Insurance Information Institute/Milliman Report Projects Insurer Growth, Profits in 2021
A pandemic, civil unrest, and weather-related catastrophes impacted the
Few predict a repeat of the events of 2020, yet new projections from the
Despite myriad challenges,
"We think the year ended surprisingly well, given the difficult circumstances the industry found itself in," said
The year-end 2020 projections, along with those for this year and next, were unveiled during an exclusive,
The webinar featured insights from a bevy of experts on what to expect in 2021, including Triple-I Non-Resident Scholar
P/C insurance industry premium growth will rebound in 2021, the
"Economists expect growth to improve this year and next, which will fuel growth in exposures in most lines, " said
Kurtz noted, however, that recent signs of slowdown are "concerning - retail sales fell in December, adjusted for the season and new jobless claims remain stubbornly high. So that may delay growth, as might the spread of so-called variant coronaviruses, which the CDC is expecting will dominate the cases in the spring."
"Obviously, there is a tremendous amount that can change between now and when hurricane season starts on
On the commercial side, Sullivan noted that the trends for commercial auto aren't as powerful as personal lines. "Things have gotten better in terms of losses, but not that much better; certainly, nothing like personal auto," Sullivan said.
Eddinger gave an early look at 2020 results for workers compensation insurance. "The pandemic has landed the
Eddinger noted that as the virus began to spread in 2020, so did the concern that COVID claims could overwhelm the system. "Fortunately, that has turned out not to be the case. At the same time, there has been a drop in non-COVID claims, due in part to more remote work and less work-related driving. So far, incurred losses have decreased about 8 percent, in line with the drop in total premium. As a result, the estimated calendar year combined ratio for 2020 is almost unchanged from 2019 at 86. This would be the seventh straight year of underwriting profit for workers compensation."
The industry is financially strong but continues to face uncertainty, Eddinger warned. "The vaccine roll out has begun, but new cases of the virus in the
The
Leonard concluded: "Prudent asset management and sound underwriting practices ensured the continued financial stability of the industry even as we faced a uniquely challenging year, delivering on our contribution to systemic financial stability and commitment to policyholders."
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