Hurricane forecast updated after conditions change in the Atlantic. Here’s what experts expect.
The
The
In Thursday's update,
Storms don't get a name until they have wind speeds of 39 mph or more, according to
Atmospheric conditions "are conspiring to produce a less active
But scientists and
"There are still more storms to come -- the hurricane season is far from being over. We urge continued preparedness and vigilance,"
Previously, scientists predicted an above-normal season for
But
The likelihood of an above-normal season dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent since May,
The 2018 season is expected to produce as many as 13 named storms, of which 4-7 are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or more) and include anywhere from no major hurricanes to 2.
A major hurricane has winds of 111 mph or more,
The
An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, about 6 of which become hurricanes and three of those become classified as major hurricanes, according to
"Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline,"
One of the factors
Four months ago, the temperatures of the surface of the ocean looked similar to those observed in 2017, when there were 18 tropical depressions, 17 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes, six of which were major storms -- Category 3 or higher. Forecasters at that time expected a busy hurricane season because of warmer waters in the western
But now, the ocean's temperatures are cooler than earlier this year, which, when combined with "stronger wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop," is expected to further suppress hurricanes,
"Today's updated outlook is a reminder that we are entering the height of hurricane season and everyone needs to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge," FEMA Administrator
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