Findings from South Dakota State University in the Area of Risk Management Reported (Causal inference framework for generalizable safety effect…

Findings from South Dakota State University in the Area of Risk Management Reported (Causal inference framework for generalizable safety effect estimates)

By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Weekly News -- Investigators publish new report on Risk Management. According to news reporting originating from Brookings, South Dakota, by VerticalNews correspondents, research stated, "This study integrates a causal inference framework to the Empirical Bayes (EB) before-after method to develop generalizable safety effect estimates (i.e., crash modification factor (CMF)). The method considers approaches to estimate the average treatment effect for the treated (ATT), average treatment effect for the untreated (ATU), and average treatment effect (ATE)."

Funders for this research include FHWA’s Universities, Grants program.

Our news editors obtained a quote from the research from South Dakota State University, "The current EB method is shown to estimate ATT while ATE is what is typically desired in traffic safety research. Modifications to the current ER method to estimate ATU and ATE are provided. The method is then applied to a dataset with a 'no-treatment' scenario where the treatments were: 1) randomly selected and 2) selected based on crash history. Given the 'no-treatment' outcome, it is known that the CMFs should have a value of 1 in order to be considered accurate. The standard negative binomial and mixed effects negative binomial regression models were applied in the analysis. It was found that, of the two regression methods, the ATE CMFs developed using the standard negative binomial were the most accurate."

According to the news editors, the research concluded: "Finally, potential sources of bias in the EB method are discussed."

For more information on this research see: Causal inference framework for generalizable safety effect estimates. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2017;104():74-87. Accident Analysis and Prevention can be contacted at: Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, England. (Elsevier - www.elsevier.com; Accident Analysis and Prevention - www.journals.elsevier.com/accident-analysis-and-prevention/)

The news editors report that additional information may be obtained by contacting J.S. Wood, South Dakota State University, Dept. of Civil & Environm Engn, Brookings, SD 57007, United States.

Keywords for this news article include: Brookings, South Dakota, United States, North and Central America, Risk Management, South Dakota State University.

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