AP FACT CHECK: Trump disdained jobless rate, now loves it
Trump raised a red flag about declining jobless numbers during his campaign, so as to deny President
But Trump is seeing red no more. The same stats he assailed in 2015 and 2016 now are his proof of "fantastic," ''terrific" economic progress, for which he wants the credit.
That disconnect is part of why Trump's statements about the economy this past week, some accurate on their face, fall short of the whole truth.
On top of that, Trump made the far-fetched claim that the economy is better than it has ever been. And in a week consumed with the dustup over a government shutdown, Trump's doctor stepped forward with a testament to the president's health that other physicians found to be too rosy.
A look at some recent remarks away from the din of the budget battle:
TRUMP: "Black unemployment is the best it's ever been in recorded history. It's been fantastic. And it's the best number we've had with respect to black unemployment. We've never seen anything even close." — remarks from
THE FACTS: Yes, the black unemployment rate of 6.8 percent is the lowest on record. No, it's not far and away superior to any time in the past. In 2000, it was within one point of today's record for six months, and as low 7 percent.
As Trump was quick to note as a candidate, the unemployment rate only measures people without jobs who are searching for work. Like other demographic groups, fewer African-Americans are working or looking for work than in the past. Just 62.1 percent of blacks are employed or seeking a job, down from a peak of 66.4 percent in 1999.
The black unemployment rate would be much higher if the rate of black labor force participation was near its levels before the Great Recession.
During the campaign, Trump claimed that real unemployment then was a soaring 42 percent. It's not quite clear, but he could have been referring to the percentage of the
TRUMP: "We're making incredible progress. The women's unemployment rate hit the lowest level that it's been in 17 years. Well, that's something. And women in the workforce reached a record high. ... That's really terrific, and especially since it's on my watch." — at women's event Tuesday.
THE FACTS: Again — yes, but. The 4 percent jobless rate for women is at a 17-year low, just as it is for the overall population. But the labor force participation rate by women is lower today than in 2000. The proportion of women in the workforce is not at a record high.
TRUMP: "Our country is doing very well. Economically, we've never had anything like it." — from
THE FACTS: Never say never. The
The economy added about 170,000 new jobs a month during Trump's first year. That was slightly below the average of 185,000 in Obama's last year.
DR.
THE FACTS: Physicians not connected with the
Trump has some things in his favor: "incredible genes, I just assume," said his doctor, and no history of tobacco or alcohol use.
But "by virtue of his age and his gender and the fact he has high cholesterol and that he is in the overweight-borderline obese category, he is at a higher risk for cardiovascular disease," said Dr. Ranit Mishori, a primary care physician and professor of family medicine at
Trump's LDL, the bad cholesterol, registered at 143, a number his doctor wants below 120.
Jackson also said Trump has nonclinical coronary atherosclerosis, commonly known as hardening of the arteries from plaque, which is a combination of calcium and cholesterol.
That's common in people over 65 and can be a silent contributor to coronary heart disease. Jackson's conclusion was based on a coronary calcium score of 133, which Mishori called "a little bit concerning" because it could show mild coronary artery disease, although how to interpret these scores isn't clear-cut. Jackson said he consulted a variety of cardiologists about that calcium score and the consensus was reassuring.
TRUMP: "Americans are more and more pro-life. You see that all the time. In fact, only 12 percent of Americans support abortion on demand at any time." — remarks Friday to opponents of abortion rights.
THE FACTS: Neither side of the abortion debate is scoring breakaway support in public opinion research. Gallup said in conjunction with its poll in June: "The dispersion of abortion views today, with the largest segment of Americans favoring the middle position, is broadly similar to what Gallup has found in four decades of measurement." In short, half said abortion should be "legal only under certain circumstances," identical to a year earlier, while 29 percent said it should be legal in all circumstances. The smallest proportion, 18 percent, said it should always be illegal.
Americans' positions on abortion are sufficiently nuanced that both sides of the debate can find polling that supports their point of view. Polling responses on abortion are also highly sensitive to how the questions are asked.
But in the main, the public is not clamoring for abortion to be banned or to be allowed in all cases.
Trump's claim that only 12 percent support abortion "on demand" may come from a Marist poll sponsored by the
Most polls have found that a distinct minority, though more than 12 percent, think the procedure should be legal in all cases. The percentage was 25 percent in an AP-NORC poll, 21 percent in a
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EDITOR'S NOTE _ A look at the veracity of claims by political figures


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