Here's another sign that hurricane season is more active this year

Five weeks into the 2023 Atlantic basin hurricane season, we've already recorded three tropical storms -- a sign of an unusually active year.

The average year doesn't see its third named storm until Aug. 3, nine weeks into the season, according to the National Hurricane Center. So we're about month ahead of the norm.

That worrisome note was underscored this week when forecasters at Colorado State University revised their season prediction upwards, to 18 named storms between June 1 and Nov. 30; in their preseason forecast, they had predicted 13. (Separately, the government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminisration gave a preseason prediction of 12 to 17, or near-normal activity, and has not updated it since.)

Two big factors are at play in 2023:

The presence of a Pacific El Niño, a cyclical weather phenomenon that causes warming in the Pacific Ocean and increases wind shear in the Atlantic. The rise in wind shear makes it harder for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the Atlantic basin.A rare Atlantic Niño, or Dakar Niño, that is warming Atlantic waters to above-normal levels. Warmer water makes the basin more fertile for tropical weather. development.

Colorado State analysts now downplay the likelihood that the wind shear reduction will offset the effect of warmer water, thus their new forecast of more named storms.

So far this season, we've had tropical storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy. Here is the complete list of 2023 hurricane names.

How to prepare

Louisianans are especially sensitive to the possibility of tropical storms and hurricanes, as they have a history of being hit. Three of the most expensive hurricanes in U.S. history struck Louisiana.

To prepare for hurricane season, officials recommend you stock these items if you are not evacuating:

First aid kitFire extinguisherUnscented bleachHand sanitizerToilet paperBatteriesFlashlightsInsect repellantSunscreenBottled water for at least three days, in case the municipal supply is contaminated. Allow a gallon of water a day for each person in the household.Non-perishable food such as canned soup and vegetablesA manual can opener, in the case commercial electricity fails.

If you expect to evacuate in advance of a storm:

Plot your route well ahead of timePack at least three days of clothing and personal itemsMake sure you have at least one extra refill of all your vital medicationsPut all important paperwork in one easy-to-find container. Examples are your property insurance and pet vaccination records, that latter sometimes required by many evacuation shelters.

Check out our hurricane evacuation and packing checklist for more tips.