Analysis: Democrats bet health care bill will help them oust U.S. Rep. Brian Mast

June 02--Democrats are betting low approval ratings for the GOP health care overhaul will help them win back a coveted Treasure Coast congressional seat.

U.S. Rep. Brian Mast is starting strong going into the 2018 election, coming off an impressive 10-point win last year.

But Democrats already are targeting the freshman Republican from Palm City for voting in favor of the controversial American Health Care Act that 55 percent of Americans view unfavorably, according to a May poll by the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. Under the bill approved by the House, the number of uninsured people would rise by 23 million in the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Democrats hope grass-roots momentum, President Donald Trump's slumping approval ratings and voter anger over the bill will ignite a Democratic takeover of Congress. They envision something similar to the GOP wave after passage of the Affordable Care Act, aka "Obamacare," in 2010.

Mast has come under attack by such groups as Indivisible, a grass-roots movement created to resist Trump's agenda, as have GOP lawmakers across the country.

More: Mast and Indivisible foes trade barbs

Mast was one of two Florida lawmakers targeted in an online ad campaign against 30 Republicans who voted for the health care overhaul. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democrats to the House, launched the campaign.

Tough to beat

Ousting Mast, however, will be a steep climb.

He's raised almost $400,000 since January, and his seat is rated "solid Republican" by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan election analysis website.

District 18 leans slightly Republican; Trump won the district by nine points. And Mast has established himself as an independent voice, not a D.C. insider, said Inside Elections publisher Nathan Gonzales.

Being an Army veteran and double amputee also plays to Mast's favor, Gonzales said.

"I think Mast is going to be difficult to defeat," Gonzales said. "At the same time, I don't think the race is over; in some cases, the race hasn't even started yet."

Gonzales also cautioned about comparing the role health care will play in 2018 to what it did in the GOP's takeover of 63 House seats in 2010. Disapproval of Obamacare that year was a catalyst, but other issues induced voters to reject Democrats: the economy, the Wall Street and auto industry bailouts and the economic stimulus bill.

Still, Gonzales expects Democrats to pick up several seats next year.

And it's not clear whether health care still will be such a hot issue when congressional elections take place in November 2018. The Senate is crafting its own version of the legislation, and the changes could change some voters' minds.

"I think it's much too early to tell on the 2018 election," said Martin County Republican Executive Committee chairman Toby Overdorf. "I believe the opposition is trying to figure out where they want to stand."

More: Mast calls health care overhaul a "good bill"

Democratic field

Even if health care proves to be toxic for the GOP, Democrats will have to find a formidable candidate to go up against Mast. Not only is he considered a war hero, but he's also in tune with the district's top local issue, Lake Okeechobee discharges, filing a bill to expedite a reservoir to curb the releases.

There are no official Democratic candidates yet, but several people are showing interest, said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Cole Leiter.

Pam Keith, whose grass-roots campaign for the U.S. Senate garnered 15 percent of Democratic primary votes last year, has set up a political committee to explore a candidacy. Retired Army Maj. Corinna Robinson, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in South Dakota in 2014 and now lives in Tampa, is considering jumping in.

Keith, a lawyer and veteran, said she's energized by her meetings with groups such as Indivisible. She also said many constituents are unhappy with Mast's alignment with Trump.

She doesn't know when she'll decide whether to run.

"The time is now," Keith said. "We have a representative who's not shown up for his constituents."

Liability or asset?

Mast is in a tough predicament. Voting against repealing Obamacare could jeopardize his standing with Republican voters. Trump won District 18 -- even carrying Democratic-leaning St. Lucie County -- promising to repeal the 2010 law. But the details of the overhaul could anger moderate and independent constituents.

Republicans seem to be betting the bill the House passed in May will help incumbents keep their seats. A super PAC created by former Trump staffers began airing ads urging voters to call Mast and thank him for standing with the president to repeal Obamacare.

Yet a poll conducted in Mast's district and 14 others shows the majority of voters who know how their representatives voted on the bill said they would prefer to elect a Democrat next year. The poll was commissioned by two Democratic groups, Patriot Majority USA and Priorities USA.

Mast has defended his vote, saying the House bill prohibits insurers from denying coverage to people with preexisting conditions and will lower insurance costs.

The plan, however, allows insurers to charge those with preexisting conditions more in states that get a waiver, and people who go without insurance for more than 63 days would see their premiums go up. Older Americans also could pay more while younger people would get a break.

"This (bill) is very, very strong on preexisting conditions," Mast said. "It's going to lower costs for people immediately."

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