Fed economist: Tulsa is a 'pocket of real strength'

Despite Oklahoma's relatively slow job growth last year, Tulsa is faring better, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said.

"One pocket of real strength across the state has been Tulsa," said Cortney Cowley, Oklahoma City branch executive and assistant vice president for the KC Fed.

"This northeast Oklahoma portion of the state has been one where we've actually seen some growth over the last year.

"We've heard a lot, ... so I think there is a lot of optimism in this particular portion of the state," she said.

Cowley made the comments last week during a Rotary Club of Tulsa meeting downtown. About 150 people attended.

She serves as the KC Fed's lead officer and economist in Oklahoma. She also works closely with the OKC branch board of directors and is responsible for briefing KC Fed President Jeff Schmid — a member of the Federal Open Market Committee — on economic conditions and trends throughout the state.

Cowley also serves as a special adviser on agriculture to Miki Bowman, Federal Reserve Board vice chair for supervision, providing expertise on Oklahoma's economic sectors.

Job growth across the state slowed last year, she said.

She added that "especially in rural areas, housing really is the basis of an economy."

"In any roundtable that I have in rural parts of the state, that's usually the first thing we talk about is housing.

"Whether or not they have places for people to live, really determines what types of businesses and industries ... stay in their town," she said, for both employers and potential employees.

She said in Oklahoma the "supply" of labor — the percentage of people actively looking for a job — had a "big" jump in 2023, "primarily driven by our Native American and tribal areas."

"It stayed stable, but now it's kind of come down, as the U.S. as a whole," she said.

"The other reason is immigration. If you dig into the data by its components, one of the segments of the economy by demographics that has highest labor force participation rate is actually Hispanics," she said.

"As we've seen less immigration, we've also seen a drop in labor participation rates."

On the "demand" side, she said: "Firms just aren't hiring as many workers, either. So it's less demand for workers. And that's shown by the hiring rate."

Cowley holds a Ph.D. in agricultural economics from Oklahoma State University, a master's in civil engineering from Colorado State University and a bachelor's in biosystems engineering from OSU.