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Introduction
Good afternoon Chairman
Through my academic and work experiences I have gained a strong understanding of how the capital markets function, the role of currency, how businesses operate and how unaddressed risks can result in financial harm. For the last 18 months, I have closely studied, researched, and more recently written on Bitcoin, its structure and its highly-risky nature.
I appreciate the opportunity to testify today and I view this committee room as an extension of the
Most Recent Events
One month or even one week in the Bitcoin world can be equivalent to a decade in other markets. The price risk associated with Bitcoin is extreme and unlike any other volatile commodity. Despite the dramatic rise in 2013, prices have not been a one-way space rocket to the moon. Since
On
U.S. Small Business - Market Innovation
Small businesses fuel growth. Decisions by owners have broad impact. Presently, U.S. small business accounts for over half of private sector gross domestic product and employment. Since the 1970s, small businesses provide 55 percent of all jobs and 66 percent of all net new jobs. Businesses that are willing to adopt and utilize new technology, such as virtual currencies, may gain a distinct competitive advantage (e.g., cost savings, increased sales) over their competitors. However, blindly adopting technology without understanding the full risk implications can be hazardous to a company's financial health. Bitcoin is an example of new technology that has clear promise, but also poses a multitude of risks for both businesses and consumers.
In my testimony today I will not focus on the promise of virtual currencies as I will leave that to the other hearing witnesses. Instead my focus will be on the significant and currently unaddressed risks associated with Bitcoin. Sound business and regulatory decisions can only be made when these identified risks and promised benefits are examined, and weighed against each other in the light of day.
Once the facts are fully laid out, my hope is to leave this Committee with one simple question to ponder: what net benefits, if any, does Bitcoin actually provide to legitimate U.S. small businesses?
How Risky is Bitcoin to Small Businesses?
This question is best summarized by looking at the disclosure statement provided by Coinbase, a
The 10 Major Risks for U.S. Small Businesses
In determining whether to accept Bitcoin when selling goods and services or for meeting payroll or paying vendors, small business owners need to first assess these 10 major risks. If this panoply of risk is not fully understood or controlled, it has the potential of exposing a business to greater earnings uncertainty, losses and fraud.
These 10 major risks are discussed below.
1. Bitcoin Is Not Legal Tender
Small businesses need to clearly understand that Bitcoin is not legal tender. It is not created or supported by a sovereign --- it is nationless. Unlike the U.S. dollar, there are no laws that require businesses or individuals to accept Bitcoin to settle private or public debts. Bitcoin is also not backed by taxing power, ability to assemble an army, assets or other natural resources customarily owned or controlled by nation states. In contrast to legal tender, the use of Bitcoin is limited to those willing to accept it. Presently the group of Bitcoin users is minuscule relative to the U.S. population (1 million out of 317 million). Globally, these numbers are even smaller. If businesses or individuals suddenly decide not to accept it, Bitcoin will become worthless.
2. Extreme
Since inception, Bitcoin has experienced extreme annual price volatility topping 140 percent. n6 Bitcoin is 7 times more risky than gold and 8 times more risky than the S&P 500. Compared to currencies it is 7 times more risky than the unstable Argentinian Peso and 15 times more risky than the U.S. dollar. As a result, it could be argued that small businesses that blindly accept Bitcoin are not actually in commerce but are in the high-risk speculative trading business. In contrast to small businesses, a
In a single day, it is not uncommon for Bitcoin prices to move by 10 percent. At current price levels, Bitcoin can drop by
3. Extreme Price Movements Can Quickly Erase Company Profit Margins
The profit margins of U.S. small businesses are dependent on numerous factors including the nature of the industry, competition, location, number of employees, technology employed, cost of capital and level of management skill and experience. Although net profit margins can be 10 percent or less, more profitable companies earn margins in the 15 to 20 percent range. Examples of higher profit margin professions include CPAs, chiropractors, and dentists, lawyers, portfolio managers and optometrists. n8
Given that the daily price movement of Bitcoin can be as high as 10 percent, a small business owner who accepts this form of payment could see profit margins reduced or completely erased in a matter of days.
4. Bitcoin is an Asset Bubble in the Process of Deflating
Small business owners need to be cognizant of the fact that Bitcoin prices were only
All asset bubbles are similar in that they have three phases: growth, maturity and pop. However, not all asset bubbles see prices collapse during the final phase; sometimes prices deflate over an extended period allowing investors to experience lower losses and softer landings. Bitcoin entered the growth stage in 2011, the maturity stage in 2013 and now is in the pop stage. Since
In
5. Growing Concentration and Bankruptcy Risk to Financial Middlemen
Increasingly, small businesses, in an effort to avoid the extreme price risk of Bitcoin, are using the risk-mitigation services of Coinbase and BitPay. However, in relying on these startups, there is a growing exposure to concentration and bankruptcy risk.
Both Coinbase and BitPay, as financial middlemen, accept price risk for a fee and allow businesses to receive their most preferred currency. Merchants are given a fixed Bitcoin conversion rate linked to a window of time. For example, BitPay provides a locked price quote for only 15 minutes. The fee for basic entry level service is 1 percent of transaction value. n10 Customers pay in Bitcoin but merchants can elect to receive U.S. dollars. Extreme daily price swings have created a niche for Coinbase and BitPay but also have created a potentially dangerous level of industry concentration risk. It is important to note that Coinbase and BitPay do not eliminate overall Bitcoin price risk but simply warehouse this risk on their books. This is of particular concern given that these two fledgling firms are lightly regulated, thinly capitalized, and not required to operate with minimum capital requirements. Without these important safeguards, it is uncertain what this price mitigation guarantee is really worth? Adding to this concentration risk, no derivatives market exists to off-load this significant risk.
As the number of small business customers increases, the amount of Bitcoin price-risk retained by these financial middlemen will also grow. For Coinbase or BitPay, a single-day price drop of 20 percent or a prolonged price decline on a large enough Bitcoin position could be financially devastating. n11
Coinbase also has multiple business lines that present an inherent conflict of interest. In offering price-risk mitigation and Bitcoin-for-sale services, Coinbase has an economic incentive to sell Bitcoin at the highest market price while customers have an economic incentive to buy Bitcoin at the lowest market price. Without strong regulatory oversight it is unclear how Coinbase effectively balances this duel and conflicted loyalty.
If these financial middlemen were to declare bankruptcy, no longer able to honor their obligations, and accounts receivable owed to merchants were not paid, such a scenario could be extremely costly.
6. Bitcoin Exchange Bankruptcy Risk
Business owners can also sell coins and open e-wallets through Bitcoin exchanges. Since Mt Gox trading was halted on
7. Bitcoin Use Can Trigger Significant Tax Risk
Unlike legal tender, Bitcoin has been designated for tax purposes as property. This distinction is significant. Unlike legal tender, when accepting Bitcoin, business owners can be subject to additional taxes associated with the gains ---the difference in value on date received versus value on date sold.
On
Small business owners are now confronted with several other tax risks. If they decide to accept and retain Bitcoin, they will need to keep records of the market price on the day received and sold. Any increase in value from that date forward would be subject to income tax. If a merchant decided to pay its employees in Bitcoin, the firm also needs to withhold the required employment tax in U.S. dollars. Companies that pay employees in Bitcoin are also subjecting staff to increased tax risk should coins appreciate in value or if prices drop. Such a policy, given Bitcoin's extreme daily price volatility, would unfairly penalize employees.
8. Transaction Fraud Risk - Double Spending
Under Bitcoin protocol all new transactions are validated through the blockchain, a public ledger that is independently verified every 10 minutes. Validation is done to avoid a situation where a customer is able to fraudulently double-spend this e-coin. However, this 10 minute window poses potential risk should two businesses be paid with the same Bitcoin. If a double-spending incident occurred during this time gap, the last merchant to report the transaction would have little recourse to collect on this payment. n14 That merchant would then lose the value of the product or services sold. If the customer had used a credit card and not Bitcoin to commit the fraud, the business would have had recourse through the credit card company. One way merchants can attempt to mitigate this risk is by waiting until a full validation is completed before permitting customers to receive goods or services.
9. Bitcoin Slow Transaction Speed Increases Credit Risk
Credit cards such as Visa and
On the existing Bitcoin network, only 7 transactions per second can be processed compared to 2,000 transactions on the credit card network. n15 If the number of Bitcoin transactions on the existing network continues to grow, and if the network is not accordingly scaled up, small businesses accepting Bitcoin could see transaction time lengthened and payment verification slowed. Although inconvenient for customers, to mitigate this risk, merchants may need to have customers wait until a transaction can be completely verified.
BitPay, a virtual currency payment facilitator provides small businesses with three speed setting to help manage the Bitcoin payment confirmation process. At the fastest speed, merchants assume total credit risk if they deliver the product in advance of receiving a completely verified payment confirmation. For small transactions like candy, coffee and newspapers this concern may be minimal. For larger transactions, the concern for credit risk may take precedence over customer inconvenience. This is especially true before retail customers are allowed to take possession of merchandise or a product is shipped from an internet-based enterprise.
10. Risk of
Small business owners that decide to accept Bitcoin have to create an e-wallet, and determine whether to store it on one's own personal computer hard drive or relying on a third-party vendor such as Blockchain or Coinbase. Third-party vendors that create and hold e-wallets perform a deposit-type function. However, unlike banks, these vendors lack regulatory oversight, minimum capital standards and don't provide consumer protection against loss or theft. Once created, e-wallets generate a public and private key. Small businesses need to have strong controls in place around the storage of e-wallets and of the private key. n16 This is particularly important given that Bitcoin is an anonymous currency that is irreversible once transferred. n17 Bitcoin features make it an ideal target for cyber criminals. If an e-wallet is hacked and coins stolen or transferred by mistake, they are lost forever. If a computer is infected with a virus, it could wipe out the hard drive and the stored value of all e-coins.
Relying on third-party vendors also has it drawbacks, as it requires confidence that adequate controls are in place to minimize the likelihood of cyber-attacks or internal employee fraud. It is not uncommon for e-wallet service providers to go out of business. This was evidenced by the dramatic and costly Mt Gox bankruptcy in
Background
a) Forms of Payment
Forms of payment in commerce have evolved over many centuries including barter, shells, crude metal coins, precious metal coins, leather money, paper money, wampum, gold, gold-backed dollars, charge plates, checks, wires, credit cards, debit cards and prepaid cards. Each manifestation has occurred in response to consumer demand for more convenient ways to conduct commerce. In the process, businesses have expanded and financially benefited.
Virtual currencies, Bitcoin in particular, are being presented as the newest attempt at payment innovation. Bitcoin promoters claim it is a safer, faster and cheaper form of payment than existing forms including credit cards. These claims have yet to be fully proven.
b) Facilitating Commerce
It is widely known that businesses can increase sales by expanding the availability of customer payment options. Credit cards remain the primary form of payment used by consumers when entering brick and mortar businesses or when shopping online. Unlike cash or debit cards, credit cards facilitate greater purchasing by delivering a fast, short-term loan to consumers. In a cash only economy, businesses would not sell as many products or services, and profits would fall. Credit cards also increase impulse buying. To encourage even greater purchasing, some credit card companies establish reward programs, enhance product warranties and provide free loss/damage insurance on products purchased. In addition to credit cards, PayPal makes it convenient for customers by providing the option of quickly transferring money from either personal bank accounts or credit cards. n18 PayPal has made significant inroads into e-commerce, now representing 18 percent of the market or
The cost of processing plastic is higher and small businesses attempt to manage higher fees especially on smaller purchased items by imposing credit card minimums or by establishing a cash or credit card price. The average cost of credit card transactions to merchants ranges from 2 to 3 percent. In the last year, small businesses have also gained greater relief from credit card fees. Since
Small businesses have also received meaningful fee relief when accepting debit cards. Since the Dodd Frank Act and with the adoption of the Durbin Amendment, per-swipe fees have dropped by about 50 percent to
c) Credit Cards Fees Come With Merchant Benefits
Credit cards have fees but with these fees come services and benefits to both merchants and customers. Consumers using credit cards are more likely to spend than those who only have cash. Business owners at point-of-sale receive instantaneous assurance that a card is valid and its owner has sufficient funds available to make a purchase. Credit card companies also work with merchants to reduce the chance of fraudulent purchases. Consumer sales are increased through the use of loyalty program, enhanced guarantees and damage insurance. As a financial middleman, credit card companies also handle dispute resolution, gathering facts from merchants and customers. The chargeback protection (disputed purchases) also increases the likelihood of credit card use and thus a greater number of purchases.
d) Evolving Payment Landscape - Business Transactions
Currently, two-thirds of all point-of-sales transactions in the U.S. are completed either with credit, debit or gift cards. A little over twenty-five percent of sales are completed with cash and this rate is projected to decline to only 23 percent by 2017. n19 Technology continues to make it easier for merchants to accept credit card transactions as older swipe machines and dedicated phone lines continue to disappear. Innovative firms such as Square, WePay and PayPal are making it more convenient to accept plastic or to make bank account direct transfers.
There is also significant growth in the use of prepaid cards. In 2013,
Most Small Businesses Don't Accept Credit Cards
Internet commerce continues to grow rapidly where the preferred payment methods are either credit card or the use of PayPal-type services. In 2013, U.S. E-commerce sales increased by 17.22 percent to
Cash-only businesses also increase the chance for tax under-reporting. The
Why Small Businesses Might Utilize Bitcoin?
There are two major reasons why U.S. small businesses might either accept Bitcoin as payment and/or use it for paying employees, and vendors:
1. Illegitimate Purposes -
2. Legitimate Purposes
a. Gain Marketing Exposure - Bitcoin has gained increased media attention. As a result, more small businesses view accepting Bitcoin as a way to gain market exposure. Posting a sign on a door front, on a website or gaining local media coverage increases free advertising and brand awareness. For example, Grass Hill Alpacas, a
b. Reduce Transaction Costs and Gain New Customers - Bitcoin represents a new possibly less expensive, private payment form to sell goods and services and possibly expanding sales by reaching new customers.
How do Small Businesses Obtain Bitcoin?
There are four legitimate ways businesses can obtain Bitcoin:
1. Buying through an exchange (BTCe) or money transmitter (e.g., Coinbase)
2. Accepting as a form of payment for goods and services
3. Receiving as a gift
4. Mining coins
To obtain Bitcoin, assuming there is no interest in mining coins, businesses first have to setup e-wallets, either through third-party vendors (e.g., Blockchain) or by storing them on the hard drive of a personal computer, which then allows for the receiving and sending of coins.
Additional Background
There are over 190 virtual currencies traded in the marketplace totaling
In 2009, a programmer by the pseudonym Satoushi Nakamoto n22 supposedly designed Bitcoin, a computer generated "virtual currency" produced by solving progressively complex mathematical equations. n23 The code-protocol for Bitcoin is open source, allowing it to be easily viewed, commented on and if a majority of programmers agree, changes are adopted. In this regard, Bitcoin is very transparent. n24 Bitcoin, the pseudo currency and Bitcoin, the low-cost payment system, are dependent on each other and are inseparable. Bitcoin is the locomotive while the payment system is the track that allows it to move back and forth. The Bitcoin infrastructure is decentralized and based on a peer-to-peer structure. Individuals in a multitude of locations, using powerful computers to solve pre-determined equations, authenticate e-coins and help keep a general ledger of ongoing transactions. A continuous blockchain is used and maintained to record Bitcoin ownership. New transactions are authenticated every ten minutes. Unlike in credit card transactions, the peer-to-peer network was designed to eliminate the need for the financial middleman or the associated fees. These individuals verify transactions and provide the backbone control to ensure that e-coins are authentic and are not double-spent. As a reward for their efforts, they earn blocks of e-coins. This process is referred to as mining and those that do it are called miners. Interestingly, using such terminology also gives the false impression that something of tangible value is being created such as gold being mined out of the ground. Some enthusiasts have claimed that Bitcoin is gold for geeks. Initially, the entry-level barrier to become a miner was low. Overtime, this barrier has risen and those who are already mining have a competitive advantage and greater market power.
At first miners were rewarded with 50 coins per block. Initially Bitcoin prices were in pennies. More recently, a block is equal to 25 coins. The block/coin ratio will continue to halve as time goes on. It takes approximately 10 minutes to mine a block and approximately 4,000 new e-coins are generated globally per day. Currently over 12.3 million Bitcoins have been minted and by year 2140, the 21 million limit will be reached. A preset quantity limitation creates scarcity which puts upward pressure on price. This is especially true as long as new investors can be recruited to buy newly minted e-coins. Although commodity scarcity is dictated by predetermined rules, it is unclear what mechanism or controls are in place to guarantee that rules will be followed and that incentives to cheat the system will be eliminated.
Theoretically, the Bitcoin mining and authenticity process is decentralized, keeping collusion between miners to a minimum. n25 As new e-coins are minted they are added to the blockchain and when trades occur, existing e-coins are authenticated against this blockchain. As more Bitcoins are mined, the blockchain grows longer in complexity and the verification time increases. In
n1
n2 Market price of
n3 On
n4
n6 In 2009, annual volatility was approximately 160 percent. Using price data from 2010 forward from Mt Gox, Bitstamp and BTCe, annual volatility through 2014 was approximately 140 percent.
n7 Prices plunged on the BTCe to
n8 Nelson, Brett, The Most Profitable Small Businesses, Forbes,
n9 The price dropped once the bubble burst was 99 percent.
n10 BitPay has a four tier customer structure with fees ranging as low as 1 percent of transaction value to monthly fees of up to
n11 Since
n12 Practice of a self-interested firm executing trades in its own account after having advanced market information, sometimes trading at the detriment of the customer positions.
n13 Moore, Tyler, Christin, Nicolas, Beware the Middleman: Empirical Analysis of Bitcoin-Exchange Risk, 2013
n14 Although the Bitcoin community has indicated that double-spending events are rare, and controls against it are strong, merchants still need to be prepared should such fraud be committed.
n15 BItcoin advocates claim that in the future the Bitcoin payment network will be much quicker than the existing credit card network. However in 2014, transaction processing time for Bitcoin remains much slower as measured in time to confirmation.
n16 Some businesses to gain maximum control have taken paper copies of private keys and placed them in locked boxes. E-wallets can also be taken off line. This control technique is called cold storage.
n17 These secrecy features also raise the question of what business need these benefits unless they have something they want to hide.
n18 The predecessor company to PayPal was founded in
n19 Javelin Strategy & Research 2012
n20 McClue, TJ., Why Don't More Small Businesses Accept Credit Cards, Forbes,
n21
n22 In March, Newsweek presented facts in an attempt to prove the founder is
n23 Bitcoin has not been recognized by any of the G20 countries as meeting the definition of currency as it lacks price stability and does not provide a stable store of value. As a result it is a speculative virtual commodity with no tangible value.
n24 The Bitcoin community has argued that this open source unregulated peer-to-peer approach is a strong control as it allows a large community of computer scientists, software engineers and cryptologists to watch over the system and insure its integrity.
n25 However, in practice, as prices have skyrocketed, there has been a greater economic incentive for miners to band together in pursuit of increased profits. As a result, this remains a clear weakness in the Bitcoin infrastructure.
Read this original document at: http://smbiz.house.gov/UploadedFiles/4-2-2014_Williams_Final_Testimony.pdf
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