Hurricane Dorian track stays east but Florida landfall still possibility, hurricane center says

Sep. 1--Hurricane Dorian on Saturday continued to churn, growing to a major Category 4 hurricane with dangerous 150 mph winds as it targets the Bahamas. The latest path projections show it will spare Florida a direct hit, although a tropical storm watch is in effect for Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

The NHC said late Saturday night the path could still change, saying "there is still considerable spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States."

"Although the exact NHC track forecast lies east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even a landfall remain a possibility.," the hurricane center said.

The projected path by the National Hurricane Center didn't change significantly since its Saturday morning forecast, which showed the storm strafing the northern Bahamas Sunday and Monday, but then taking a sharp right so the center of the storm doesn't make Florida landfall.

Sunday is the key day for determining how the storm will impact Central Florida.

"By late Sunday, the dynamical models erode the western portion of the ridge, which should cause the hurricane to slow down and become nearly stationary over the northwestern Bahamas in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced, and Dorian is expected to turn northwestward, and eventually northeastward near the southeastern United States coast," forecasters said. "Although there is general agreement on this overall scenario, there is still considerable spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States."

The hurricane center has already measured gusts of 185 mph.

"The risk for a landfall in Florida is lower, but it's definitely not zero," said WOFL-Fox 35 meteorologist Brooks Tomlin. "I would expect to see at least some tropical storm watches if not some hurricane watches being posted because we're still in the cone of uncertainty.

"A lot of people focus in the center line, but all of Central Florida is still inside the cone, even though most recent forecast guidance is continuing to track Dorian off shore."

The state's east coast from Palm Beach County up to Cape Canaveral and inland to parts of Orange County are still within the three-day cone of uncertainty. The five-day projection includes even more of the state, but the consensus path now has the storm headed for landfall near the South Carolina and North Carolina border. The tropical storm watch includes Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin counties and the nearshore Atlantic Treasure Coast waters

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, though, cautioned that the storm paths will continue to change and that Florida residents need to be wary.

"There is still significant chance of a strike on the state of Florida," DeSantis said during a briefing at the Emergency Operations Center this morning. "Anyone inside of that cone needs to be prepared."

State emergency operation officials said they could use the experience of Hurricane Matthew, a storm that appeared set for a direct hit on Florida in 2016 before rolling up the east coast, as a model while preparing for Dorian's impact.

DeSantis said he's monitoring traffic patterns to see if highways get clogged as a result of evacuation orders.

In addition to President Trump, DeSantis had calls with the Governors of Georgia and South Carolina today, as well as local government officials, legislators and NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine.

The path has shifted several times since Thursday with projected landfalls suggesting it would slam into Florida as far south as West Palm Beach and as far north as Flagler Beach. Its path all day Friday had it targeting Orlando, but the various computer models kept shifting the path farther east.

As of 11 p.m. Saturday, Hurricane Dorian was 125 miles east of Great Abaco Island and 310 miles east of West Palm Beach and headed west at 8 mph. It looks to hit the Bahamas on Sunday. A hurricane warning remains in effect for much of the northwestern Bahamas.

"If we expect no real change in size of Dorian, then if Dorian tracks within 50 or 60 miles [of Florida], we could have hurricane gusts along the coasts," Tomlin said.

-- Hurricane Dorian News

Hurricane Dorian: Live updates from around Florida

By Richard Tribou, Todd Stewart, Ricky Pinela, Tiffini Theisen, Mark Skoneki, Kathleen Christiansen and Lynnette Cantos

Aug 31, 2019 -- 9:52 AM

Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles from the storm's center with tropical storm-force winds extending out 105 miles. The current forecast has the center of the storm parked off Florida's coast still as a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds with gusts up to 160 mph near Brevard County by Tuesday morning.

It is then projected to head more north skirting Florida's coast and diminish speed, but still a dangerous Category 3 level hurricane with 115 mph winds by Wednesday morning east of Jacksonville.

The state will begin to feel tropical storm-force winds, though, as early as midday Sunday.

"Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week," the NHC said.

DeSantis said the fuel situation improved overnight, as gas trucks sped to resupply stations throughout the state. Many areas, including in South Florida and Central Florida, experienced long lines and shortages at some stations.

Despite the shifting track, Dorian is still set to wreak havoc on travel plans. Orlando International Airport will cease operations at 2 a.m. Monday, while Orlando Sanford Airport plans to close at 11:59 p.m. Sunday

SunRail will be shut down all week, and Amtrak has canceled multiple trains through Tuesday. Lynx hasn't announced any cancellations, but it's buses will not run in sustained winds of 35 mph or more.

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said he's not taking any chances despite the fluctuating forecast.

"We are cautiously optimistic based upon the most recent track of the storm," Demings said during an update Saturday outside the Emergency Operations Center in Winter Park. "However, we still have the responsibility to ensure that, should the storm track change, we are ready and prepared to deal with whatever the impacts may be in Central Florida here."

Brevard County is set to begin mandatory evacuations from its barrier islands on Monday, DeSantis said, and other counties will have voluntary or partial evacuations, including Osceola, Martin, Glades and Hendry counties. But as the forecast tracks shift, evacuation orders may change, DeSantis said.

The Hurricane Center also began tracking a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that as of 8 p.m. Saturday had a 30 percent chance of tropical system formation in the next 48 hours, and 60 percent chance in the next five days.

If it forms, it will be the seventh tropical depression of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. If it grows into a named storm, it would become Tropical Storm Fernand. The hurricane center was also tracking a storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico given a 20 percent chance of tropical system formation in the next 48 hours, and 30 percent chance in the next five days.

Staff writers Gray Rohrer, Stephen Hudak, Roger Simmons and Matt Palm contributed to this story.

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