11 a.m. update: Florence could bring ‘life-threatening’ storm surge to NC coast

Sept. 11--11 a.m. update: Florence continues plodding toward NC coast

WILMINGTON -- The track of Hurricane Florence remains on course to slam into the North Carolina coast, although the exact location remains to be determined -- with all of Southeastern North Carolina still well within the storm's "cone of uncertainty."

The National Hurricane Center's 11 a.m. update showed Florence to be roughly 900 miles east-southeast of Bald Head Island, moving at 16 mph in a west-northwest direction.

The powerful storm had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, classifying it as a Category 4 hurricane.

The hurricane center said Florence is expected to begin re-strengthening later today and is expected to continue getting stronger into Wednesday. While the storm will weaken before making landfall, it is still expected to be a major hurricane -- Category 3 or stronger -- when it comes ashore.

Storm surge from Florence could reach up to 6 feet south of the Cape Fear River, and up to 12 feet between the Cape Fear and Cape Lookout. The hurricane center said "life-threatening storm surge is possible along the coasts of North and South Carolina."

A hurricane watch is in effect for all of North Carolina. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area and is typically issued 48 hours before the arrival of tropical storm-force winds -- sustained winds of 39 mph or stronger.

The 11 a.m. update showed the projected path of Florence to continue its slight turn to the north, with the center of the "cone of uncertainty" heading over Onslow County.

If that track holds, the northeast quadrant of the storm -- the most dangerous part of a hurricane, which spins counterclockwise -- would hit Carteret County and the Cape Lookout area.

Along with wind gusts expected to be well above 100 mph, emergency officials are extremely concerned about Florence bringing up to a foot or more of rain to inland areas of Eastern North Carolina that have historically had trouble dealing with heavy rain events. Many of the areas that could get soaked arethat have yet to fully recover from the flooding caused by Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

"We're looking at probably stronger than Fran," said Tom Collins, Pender County's emergency management director, referring to the 1996 Category 3 hurricane that hammered beach towns in New Hanover and Pender counties. "It's going to be worse than Fran."

>>READ MORE: Click here for complete coverage of Hurricane Florence.

9 a.m. update: Wilmington region under hurricane watch

The Wilmington region was placed under hurricane and storm surge watches Tuesday morning as Hurricane Florence continued churning toward the region.

"Life threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coast," Steven Pfaff, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, said in a briefing at 7 a.m. Tuesday. "Damaging hurricane force winds are likely along portions of the coast as well. The damaging winds could also spread well inland."

On Tuesday morning, President Donald Trump signed an emergency declaration for North Carolina, making federal emergency aid available to the state to respond to Hurricane Florence. The order is retroactive to Sept. 7 and authorizes the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide federal resources "to alleviate the impacts of the emergency."

The storm, which became a powerful, category 4 hurricane Monday, had maximum sustained winds of 140 mph as it moved west-northwest at 15 mph about 975 miles from Wilmington, according to a National Hurricane Center advisory issued at 5 a.m. Tuesday.

It is expected to start delivering tropical force winds early Thursday before making landfall as a "high end" category 3 hurricane early Friday morning.

>>READ MORE: Click here for complete coverage of Hurricane Florence.

The latest models released Tuesday morning show that Florence has taken a slightly northward track, with the eye making landfall about 100 miles northeast of Wilmington -- on Monday, models showed the hurricane taking dead aim at the Port City. But Victoria Oliva, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, said the new models do not mean people should breathe a sigh of relief.

"We should definitely be concerned. There is almost no chance of it turning out to sea," she said. The storm is "currently 400 miles wide. Overall, both Carolinas are going to see impacts from the storm."

The storm surge and hurricane watches extend from Edisto Beach, S.C., to North Carolina's border with Virginia, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Oliva said Florence has the potential to continue strengthening Tuesday, possibly reaching category 5 status, which means maximum sustained winds of more than 158 mph.

In addition to winds and storm surges, weather officials said Florence will slow once it makes landfall, delivering tropical force winds and drenching rains to the Carolinas through Sunday.

"The models keep showing it's going to stall when it reaches inland, which means lots of rain," Oliva said. "It's one of the biggest threats."

The latest forecast calls for most of the rain to fall northeast of the Wilmington region, which is still expected to receive up to 10 inches in some areas. The National Weather Service predicted up to 21 inches of rain in some areas, including Pamlico County.

Brunswick County and several municipalities in Southeastern North Carolina have already ordered a mandatory evacuation of coastal areas. The towns of Kure Beach and Carolina Beach also ordered mandatory evacuations, with Carolina Beach officials requiring residents to be off the island by 8 p.m. Wednesday.

Wrightsville Beach also ordered a mandatory evacuation beginning at 8 a.m. Wednesday.

New Hanover County recommended a voluntary evacuation Monday evening, saying residents should find a safe location by 8 p.m. Wednesday. A shelter for residents, including those with pets, will open at Trask Middle School at 7 p.m. Tuesday. Another shelter at Southeast Raleigh Magnet High School at 2600 Rock Quarry Road in Raleigh will open for New Hanover County residents at 6 p.m. Tuesday.

In an appearance in Wilmington on Monday, Gov. Roy Cooper said he had activated 200 National Guard troops to be ready to respond to the storm and activated the state emergency operations center in Raleigh. While the governor said he cannot order mandatory evacuations on his own, he would encourage counties to do so.

Reporter Tim Buckland can be reached at 910-343-2217 or Tim.Buckland@StarNewsOnline.com.

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