Getting voters out the key to runoffs Getting voters back out key to 6th District, lieutenant governor runoffs

The runoffs for the Republican nominations for U.S. House 6th District and N.C. lieutenant governor will come down to the candidates' ability to attract the majority who didn't vote for them Tuesday, according to political analysts.

According to the N.C. State Board of Elections, if no primary candidate receives more than 30% of the vote, the candidate who receives the second-highest vote total can call for a second primary set for May 14.

Mark Walker and Forsyth County District Attorney Jim O'Neill requested a runoff in the 6th District and lieutenant governor races, respectively, shortly after Election Day results reached completion and unofficial status. Voting canvases are set to be completed March 15.

The biggest challenge facing both second-place finishers is that the typical primary runoff turns out about 10% of voters. By comparison, 24% of voters participated in Tuesday's primary.

In Forsyth County, there will be early voting only at the county Board of Elections office.

The 6th District is winner-take-all with no Democratic opponent in the November general election.

Addison McDowell (26.1% of the vote), who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, and Walker (24.1%) combined for just more than 50% of the vote out of the five candidates.

Their runoff campaigns will run through convincing supporters of Christian Castelli (21.1%), Bo Hines (14.4%), High Point mayor Jay Wagner (9.2%) and Dr. Mary Ann Contogiannis (5.1%) to show up to vote for them.

Meanwhile, the challenge is larger in the lieutenant governor runoff since Hal Weatherman (19.6%) and O'Neill (15.8%) combined barely gained 35% of the vote in the 11-candidate field.

"Can either candidate convince their own supporters to turn out again in May? Can either candidate convince supporters of the other candidates to return to the polls?" asked Mitch Kokai, senior policy analyst with conservative think tank John Locke Foundation.

"The Trump endorsement helped push Addison McDowell into the top two, but it wasn't enough to bump him over 30% to secure an outright win.

"Now, he'll have to find a message that will attract people who voted for the other candidates."

Kokai said Walker's path will require "appealing to at least some of the Castelli voters, even though their candidate's supporters hit him hard."

The likely low runoff turnout "makes it more difficult to figure out who will get out to vote," said Martin Kifer, political science professor at High Point University.

"In a race like this (6th District), outside money could impact the outcome as well."

6th District

The 6th District runoff is among the most intriguing U.S. House races nationally with political analysts saying it would serve as a measuring stick of an endorsement from Trump.

It is the most Triad-centric of the four U.S. House districts representing the region.

The district includes Kernersville, Walkertown and the southern Forsyth border with Davidson and Davie counties through the 2030 general election barring a successful legal challenge.

The 6th portion of Guilford forms a loop shaped like a backward C around the county's suburban communities and High Point. Also included is all of Davidson, Davie and Rowan and about 20% of Cabarrus County.

In December, Trump surprisingly endorsed a relative newcomer in McDowell - who worked as a constituent liaison in U.S. Sen. Ted Budd, R-N.C.,'s congressional office - over three previous congressional candidates.

That included Castelli, who was the district's Republican candidate in 2022, Walker, who served the 6th from 2015 to 2021, and Hines, who Trump endorsed in the 2022 13th District race.

McDowell is a health-insurance industry lobbyist for Blue Cross Blue Shield N.C. McDowell could not be reached for comment on the runoff.

He posted on his X webpage that "the fight for #NC06 continues!"

"The so-called 'experts' said I had no shot in this race, but you proved them wrong last night. We won overall, but we can't get complacent.

"We have to keep our foot on the gas and secure a victory so we can fight like hell with President Trump in Washington. You have my word: I'm going to work tirelessly to win this thing on May 14. Onward!"

Walker declared his candidacy for the 6th shortly after the legislative passage of the new Republican-drawn congressional map.

He had struggled for months to gain traction in his aborted campaign for the 2024 Republican governor nomination against Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who handily defeated state Treasurer Dale Folwell and Bill Graham on Tuesday.

Walker could not be reached for comment by the Journal.

He posted on his Facebook campaign page that "I extend my sincerest thanks to each of you for your unwavering support. Your generosity, hard work and faith have brought us this far. ... But, we still have more work to do."

Lieutenant governor

Neither O'Neill nor Weatherman could be reached for comment by the Journal.

O'Neill is in his third bid for a statewide Council of State seat.

In 2016, O'Neill lost in the Republican attorney general primary. In 2020, he was defeated narrowly by incumbent Democrat Josh Stein. O'Neill lost by 13,622 votes statewide and lost by 22,844 votes in Forsyth County.

Weatherman said on his Facebook campaign page "thank you to the people who turned out, voted and delivered us a first-place finish."

"Onward to the May 14 runoff. We will not be outworked and will settle for nothing, but all-out victory!"

Although the lieutenant governor's role is mostly ceremonial with limited authority, it has served in the past as a stepping stone to running for governor.

Democrats Luther Hodges, Bob Scott, Jim Hunt and Beverly Perdue all served as lieutenant governor before winning election as governor.

Robinson is facing Stein in what is projected to be one of the nation's most expensive and heated governor races.

GOP post-mortem

There's a post-mortem aspect to the Republican primaries as well.

The most noteworthy was Hines' fourth-place finish in the 6th District race.

Hines' primary opponents, particularly Castelli and Walker, attacked him over exploring in 2022, running in three different congressional districts - none of which were the 6th. Hines lost to Democrat Wiley Nickel by a 51.6% to 46.4% margin in the 2022 13th District race.

"Hines' general election loss in 2022 in the winnable 13th District probably set him back with Republican voters," Kokai said.

"Plus, he was up against better-known alternatives with closer ties to the district this time around.

"His political future certainly has taken a hit," Kokai said. "He might need to think about building up a resume of accomplishments before taking on his next campaign."

State Rep. Jon Hardister, R-Guilford, and of Whitsett, lost his bid for the Republican nomination for state Labor commissioner to replace a retiring Josh Dobson. Luke Farley won with 36.9% of the vote, followed by Hardister at 28.1%.

Kokai said among the factors in Farley's win may have been the endorsement of former Labor commissioner Cherie Berry.

"I suspect most Raleigh insiders would have pegged Hardister as the likely winner in the Republican labor commissioner's race," Kokai said.

"An endorsement from the 'elevator queen' (Berry) and a willingness to travel to many conservative and Republican events across the state appear to have made the difference for Farley."

Catherine Truitt lost her reelection for state Superintendent of Public Instruction by a 52.1% to 47.9% margin to far-right newcomer Michele Morrow. Truitt was the only incumbent Council of State member seeking re-election to be defeated.

"One lesson from Tuesday's primaries is that voters did not put much value on governing experience, in the sense that in a number of races candidates lacking governing experience outpolled candidates with a lot of governing experience," said John Dinan, political science professor at Wake Forest University who is a national expert on state legislatures.

"This was a theme in several Council of State races, where Michele Morrow defeated incumbent Catherine Truitt in the biggest surprise of the night, and Luke Farley defeating long-serving state legislator Jon Hardister for the Republican labor commissioner nomination."

Dinan said the same theme carried over to the U.S. House 6th and 10th District cases.

Pat Harrigan, who had Robinson's endorsement, held off four-term state Rep. Grey Mills of Iredell County in the 10th District by a 41.2% to 38.9% margin.

"In all of these races, candidates without governing experience prevailed over candidates who have held public office, perhaps signaling more generally that public office-holding is not valued by primary voters in the way that once was the case," Dinan said.

Dinan said the other noteworthy story from Tuesday featured challenges from progressive groups to incumbent Democratic legislators who were seen as too moderate and too willing to side with Republicans on key votes.

"These challenges had a mixed record and were partly successful in some cases in defeating Michael Wray and Mike Woodard, but unsuccessful with Cecil Brookman (of Guilford County) narrowly fended off a serious challenge from James Adams."

[email protected]@rcraverWSJ