Experts: Cape Cod should prepare for the worst hurricanes
The 15-foot ceiling of her outsized garage soared overhead, tall enough to accommodate the cab of a tractor-trailer. The garage occupies the entire first floor, vaulting her home high above surrounding residences. All the utilities -- the heating system, water heater, major appliances -- are in the living quarters, ostensibly out of reach of storm-driven seas.
"I'm not worried," Laureano said.
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During a hurricane, wind damage from downed trees, and power outages, get a lot of attention, mainly because there are more people living inland than in waterfront properties exposed to the ocean's fury. But in the sea level neighborhoods that line the
"The one thing that keeps me up at night is a Category 3 landfall on
No one currently alive has seen that nightmare scenario play out, he said.
And it's unclear if anyone is ready for it.
Vulnerable landscape
The south-facing bays and inlets of the Cape and
The right side of a hurricane packs the highest winds, but the maximum winds are adjacent to the eye.
The upper reaches of
"This was probably the most intense hurricane in
Jarvinen is an expert on the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) computer model, developed by the
The potential exists for 20- to 24-foot surges from a Category 3 storm, Vallee said. Computer modeling for maximum storm tide -- the storm surge plus high tide -- shows the potential for between a 23- and 29-feet surge throughout
Although the Cape hasn't seen a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph since Hurricane Carol in 1954, it's just a matter of time, experts say, and the region is overdue.
Historic context
At a recent coastal resiliency conference, Donnelly presented a computer simulation covering the past 8,000 years, during which 17,354 hurricanes have passed within 60 miles of
A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, leading to more intense rainfall, and some believe more intense storms. While there is still some debate over whether we are currently seeing the influence of climate change in hurricanes,
"In 2005 we had the longest hurricane season on record with 27 tropical storms," he said. "At least one extended to January."
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"The climate itself, without human interference, is capable of producing storms like we haven't seen before, which worries me," Donnelly said. "We don't need some storm like you've never seen before. ... All we need is the 1938 hurricane or (Hurricane) Carol."
Most of the storm surge is generated by the high winds and the forward momentum of the storm piling up water like snow before a plow. A secondary contributor to the surge is a doming effect caused by intense low pressure in the eye of the hurricane that allows the water there to bulge upwards from 1 to 3 feet high.
In offshore waters, the energy of the storm can be absorbed in deeper water. But as the storm approaches shore, the ocean bottom directs that energy upward and shoreward. The surge typically hits a couple of hours in advance of the eye crossing the mainland.
Still, storm surge measurements only include the increased height of the water due to the effects of the hurricane. Added to that is the tide height and waves which don't tend to penetrate far inland, but pack destructive power.
The tide made a big difference during the
"It was kind of creeping up. But when it came to high tide, it just totally blew over the marsh quickly. Cars were lost, homes devastated. The only access for emergencies was military vehicles," said
"The (1938) hurricane the water rose 3 feet every 10 to 15 minutes. In the span of a half-hour the bay (
"Wow. I know our first floor would be gone,"
Mackiewicz and her husband own two homes on
The densely packed, cottagey neighborhoods along the
There are no McMansions. The homes and lots are small and the river wide, shallow and close. Residents are very aware of the threat of storm surge.
"You've got to be aware, living here," Lafratta said. "We know it is low-lying."
Still most, including his family, don't carry flood insurance because it's too expensive.
"It's a cottage. It's been here since the '40s," he said, shrugging. "If it happens, it happens."
When Hurricane Bob threatened them with a 7- to 9-foot surge, firefighters and police officers drove through the neighborhood with loudspeakers urging evacuation. Most obeyed because they knew the danger, Lafratta said.
"We got out of here," he said. "This becomes an island."
"You'd be dumb not to (evacuate)," said Mackiewicz, who lives year-round in a home fronting the river. "If you are from the area, you know you have to be watching the weather from September through October."
On a sunny, hot, humid day, with cumulus clouds towering overhead in a bright blue sky,
"It was a desert," Wilkins recalled of the scene she witnessed when people were allowed back into the neighborhood after Bob. "Boats, houses, furniture, appliances were floating."
Her family home was farther inland and didn't get flooded, she said. That gave her enough confidence that she might stay through another hurricane, "just to weather it."
"I bought it with cash because of the federal (flood) insurance cost (if the house was mortgaged)," he said.
One important criteria was that it hadn't been touched by Bob; he felt that was the worst-case scenario, Giurleo said.
Vallee said he worries a whole generation has not experienced a big storm and is not prepared.
"Ask people when was the last time you evacuated?" he said. "My guess is it's probably that many have not had to evacuate."
It could be worse
"I am extremely concerned. I told them (
"Eighty-five, '91, a few storms over the past few years, the water has not come over the sea wall any of those times," said Meier, who is also president of the
In the hours before Bob, Gaulin didn't evacuate, but secured patio furniture and prepared the house as best he could. He was thankful his basement didn't leak much as the sea rose, filling his garage with 3 to 4 feet of water.
"A lot of people don't know where they are, (in terms of flooding) and what the risk is," said
They might have little time to find out. Once past
"
Thanks to big leaps in computing power in recent years, forecasting the track of a hurricane has improved significantly.
"The accuracy of where the storm will be in five days is similar to what we had 10 years ago for a three-day forecast," Ginis said.
That's a gain of two days lead time to start getting ready.
The launch of a new geostationary weather satellite this spring will also help improve the accuracy of forecasting, Vallee said.
But Ginis said progress has been slow on forecasting storm intensification, the leap from tropical storm to hurricane or from one category to the next.
"Intensity is more challenging ... because intensity is very much controlled by the internal physics of the hurricane itself," Ginis said.
The amount of energy available to the hurricane, the amount that will be lost to friction or up into the clouds, and other factors are difficult for even the most powerful computers to simulate.
Getting the word out
Noyes said he has access to the latest estimates on wind speed and surge potential, and a network of emergency personnel from local, county, state and federal agencies meeting in advance of, and during, storms to share knowledge and coordinate efforts. He can use reverse 911 to alert residents and has the capability to broadcast alerts to cellphones in an affected area. Social media also is being used by more towns.
"Our emergency personnel are prepared to understand the threat. The challenge is in getting people to respond quickly," Vallee said.
On a ferry to
But it's misleading, experts say, noting that the maximum potential storm surge for specific locations is affected by changes in storm intensity, the storm's forward speed, the radius of the maximum winds around the eye -- Bob's maximum winds were tightly grouped within a 25-mile radius, while the devastating 1938 hurricane had a 50-mile radius -- and the direction of its approach.
"The threat from storm surge has nothing to do with those (Saffir-Simpson) categories," Ginis said. "You can get a storm surge of a higher magnitude from a Category 1 if it is large and moving fast. It could be the same as a Cat 4 that is small and moving slowly."
After 117 people died in Hurricane Sandy, the
"
Drowning was the major cause of death in Sandy. Nearly half those drowning deaths occurred inside flooded homes, according to a 2013 morbidity and mortality report by the
The decision to stay, Ginis said, was influenced by the fact that Sandy was downgraded to a tropical storm before it made landfall.
"My biggest concern is not that we won't be able to tell them but that we are a bunch of damn Yankees. We are stubborn and lack experience. We like to see the whites of their eyes, the foam on the seas," Vallee said. "But when dealing with a
Long-term planning at the municipal level to mitigate storm surge impacts continues, but is complicated by the amount of infrastructure and development that has occurred in vulnerable areas in the nearly 28 years since Bob.
"It's a really difficult thing to plan for a storm of that size given all the development along the Cape," said
Perry is coordinating the effort by
More people, more problems
When Category 3 storms struck -- the New England Hurricane of 1938 and Edna and Carol in 1954 -- the population of
In
The town's hazard mitigation plan lists six new major developments in the past couple of years. Two of the six, an assisted living facility that opened in 2015 and a 100-room hotel, were built in special hazard flood areas but used fill to elevate them beyond base flood levels. The new police station is substantially less vulnerable to flooding than the old one on
"We certainly have areas that could experience a 20-foot surge," said Bourne Conservation Agent
Funded by the
"They are very reluctant to think about the really bad situations," Ginis said. "We showed them examples of realistic flooding."
What he's learned is to anticipate the unexpected. Ginis attended a number of meetings over the past year in which emergency managers from
"
His real-time hurricane simulation found that leaving the Providence hurricane barrier closed for a specific length of time, combined with rain-swollen rivers, flooded the city as if it had been subjected to storm surge.
One of the first surprising findings was the fire chief telling him that his emergency rescue vehicles couldn't run with more than 8 inches of water on the roads.
Vallee's advice is not to wait until you need to be rescued. Go online to find out whether you are in a flood or evacuation zone. Prepare now by thinking where you will go when you need to leave your home and leave early as flooding from rain and surge can occur 15 hours before the storm makes landfall.
"Treat the hurricane watch as a warning," Vallee said. "Our hurricanes are kind to us: in by breakfast, out by dinner, but the damage they do in that short span is terrifying."
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