Previewing the 2018 Social Security and Medicare Trustees’ Reports
The
The trustees last year estimated that
Fluctuations from year to year in the trustees' long-term estimates are normal. A variety of demographic factors (including fertility, mortality, and immigration) and economic variables (including wage growth, inflation, and interest rates) affect
Revisions of a year or two, in either direction, therefore are neither a reason for alarm nor for celebration. In fact, the trustees caution that their projections are uncertain. For example, last year they estimated a 95 percent chance that
A 2015 budget agreement extended the solvency of the SSDI trust fund until 2028, according to last year's trustees report, by temporarily allocating a larger share of the payroll tax to it as opposed to OASI. At the same time, the number of SSDI applicants and beneficiaries has declined for several years, as demographic and economic pressures on the program have eased. Although analysts anticipated this development, the number of disabled worker beneficiaries declined even more in 2017 than the trustees projected last year. As a result, this year's
The new Medicare trustees report will reflect the end of the
You can find our takes on last year's trustees' reports and more
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