Boston Herald Joe Battenfeld column

Sept. 30--Time for Massachusetts Democrats and Martha Coakley to bring the panic button out of mothballs. The Democratic gubernatorial nominee hasn't pulled away from GOP opponent Charlie Baker and in fact may be losing ground.

Famed "FiveThirtyEight" election forecaster Nate Silver last night posed the question: "Martha Choakley?" So hurtful.

A new Suffolk University/Boston Herald poll shows voters just aren't warming up to Coakley. Nearly as many voters view the attorney general unfavorably as favorably.

But Baker remains relatively untarnished with just five weeks to go until Election Day. Only 27 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of the 2010 GOP nominee, way less than Democrats Deval Patrick, Barack Obama, Ed Markey or Elizabeth Warren.

That means Democrats have one strategy left: Smear Baker.

But the Coakley campaign can't seem to come up with a good way to do that. First, it was "Big Dig Baker." That tanked. Maybe because it's about 6 years old and the Big Dig isn't springing big leaks anymore.

Then Coakley opened up her fall campaign by attacking Baker for not signing the "people's pledge." Are any voters really angry about that?

Next it was time for Democrats to talk about profiteering health insurance CEO Baker who plunders from the middle class while his rich friends guzzle champagne. Baker looks more like a milk guy than a champagne guy.

Now Coakley has switched gears and put all her money on the "Baker hates women" theme. That definitely has the most potential, but the Suffolk/Herald poll shows a lot of voters, even Democrats, aren't buying it yet. In fact, one in five Democratic voters are backing Baker right now, according to the poll.

The only good news for the Coakley campaign is that there's still plenty of time for Baker to blow it. Massachusetts Republicans don't exactly have a great track record winning elections or turning out voters.

Baker and his campaign also are prone to stumble and react poorly to problems. When the Sharman Sacchetti "sweetheart" kerfuffle broke, the Baker campaign could have changed the subject by announcing a bold new initiative, or used humor to defuse the situation. Instead, Baker offered a lame apology that made it seem like he just ran over a grandmother.

The other way for Baker to lose the election is if more voters drift toward the three independent candidates. Right now the spoilers are getting only 4 percent, but that could change if Baker does poorly in the debates.

That means conservatives and independent voters who don't like Coakley have a real decision to make in the coming weeks: Suck it up and support Baker or cast a protest vote and possibly elect a Democrat again.

___

(c)2014 the Boston Herald

Visit the Boston Herald at www.bostonherald.com

Distributed by MCT Information Services