Big money, political gamesmanship shaping O.C. congressional races
On the line are four longtime
But the anti-Trump fervor that could turn the mid-terms into a "Blue Wave" election -- something that national polling shows is possible but far from ordained -- also has prompted a flood of Democratic candidates to enter those contests, threatening to split the vote in a way that could ultimately thwart the party.
In
Though the contests figure to be decided by any number of issues -- shifting demographics, changes in voter-registration makeup, and traditional mid-term backlash -- the elevated stakes have introduced other influences atypical for
Here are three factors to watch over the next eight weeks:rn
1. National parties weighing in
rnNational parties are on the ground. Last year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee opened offices in
The two camps have stuck mostly to advising campaigns and rallying grassroots support by calling potential voters and knocking on doors. The
But more aggressive tactics are anticipated.
Interestingly, both parties have said they might use their resources to do the same thing -- attack Democratic primary candidates.
Fearing an all-
The national party's efforts in
"Grassroots activists have put these races into play, and they deserve to have a Democrat on the ballot this November," said
"As has been the case in the past in
Political scientists say it's unusual for national parties to attack their own candidates in primary races. Some also note it's a high-risk approach.
"It's a strategy that could backfire," said
The tactic already has proved controversial in
In March, the DCCC published opposition research on progressive candidate
It's unclear if anything similar will play out in
Already, the
Before the filing deadline, two of the top
2. How much recognition can self-funding buy?
rnThree of the top seven self-funded House candidates nationally happen to be running in
All three are
That money will give those candidates an enormous leg up in purchasing pricey Southern California TV airtime to boost their name recognition among voters -- a critical issue in races where none of the 23 Democratic candidates has been elected to public office.
"This is exactly the type of race where TV ads can make a great deal of difference," said
In the 39th, 48th, and 49th congressional districts -- the three contests where an all-Republican General Election is possible -- there are six
And each of those five already has run TV ads, something few other Democratic candidates have done locally.
Those dynamics raise the prospect of wealthy
If that money helps create strong name recognition, deep-pocketed candidates could bolster Democratic chances in
If not, Pitney warned that in the most crowded races uninformed voters could drift from front-runners by succumbing to what he calls "The Moe Effect."
"That's when voters choose by going 'Eeny, meeny, miny, moe,'" Pitney said. "Candidates always get some votes."rn
3. Outside money wants a say
rnPolitical Action Committees and special interest groups are expected to pour money into the county soon, in the form of mailers, TV ads and other resources. It'll be a notable change from the county's past primary elections.
In 2016 contests for the four
The current tab includes
Another large commitment has come from 314 Action, a PAC that tries to get scientists elected to public office, which announced it will spend
Recent House races suggest national spending in
In
And in 2016, when
In all, tens of millions of dollars could be spent on congressional politics in
What remains to be seen is: Will it make a difference?
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