168K in state could lose health insurance

More than 168,000 Connecticut residents are projected to lose their health insurance coverage over the next 10 years as a result of President Donald Trump's so-called "Big Beautiful Bill," likely resulting in higher health-care costs for all residents, according to a new study.

The study from CT DataHaven details the significant consequences for health-care coverage in Connecticut due to the passage of Trump's budget bill.

Signed into law July 4, the legislation is projected to result in at least 10 million people losing their health insurance nationally by 2034, including significantly more than 100,000 Connecticut residents, according to the study.

Citing an analysis by Manatt Health, CT DataHaven's study estimates that more than 168,000 people in Connecticut will lose their Medicaid coverage over the next 10 years.

Individual municipalities are projected to see hundreds, if not thousands, of residents losing coverage.

DataHaven relied on these numbers, along with those from the Connecticut Department of Social Services, to estimate how many people will lose Medicaid and Access Health CT coverage in individual municipalities, as well as by income, race and ethnicity, and other characteristics.

"Millions of Americans, including thousands of Connecticut residents, will lose their health insurance because" of the federal legislation, Access Health CT CEO James Michel said shortly after the bill was signed into law. "These changes can be expected to increase costs for customers here in Connecticut, and nationwide, and create barriers to financial help."

The law is also projected to have a severe impact on Connecticut's health insurance marketplace, as Access Health CT projects it will result in up to 35% of its more than 150,000 customers losing coverage over the next decade.

Hartford is expected to be the hardest hit by the new federal law, with about 13,000 people projected to lose Medicaid coverage, or about 11% of the capitol city's entire population.

Bridgeport is also projected to see about 13,000 people lose Medicaid coverage, and Waterbury and New Haven are projected to each see 11,000 people lose coverage. Rural parts of the state would also be significantly affected.

For example, in state House District 51, which includes parts of Putnam, Killingly and Thompson, about 1,200 people is expected to lose Medicaid coverage. That's about 5% of the district's total population.

Lower-income residents are expected to be affected the most, with about 102,000 Connecticut residents living below 200% of the federal poverty level projected to lose Medicaid coverage.

The law is also expected to disproportionately impact minority populations.

While the largest number of projected losses is that of the state's white population, the 71,000 people projected to lose health-care coverage represents only 3% of the population. By comparison, 9% of the Latino population and 8% of the Black population are expected to lose coverage.

Single-parent families or other nonmarried households are also projected to be disproportionately affected.

Stamford and Bridgeport are projected to be the two municipalities with the largest number of people losing their Access Health CT insurance coverage, but rural communities will also be significantly impacted as well.

A driving force behind the projected coverage losses is the law's work requirement provisions that make it necessary for certain benchmarks to be met in order to stay on Medicaid.

Beginning Jan. 1, 2027, recipients must show that they have worked, volunteered or attended school at least 80 hours per month for three consecutive months to maintain their coverage.

The law also makes changes to eligibility for immigrants, lowers the amount that states such as Connecticut can tax health care providers, and cuts SNAP nutritional benefits.

The policy changes could result in higher health care costs and insurance premiums, and/or reduced services for all residents, according to the report.

"The legislation is projected to dramatically increase the cost of health insurance enrollment through Access Health CT," according to CT DataHaven.