Woes of possible recession persist
CHARLOTTE –
"It depends almost entirely on what the
The
"There will be a significant impact to the economy in 2023 if we get two 50 basis point increases in November and December," he said.
Connaughton said there are two big stories to watch:
The decline in
The impact inflation is having on the economy and the
Gross Domestic Product Analysis
For 2022, annual real (inflation-adjusted) North Carolina GDP is expected to increase by 2.1% over the 2021 level, according to the report. This growth will represent the second full year of growth since COVID-19.
For the fourth quarter, GDP is expected to grow by an annualized rate of 1.3%.
This year, Connaughton forecasts an output increase for 10 of the state's 15 economic sectors. The sectors with the strongest expected growth rates include:
Hospitality and Leisure Services: 10.3%
Information: 8.6%
Agriculture: 7.8%
Business and professional services: 6.2%
Other: 3.7%
Three sectors are expected to experience growth rates below the overall state growth rate of 2.1%:
Manufacturing: 2.1%
Finance, insurance, and real estate: 1%
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities: 1%
Employment
According to the report, all 14 of the state's nonagricultural sectors are expected to experience employment increases during 2022. The sectors with the strongest expected employment increases are:
Information: 6.0%
Business and professional services: 5.8%
2023 Outlook
The
All 15 of the state's economic sectors are expected to experience output growth in 2023. The strongest expected growth sectors are:
Hospitality and leisure services: 4.2%
Information: 2.9%
Other: 2.7%
The North Carolina Economic Forecast, celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, is published quarterly by UNC Charlotte's
The Fourth Quarter North Carolina Economic Forecast Report will be released in December.
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