Hints of active storm season, but low confidence in early forecasts

March 27--ORLANDO -- Following the devastating 2017 hurricane season, a standing-room-only crowd huddled to hear Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach speak at the National Hurricane Conference this week. He was hesitant to give details of his 2018 forecast, which will be released April 5, but hinted that a near-normal to slightly above average season may be imminent if current conditions hold true.

"If hurricane season started today, it would probably be pretty active," said Klotzbach, a perennial favorite at the conference. "But a lot can change between March and the peak of the season. Very small changes in atmospheric patterns can cause big differences in how the oceans respond."

CSU's April forecast is a much-anticipated annual event because it's typically the first of the year, but Klotzbach acknowledges early forecasts are notoriously low in confidence. CSU's 2017 April prediction fell far from target because it anticipated the formation of a summer El Niño that never roared.

El Niño is typically associated with slower hurricane seasons, while La Niña tends to encourage hurricanes.

Still, Klotzbach said there is some "long-term skill" in April forecasts, and he will consider the most recent climate data as he finalizes the April 5 forecast. CSU updates its forecast periodically throughout the season.

This year, most forecast models are predicting a neutral climate pattern through hurricane season, which means the warmer temperatures of the Atlantic would play a bigger role in a more active season.

"Hurricanes live off warm ocean water," Klotzbach said.

The estimated 150-person audience for Klotzbach's atmospheric science lesson is testament to a heightened interest in what Mother Nature plans for this year following the hyper-active 2017 season that spawned 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.

Hurricane season runs June 1 through November.

Attendance at the conference this year is about 15 percent higher than in 2017, and includes emergency managers, meteorologists and private sector companies from the fuel and insurance industries. Municipal leaders from Caribbean islands to New England also want to learn how to improve operations if a repeat of 2017 occurs.

"I think people are finally saying, maybe it's time to do something," said John Wilson, planning committee chairman for the conference, which is in its 39th year. "We seem to be plowing the same fields over and over again. I hope people get a lot of training and it sticks."

How to get gas to people during evacuations was a key discussion Monday as Florida officials recounted challenges of finding truck drivers to journey into the Keys before Hurricane Irma, and store employees willing to man the registers as the storm approached.

An estimated 6.8 million people evacuated in Florida for Hurricane Irma, which hit near Cudjoe Key as a Category 4 storm on Sept. 10.

Kelley Smith Burk, director of Florida's Office of Energy in the department of agriculture, said 3 million of the people who fled were "shadow evacuees" -- people not in evacuation zones who left on their own.

"We need to encourage citizens to know their evacuation zone and know their home," she said. "If we can reduce the amount of evacuees, it will decrease demand on fuel supply, traffic congestion and open up hotel rooms."

Palm Beach County Emergency Management Director Bill Johnson will speak during Wednesday's general session on getting accurate and timely information to the public during storms, while former National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb will discuss inland flooding dangers.

"We went 11 years after Wilma without a hurricane hitting the U.S., and the concern had been about hurricane amnesia," Klotzbach said. "I don't think that's going to be a problem this year."

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