Actuaries examine drivers of substance-related mortality

CHICAGO, Nov. 13, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- A study by the Society of Actuaries  Research Institute found that fentanyl and synthetic opioids continue to be a leading cause of overdose deaths in the U.S., despite drug-related mortality decreasing in 2023 and provisional data suggesting a further decrease in 2024. The SOA Research Institute also conducted a U.S. survey of over a thousand adults on perceptions of drug use, which found that one in four survey respondents stated they know someone who has abused opioids.

The SOA Research Institute report, U.S. Drug Overdose Crisis — Past, Present, and Future: A Dive Into Trends and Drivers of Substance-Related Mortality, examined the trends and drivers of substance-related deaths in the U.S. The study combines a comprehensive medical literature review, discussions with experts, and analyses of both general and insured population datasets. The research report draws upon lessons from the waves of different drug types, drug contamination, polysubstance use, COVID-19, recent advancements in treatment availability, and regulations and drug supply in the U.S. relative to other countries. Findings provided a range of insights surrounding substance use disorder, drug overdose and alcohol-induced mortality, and considerations for insurers.

Substance use, overdose and alcohol-related deaths: Report findings

• There were higher rates of drug-related deaths among men and unmarried individuals, as well as those working in natural resources, construction, maintenance, and service occupations.
• The average age for drug overdose deaths is 45; more than 30 years younger than the average age of all-cause mortality.
• About 25% to 30% of deaths for the 25-39 age group are attributed to drug overdoses.
• Beginning in 2019, people with a college education experience higher rates of alcohol-related deaths than drug deaths, for the first time since 2002.

The study also finds that substances mixed in with black-market fentanyl contribute to the synthetic opioid continuing to be a leading cause of drug overdose death in the U.S. At the same time, alcohol consumption is far more widespread in the U.S. than illicit drugs (excluding marijuana) and yet accounts for fewer deaths in the general population.

“Although it’s unclear how the U.S. drug overdose crisis will unfold, recent drops in deaths—possibly thanks to better harm-reduction efforts—are encouraging,” said Kara Clark, FSA, MAAA, Senior Research Actuary, SOA Research Institute. “Continued research into substance-related deaths and their drivers will help us understand both the short- and long-term impact.”

Understanding public awareness of substance abuse issues

In summer 2025, the SOA Research Institute surveyed 1,005 adults nationwide to gauge Americans’ attitudes and perceptions of drug and alcohol use. A comparison of respondents’ experiences related to alcohol and opioid abuse are listed below:

Recent improvement in overdose mortality may be due to harm-reduction measures, many of which have recently become more widely available in the U.S. The survey found that knowledge of some of these measures has become widespread, with 78% of respondents reporting their awareness of Narcan. However, only 1 in 10 reported carrying it. Despite the recent decline in drug overdose deaths, a slight majority of Americans, 51%, believe opioid deaths will increase over the next five years, and only 16% believe the death rate will decrease.

Access the full report to learn more about the study and access survey results.