For now, it's advantage Joe Biden in Wisconsin.
The presumptive Democratic nominee leads President Donald Trump, 49% to 44%, among likely voters in the fall, according to Tuesday's Marquette University Law School Poll.
Among registered voters, Biden has a 6-point lead, poll director Charles Franklin said.
"Certainly, anybody who takes this race for granted is asking to have an unpleasant surprise," Franklin said.
At this same point in the 2016 race in Wisconsin, the Marquette poll showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton with a post-convention bounce and leading Trump by 10 percentage points among registered voters and 15 points among likely voters. Trump narrowly won the state in the general election and claimed the White House.
This year's conventions are running back to back, beginning with the Democrats next week with a virtual event anchored in Milwaukee. Republicans meet the week of Aug. 24.
It's unclear what sort of polling bounce there will be for either candidate, since the conventions have been altered considerably by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Among registered voters, Trump was viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 55%, while Biden was viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 48%.
Just 44% approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, compared with 54% disapproval, his lowest numbers in the poll since January 2019.
Only 40% approve of the president's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, while 51% approve of his handling of the economy.
The regional breakdown of the state is following historic patterns, with Biden holding leads in the city of Milwaukee and the Madison media market, and Trump leading in the Milwaukee area outside the city.
The race is tight in the Green Bay area while Trump leads in the north and western part of the state.
The poll found high levels of engagement among Democrats and Republicans but a lower level of engagement among independents.
Around 87% of Democrats and Republicans say they are certain to vote, compared with just 60% of independents.
Sixty-five percent of Democrats and 64% of Republicans are enthusiastic to vote, but only 37% of independents say they are enthusiastic.
Democrats (72%) and Republicans (71%) are following what's going on in politics, while there is a steep drop off among independents (45%).
In Wisconsin, Franklin said, "independents tend not to tune into the race until pretty late. And so I would watch the independents throughout the fall to see if their intention to vote starts to move up as we get past Labor Day and even into October."
Protest approval down
Approval has ticked down for the mass protests that have taken place since the death of George Floyd, with 48% approving and 48% disapproving. In June, 61% approved of the protests and 36% disapproved.
The Black Lives Matter movement had a 49% favorable view against a 37% unfavorable view. Those numbers have moved significantly since June, when 58% had a favorable view of the Blacks Lives Matter movement vs. a 27% unfavorable view.
There is strong support for police, who are viewed favorably by 76% and unfavorably by 13%. Just 17% favor defunding the police, while 78% oppose the effort.
The survey of 801 registered voters was conducted Aug. 4-9. The full sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9%, while a sample of 675 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2%.