Hurricane Dorian: Palm Beach County could take brunt of storm’s Cat 4 ambush

As of the 5 p.m. advisory, Dorian was 595 miles east of West Palm Beach moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Minimum central pressure was 970 mb. A hurricane warning was in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A hurricane watch was in effect for Andros Island.

Hurricane-force winds extended 30 miles from the center of the storm, with tropical storm-force winds reaching 115 miles from the center.

Tropical storm-force winds could begin as early as Sunday afternoon in southeast Florida with the most likely arrival times late Sunday into early Monday. Emergency managers suggest all storm preparations be complete before tropical storm-force winds arrive.

"We tell people to plan for one category higher," said National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham. "The models are not indicating this could be a Cat 5 hurricane, but you never want to rule anything out."

If the forecast track from Friday holds true, Dorian's center would come ashore near Fort Pierce as a major hurricane, with 140 mph sustained winds and 165 mph gusts. It then would take a sharp right, hugging the coast as a Category 3 or Category 2 hurricane through St. Johns County.

#Dorian is expected to be slow moving as it nears the Florida coastline, which could result in heavy rainfall. Here is the latest 7 day total rainfall forecast. @NWSWPC pic.twitter.com/4hnKZuUQBS

-- National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 30, 2019

But the track has been jumpy all week, moving from Cape Canaveral to West Palm Beach and north again. NHC forecasters said people "should be prepared for additional adjustments to the left or right depending on future model trends."

"There is a 20 percent chance that it could miss Florida, but that's still an 80 percent chance that it will hit it," said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, an IBM business. "If I lived in Florida, I would be hesitant to go anywhere at this point until the track narrows."

Meteorologists said their biggest concern will be Dorian's slow crawl as it nears Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a" prolonged, drawn out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge and heavy rainfall."

Lazy steering currents from a weakened Bermuda High mean Dorian could be moving at just 4 mph when it reaches the coast.

"That means more rain, longer winds for a longer period of time," Graham said. "You have a longer onshore flow, which means more of a potential push of water inland."

It is also arriving during a king tide event with Friday's new moon.

"Flooding will be a problem for everyone, but worse for coastal areas," said Jayantha Obeysekera, director of Florida International University's Sea Level Solutions Center. "Storm surge on top of that could compound the problem. Flood control systems might not be able to keep pace."

As of Friday afternoon, storm surge information had yet to be released by the National Hurricane Center, which was running models to see what kind of water heights would inundate beaches and push ocean water into the brackish Intracoastal.

Graham estimated 10 feet of surge is possible. Storm surge maps likely will be issued when watches or warnings go into effect.

"People need to start taking this seriously if they haven't already," Graham said.

Kmiller@pbpost.com

@Kmillerweather

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