Home insurance is the stealth political issue of 2026

BY MARK GONGLOFF Quick, name a critical issue in this year’s midterm elections using just two words. Many of you probably said "food prices" or "Iran war" or "diarrhea lettuce." And you might not be wrong. But there’s another, less obvious factor that could be even more decisive: home insurance.

Polls of American voters consistently show housing costs are among their top priorities, even if they’re not the top priority (those food prices). And soaring home insurance costs are making already expensive housing unreachable for some. Americans are starting to notice; 58% of voters say rising insurance costs will make them more likely to turn out in the midterms, according to a recent poll by the comparison site Insurify.

Large majorities of Americans claim to worry about climate change, but not nearly as many translate that worry into votes (see Trump, Donald, reelection of). At the same time, if you scan the list of what voters say is pushing them to the polls this year, you’ll find the issue of a hotter planet underlying many of them. Home insurance is one of the clearest examples.

"Polling data show growing awareness of the home-insurance crisis but not necessarily complete salience or permeation" of it as a political issue, Grace Adcox, senior climate strategist at the nonprofit polling firm Data for Progress, told me. "There’s a lot of room for people to become more aware."

Home-insurance premiums have risen 46% since 2021, or nearly triple the rate of inflation, according to Insurify, as insurers reacted to a surge in expensive natural disasters. Some states have experienced far higher jumps; Florida’s increases were roughly double the national average, according to the nonprofit group Coalition for an Insurable Future. Nearly 80% of voters expect their home-insurance premiums to rise again in 2027, and they’re almost certainly right.

It’s easy for home-insurance premiums to get lost in the general inflation miasma affecting most of us. Unlike gasoline and food prices, which people see every day, many only confront their home-insurance costs once a year. Health and auto insurance affect a broader swath of voters, while home insurance is a nonissue for renters (except for when landlords pass on their higher costs).

But more than a quarter of voters in the Insurify poll specifically identified home premiums as influencing their vote. And the percentage of those voting based on overall insurance costs rises to 65% in Florida and 61% in California, two states infamous for soaring home premiums. Insurify’s results are also consistent with a 2025 poll by Data for Progress that found 78% of likely voters were at least somewhat concerned about rising property insurance costs. Party lines made little difference.

And home insurance is increasingly shoving itself in people’s faces, even in places that aren’t Florida or California. The number of billion-dollar weather disasters keeps rising, creating more opportunities for people to interact with their insurers, often in infuriating ways. The number of policy nonrenewals keeps rising.

In 15 states, monthly home premiums cost more than property taxes, according to LendingTree data. In 10 states, insurance is the biggest share of monthly housing costs. Those 10 states don’t include Florida or California. Instead, they’re places like Colorado, Nebraska and Texas, where climate-related hazards such as droughts, wildfires, floods and severe storms are on the rise.

The good news is that Americans have the political power to influence the outcome of this crisis. The bad news is most Americans are unaware of that fact. Nearly a third of voters in the Insurify poll had no idea how insurance rates were regulated in their state. The rest of their answers included such wild guesses as the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and the US commerce secretary.

Only 17% of voters guessed correctly that state insurance commissioners regulate rates, when in fact all 50 states have commissioners. Some have more power than others, but all have influence. Eleven states elect their commissioners directly, and four of those are on ballots this year, in California, Georgia, Kansas and Oklahoma. All four experienced big jumps in insurance premiums last year.

Meanwhile, 33 of the 39 states in which a governor appoints an insurance commissioner have gubernatorial elections this year. Most of those candidates aren’t discussing home insurance much, even in places like Nebraska, where premiums have risen 20% in the past two years, giving it the country’s fourth-highest costs.

"There’s an education gap" about the impact of local elections on insurance costs that political leaders need to fill, Adcox said. "Voters not being aware of those races can be a barrier to getting them to show up to vote."

The hotter the planet gets, the more chaotic and dangerous its weather will get and the more premiums will become part of the national political conversation. Those all-important food prices are also influenced by climate, as storms, droughts and heat waves affect crops. Gasoline and electricity prices would be less of an issue if we transitioned to cheaper renewable energy and hardened our infrastructure against extreme weather. It wears many disguises, but climate change is always on the ballot.

Mark Gongloff is a Bloomberg Opinion editor and columnist covering climate change. He previously worked for Fortune.com, the Huffington Post and the Wall Street Journal. The opinions expressed by columnists do not necessarily reflect the views of Vermont News & Media.