County, after the storm reached Category 5 force and its projected path took a slight bend toward Florida. At 11 p.m.. Boca north to the inlet was under a tropical storm warning. Deerfield Beach south to Golden Beach in Miami-Dade County was under a tropical storm watch.

Most potential paths still show the storm remaining at sea and and aimed at the Carolinas. The critical question remains when it turns north. At 11 p.m. the storm was 135 miles east of West Palm Beach, moving west at 6 miles per hour.

The National Hurricane Center highlighted a "reasonable worst case scenario" of hurricane-force winds from 74 to 100 mph in Palm Beach County, and tropical storm force winds of 50 to 65 mph in Broward.

The catastrophic storm made landfall at 12:40 p.m. Sunday on Elbow Cay in the Abaco islands. The hurricane was expected to move near or over Grand Bahama Island by the early hours of Monday morning, in what officials labeled a "life-threatening situation."

Reports indicate extensive damage in the northern Bahamas, with the winds gusting as high as 220 mph ripping off roofs, overturning cars and tearing down power lines. Neighborhoods were flooded from storm surge ranging from 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels.

"These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas and will continue for several hours," warned a 9 p.m. advisory from the hurricane center.

"It's devastating," Joy Jibrilu, director general of the Bahamas' Ministry of Tourism and Aviation, said Sunday afternoon. "There has been huge damage to property and infrastructure. Luckily, no loss of life reported."

Video that Jibrilu and government spokesman Kevin Harris said was sent by Abaco residents showed floodwaters rushing through the streets of an unidentified town at nearly the height of a car roof.

In some parts of Abaco, "you cannot tell the difference as to the beginning of the street versus where the ocean begins," said Prime Minister Hubert Minnis.

"We have seen what Hurricane Dorian is capable of, and the First Lady and I extend our prayers to the people of the Bahamas," said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Palm Beach County ordered the evacuation of barrier islands and other vulnerable areas Sunday, including the site of President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate.

The storm strengthened unexpectedly Sunday morning before it struck the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter airplane penetrated the storm's eyewall and found winds had reached a "catastrophic" speed of 160 mph, with higher gusts, as the eye approached the Abaco islands of the Bahamas, the hurricane center said. A pass through the northwestern eyewall found the higher wind speeds.

Because of mandatory evacuation orders in five counties, tolls were suspended on Florida's Turnpike, and "selected toll roads" across the state, including Interstate 95 express lanes, and the Sawgrass Expressway and Alligator Alley in South Florida.

Palm Beach International Airport will cease flights beginning Monday. Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport announced late Sunday that it would close at noon Monday. Miami International Airport did not announce any closures.

Still, more than 600 Labor Day flights in the U.S. had been canceled as of Sunday afternoon, many of them in Florida.

The Port of Palm Beach closed at 6 p.m. Sunday, officials said. Brightline said it has canceled all train service on Monday and Tuesday.

Palm Beach County's evacuation order covers two zones: Zone A includes mobile homes, sub-standard housing and low-lying areas. Zone B includes the barrier islands, land north and south of Jupiter Inlet, and other vulnerable areas south along the Intracoastal Waterway to the Broward County line.

You can check your zone at readyPBC.com.

The county had nine general shelters open by 5 p.m., as a well as a special-needs shelter and pet-friendly shelter. For information about the special shelters, call 561-712-6400.

A tropical storm watch was issued Sunday from northern Miami-Dade County to Deerfield Beach. A watch means tropical conditions, defined as winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour, are possible within 48 hours. The southern end of the watch area is the town of Golden Beach.

A watch previously issued for a stretch of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet was upgraded to a warning, which means tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. The hurricane center said the changes account for a shift in the storm track closer toward Florida.

Broward officials opened three special needs adult shelters and one pediatric special needs shelter at 2 p.m. Sunday. No evacuations have been ordered.

Schools will be closed Tuesday in Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties, with possible scenarios ranging from the possibility of a direct hit by a major hurricane to the likelihood of heavy wind, rain and waves as the hurricane turns north and just brushes the coast.

The National Hurricane Center cited the potential for "large and destructive waves" to hit Florida.

"Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances," an advisory said.

Possible rainfall totals have fluctuated. Most areas are likely to see 2 to 4 inches of rain, with coastal regions seeing 4 to 6 inches. Isolated areas could see 6 to 10 inches.

In a conference call with reporters Sunday, meteorologist Robert Molleda said that if the Dorian's predicted track continues, rainfall totals in the area won't be any more than "a typical weekend in September."

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.

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