Large, Diverse Dem Field A Challenge To Primary Voters
May 26-- May 26--Joe Kunkel, a student and teacher of American politics, has watched a lot of history unfold. But he's never seen anything quite like the last presidential election and the run-up to the 2020 election.
He's befuddled by the unwieldy slate of 23 Democratic presidential candidates and sees many of those candidates using Donald Trump's own tactics in their quest to secure a dedicated base of voters -- a tactic that may serve them well in the primary, but leave them outside the comfort zone of most Democrat-leaning voters.
"Some of the Democrats are just trying to appeal to the base and mobilize them. They're using the Trump playbook," said Kunkel, professor emeritus of the Minnesota State University department of government. He's long been active in the Democratic Party.
While those candidates taking the furthest left route may have a rabid base of supporters, they will be hard pressed to shape some of their issues into a winning general election campaign.
"I think the Democrats taking the real hard positions are doing the same as Trump did just appealing to his base. He's not trying to expand his base, just appeal to it. You have (Democratic) candidates trying to explain why socialism isn't a bad thing. If you have to be out there trying to explain socialism, you're losing. This is America. We've tried that before."
Kunkel thinks whoever becomes the Democrats' nominee will work to peel away about 3 percent or so of the voters who cast ballots for Trump in 2016.
"They're not expecting to get big numbers of Trump voters. Those who are Trump believers are in this Fox News echo chamber. Will southern Minnesota farmers abandon Trump because they're going out of business? Some may, but a lot probably won't."
Thinning the crowd
"Are they going to put 20-some candidates on a stage for a debate? We have everybody and their brother running. Now you have the senator from Colorado jumping in -- you have two from the same state now," Kunkel said.
"It's ridiculous. There's no pre-screening process, everyone is just jumping in."
He wonders, for example, how South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has caught fire with many voters.
"You see the mayor of South Bend jump ahead -- that seems fluky. Why not the mayor of Rochester, Minnesota -- it's a bigger city. It seems there should be a higher level of experience for the top job."
But Kunkel expects the crowded field to dwindle relatively soon.
"It seems like pretty quickly it will shake down to maybe six candidates. After the straw poll before the Iowa caucuses, some will fade."
Attention getters
With topics such as "Medicare for All" and "Green New Deal," some of the candidates are garnering attention, with supporters saying a bold change needs to be made in the country and detractors labeling them socialists.
"Bernie Sanders has generated a lot of support and he's pulled the conversation definitely to the left. There are a number of activists, particularly younger ones, who are drawn to pure extreme policy," Kunkel said.
"You have more in a center-left lane, like (Joe) Biden, (Amy) Klobuchar and some others, who are not embracing the magic words of Medicare for All or the Green New Deal, whatever those things mean to people," he said.
"Centrists realize that telling people that have private (health) insurance plans that they have to get on a government plan just isn't going to go anywhere."
Kunkel said despite high-profile discussions about topics such as Medicare for All from Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and some other candidates, all the candidates are fairly close together on many of the party's core issues.
"There's not that much different among a lot of them on many issues. There's a lot of these issues that get magnified into major differences when on a lot of issues there isn't a lot of difference."
All have a high priority on access to health care, for example. Helping people with college debt, global warming and environmental issues are also issues all the candidates agree are important, although some have more radical proposals for addressing them.
"I don't see any social issues splitting the candidates."
Kunkel thinks Minnesota Sen. Klobuchar is high in the second tier of candidates. "She gets credibility and respect in the coverage she does get."
He said winnowing down the slate of candidates is especially difficult for Democrats because of the diversity of the party.
"Democrats are large and diverse but staying united has always been a problem for them.
"The GOP has always been much more homogeneous -- mostly white, male. You don't have the diversity, so it's not so hard to maintain unity."
Rising to the top
Biden, Kunkel thinks, brings instant clout. "Unless Biden really under-performs early on, you figure he and Sanders will be major players for a while. Biden comes across as smart and authentic. Sanders still has a strong core of true believers, maybe not as many as last time."
Kunkel said as the primaries near, voters may look more toward a compromise candidate.
He thinks California Sen. Kamala Harris may rise to be that candidate.
"She's the one I put my money on. I think she has a strong presence, a Senate base and experience. She comes across really strong. She hasn't pitched too far left yet."
As a black woman, Harris will do well in many parts of the country during primary and caucus season, Kunkel suspects, particularly in the South and particularly with black women voters.
"I think she'll be strong on Super Tuesday. That vote may hurt a lot of others like Klobuchar. Klobuchar is concentrating on the Midwest. She needs Iowa and New Hampshire, but the South looks like a problem for her," Kunkel said.
"A lot of voters are going to be looking at who can beat Trump. Not that they know who can win, but it gives more attention to personal style and background and things like that," Kunkel said.
"Trump's going to be a lot tougher this time. He's going to have a tremendous amount of money.
"But people may just get too fed up with the chaos."
Follow Tim Krohn on Twitter @TimKrohn
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