Creighton’s ‘rural mainstreet’ survey shows small share expect positive outcome from Trump tariffs

Rural residents of many states are nervous about the potential economic impact of tariffs. (Jared Strong/Iowa Capital Dispatch)

OMAHA — Only 9% of bankers responding to Creighton University’s monthly “rural mainstreet” survey across 10 states expect positive outcomes from Trump tariff actions, according to February results released Thursday.

The Omaha university’s survey gauges the economic health of rural America, as seen through the eyes of bank chief executives in rural areas dependent on agriculture and energy. The survey focuses on about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.

Creighton economist Ernie Goss oversees the survey and relayed a remark from Jeffrey Gerhart, chairman of the Bank of Newman Grove in Nebraska and former Chairman of the Independent Community Bankers of America.

“The fallout from the actual tariffs remains to be played out, but I don’t believe that it will be good for the folks down on the farm,” Gerhart said.

He said the U.S. has built good relationships with Mexico and Canada over the years. 

“Working together with Mexico and Canada would be a better course of action than threatening our two longtime trading partners with tariffs,” Gerhart added.

Goss said Mexico was the region’s top destination for ag exports in 2024, accounting for nearly 50% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.

The results showed the region’s overall Rural Mainstreet Index falling below growth neutral for the 17th time in the past 18 months. The February reading slumped to a 38.0, compared to 42.3 in January. 

The index ranges between zero and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing neutral growth.

Also for the region, farmland prices sank for the ninth time in the past 10 months, and retail sales deteriorated to the lowest level since the pandemic.

Narrowing in on individual states, Nebraska’s rural mainstreet Index for February dropped to 37.0 from 39.2 in January. The state’s farmland price index for February dipped to 39.3 from January’s 40.9. And Nebraska’s new hiring index fell to 42.2 from January’s 45.9. 

Besides Nebraska, states surveyed were Iowa, Colorado, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming. The monthly economic survey was launched in 2006 and created by Goss and Bill McQuillan, former chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America.

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