San Antonio Express-News: GOP dilemma: Trump ‘distractions’ could threaten Brady’s tax reform push
With the health care repeal effort in shambles, the administration's hopes now turn to tax reform, where a prominent Texan,
Standing outside former President
Facing political turbulence in
Among them are former House Speaker
Brady, one of the six top policymakers in
"I believe we can do it, and that's what we're working on right now,"
In an effort to jump-start the process, Trump delivered a speech on
Despite its surface appeal, the plan won't be an easy sell in
Altogether, a complicated smorgasbord of federal tax deductions and credits is estimated to have cost the government more than
Brady and House Speaker
"There is no perfect way to tax, but there are proven ways to grow jobs and paychecks," said Brady, who chairs the tax-writing
His committee's website trumpets an analysis by the conservative
Filing tax returns would be so simple, Brady says, the average taxpayer could do it on a postcard.
But it's been more than a year since Brady rolled out the
Given the upcoming congressional battles over raising the nation's debt limit and passing spending bills to keep the government open past
"I don't think it's very likely," said
The distractions include Trump's recent attacks on top
The president didn't make the task any easier in a recent campaign rally in
Republican leaders in
Unified on taxes
On tax reform, however, Brady maintains that
That unity, however, has come at a price. Brady was forced to drop a plan to slap a 20 percent "border adjustment" tax on imports, a measure that sharply divided
He has yet to propose an alternative funding mechanism, though he suggests that some of the needed revenue is hidden in a labyrinth of the
Significant procedural hurdles remain as well.
To get around a likely Democratic filibuster in the
But there are limits. The reconciliation rule means that any Republican tax cuts would require offsetting revenues within a 10-year budget window, making them "budget neutral" -- meaning they couldn't increase the deficit. Most analysts say that will limit how far
A more immediate problem facing Brady is that the reconciliation process first requires that
"No budget, no tax reform," Brady said.
To beat a filibuster,
"The idea is not just to roll it out, but to roll over us as they did in the health care bill," Doggett said. "It ought to be a lesson that locking things up from view and pushing things through in a high-handed manner won't work."
Conservative groups behind the tax reform push say they are heartened by what they see as greater Republican unity around the tax agenda than there was for repealing the Affordable Care Act.
But the issue is every bit as complicated and wonky, and the collision of divergent interests perhaps even more intense. Only two cherished write-offs seem to be off the table: the deduction for charitable giving and the popular mortgage interest deduction, though there have been calls to cap the mortgage interest write-off.
"There's a reason tax reform hasn't been done since 1986," said
Corporate loopholes
Liberal groups see the entire tax reform project as a cover to reduce corporate tax rates, while at the same time preserving cherished tax breaks such as the so-called carried-interest loophole for certain fund managers, venture capitalists and private equity investors.
The issue came to a head recently when Treasury Secretary
"Secretary Mnuchin's private equity friends are rejoicing," said former BlackRock managing director
Compounding the public relations hit was Mnuchin's new wife,
Brady said no decisions have been made about the carried-interest loophole, which allows fund managers to pay income taxes at lower investment rates, rather than as wage or salary income, even though their own money is not at risk.
They also warn that even more tax breaks for the super rich, who pay the majority of all taxes, would undermine the nation's commitment to infrastructure and social programs such as
Brady's argument is that the economic stimulus of tax relief will translate into more revenue, an argument that echoes the supply-side economics of the Reagan era. "Nothing strengthens
But even Brady's backers say that his opportunity, which he often describes as "once in a lifetime," may be short-lived.
"If they go into 2018, the odds of achieving tax reform go down," Phillips said, "because election-year politics make politicians even more timid."
Read this original document at: https://doggett.house.gov/media-center/in-the-news/san-antonio-express-news-gop-dilemma-trump-distractions-could-threaten
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