ARA Announces Approval of Hurricane Model by Florida Using Climate Conditioning for First Time
This latest version is also the first time ARA has submitted a model with a current, or climate-conditioned, view of hurricane risk rather than a stationary or long-term historical view, and the first model accepted by the FCHLPM to account for climate change.
"This improvement recognizes the evolving nature of hurricane risk, which is driven by changing environmental parameters, such as sea surface temperature and wind shear,” said ARA Principal Engineer
This breakthrough in climate conditioned modeling is made possible by ARA’s unique methodology, allowing for direct input from leading Global Circulation Models (GCM).
“ARA’s engineering approach to catastrophe modeling is first principles, physics based,” Lavelle said. “Our hurricane model has always used physically based inputs, rather than relying solely on statistical modeling or simply claims data.”
ARA’s method of quantifying the effects of climate change on hurricane risk is to allow the hurricane model to ingest predictions of future global temperatures and wind shear from leading GCMs and provide event occurrence rates for any given time frame and carbon emissions scenario that has been modeled with a GCM.
“Environmental parameters are direct inputs to ARA’s unique, physically-based hurricane hazard model,” said Senior Engineer
ARA’s methodology was approved following the final hearing for the model on
The purpose of the FCHLPM, set up by the
ARA’s wind engineering expertise and its state-of-the-art hurricane model, HurLoss ®, provide an independent and highly respected view of hurricane risk to structural engineers, emergency managers, energy producers, and property insurers.
To learn more about HurLoss ® visit www.ara.com/hurloss-platforms/
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George Freimarck Applied Research Associates, Inc. [email protected]
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