Researchers at Faculty of Psychology Target Risk Management (Effects of Acknowledging Uncertainty about Earthquake Risk Estimates on San Francisco…
Researchers at Faculty of Psychology Target Risk Management (Effects of Acknowledging Uncertainty about Earthquake Risk Estimates on San Francisco Bay Area Residents' Beliefs, Attitudes, and Intentions)
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Our news editors obtained a quote from the research from the Faculty of Psychology, "The uncertainty acknowledgment increased belief that these specific experts were more honest and open, and led to statistically (but not substantively) significant increases in trust in seismic experts generally only for the 20% probability (vs. certainty) and shorter versus longer time period. The acknowledgment did not change judged risk, preparedness intentions, or mitigation policy support. Probability effects independent of the explicit admission of expert uncertainty were also insignificant except for judged risk, which rose or fell slightly depending upon the measure of judged risk used. Overall, both qualitative expressions of uncertainty and quantitative probabilities had limited effects on public reaction. These results imply that both theoretical arguments for positive effects, and practitioners' potential concerns for negative effects, of uncertainty expression may have been overblown."
According to the news editors, the research concluded: "There may be good reasons to still acknowledge experts' uncertainties, but those merit separate justification and their own empirical tests."
For more information on this research see: Effects of Acknowledging Uncertainty about Earthquake Risk Estimates on San Francisco Bay Area Residents' Beliefs, Attitudes, and Intentions. Risk Analysis, 2017;():. (Wiley-Blackwell - www.wiley.com/; Risk Analysis - onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924)
The news editors report that additional information may be obtained by contacting K. Nakayachi, Faculty of Psychology,
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