ACE LTD – 10-K – Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
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The following is a discussion of our results of operations, financial condition, and liquidity and capital resources as of and for the year endedDecember 31, 2011 . This discussion should be read in conjunction with the Consolidated Financial Statements and related notes, under Item 8 of this Form 10-K. MD&A Index Page No. Forward-Looking Statements 37 Overview 39 Executive Summary 40 Critical Accounting Estimates
41
Consolidated Operating Results 60 PriorPeriod Development 63 Segment Operating Results 67 Net Investment Income 75 Net Realized and Unrealized Gains (Losses)
75
Other Income and Expense Items
77
Investments
77
Asbestos and Environmental (A&E) and Other Run-off Liabilities 83
Catastrophe Management
84
Natural Catastrophe Property Reinsurance Program
85
Political Risk, Trade Credit, and Structured Trade Credit 86Crop Insurance 87 Liquidity 88 Capital Resources 91 Contractual Obligations and Commitments 93 Credit Facilities 94 Ratings 95 Recent Accounting Pronouncements 96 Forward-Looking Statements The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for forward-looking statements. Any written or oral statements made by us or on our behalf may include forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could, should potential events occur, cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These risks, uncertainties, and other factors (which are described in more detail elsewhere herein and in other documents we file with theSEC ) include but are not limited to: •developments in global financial markets, including changes in interest rates, stock markets, and other financial markets, increased government involvement or intervention in the financial services industry, the cost and availability of financing, and foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations (which we refer to in this report as foreign exchange and foreign currency exchange), which could affect our statement of operations, investment portfolio, financial position, and financing plans;
• general economic and business conditions resulting from volatility in the stock and credit markets and the depth and duration of recession;
• losses arising out of natural or man-made catastrophes such as hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, floods, climate change (including effects on weather patterns, greenhouse gases, sea, land and air temperatures, sea levels, rain and snow), nuclear accidents or terrorism which could be affected by:
• the number of insureds and ceding companies affected;
• the amount and timing of losses actually incurred and reported by insureds;
• the impact of these losses on our reinsurers and the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverable actually received;
• the cost of building materials and labor to reconstruct properties or to perform environmental remediation following a catastrophic event; and
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• complex coverage and regulatory issues such as whether losses occurred from storm surge or flooding and related lawsuits;
• actions that rating agencies may take from time to time, such as financial strength or credit ratings downgrades or placing these ratings on credit watch negative or the equivalent;
• global political conditions, the occurrence of any terrorist attacks, including any nuclear, radiological, biological, or chemical events, or the outbreak and effects of war, and possible business disruption or economic contraction that may result from such events;
• the ability to collect reinsurance recoverable, credit developments of reinsurers, and any delays with respect thereto and changes in the cost, quality, or availability of reinsurance;
• actual loss experience from insured or reinsured events and the timing of claim payments;
• the uncertainties of the loss-reserving and claims-settlement processes, including the difficulties associated with assessing environmental damage and asbestos-related latent injuries, the impact of aggregate-policy-coverage limits, and the impact of bankruptcy protection sought by various asbestos producers and other related businesses and the timing of loss payments; • changes to our assessment as to whether it is more likely than not that we will be required to sell, or have the intent to sell, available for sale fixed maturities before their anticipated recovery;
• infection rates and severity of pandemics and their effects on our business operations and claims activity;
• judicial decisions and rulings, new theories of liability, legal tactics, and settlement terms;
• the effects of public company bankruptcies and/or accounting restatements, as well as disclosures by and investigations of public companies relating to possible accounting irregularities, and other corporate governance issues, including the effects of such events on:
• the capital markets;
• the markets for directors and officers (D&O) and errors and omissions (E&O) insurance; and
• claims and litigation arising out of such disclosures or practices by other companies;
• uncertainties relating to governmental, legislative and regulatory policies, developments, actions, investigations and treaties, which, among other things, could subject us to insurance regulation or taxation in additional jurisdictions or affect our current operations;
• the actual amount of new and renewal business, market acceptance of our products, and risks associated with the introduction of new products and services and entering new markets, including regulatory constraints on exit strategies;
• the competitive environment in which we operate, including trends in pricing or in policy terms and conditions, which may differ from our projections and changes in market conditions that could render our business strategies ineffective or obsolete; • acquisitions made by us performing differently than expected, our failure to realize anticipated expense-related efficiencies or growth from acquisitions, the impact of acquisitions on our pre-existing organization or announced acquisitions not closing;
• risks associated with being a Swiss corporation, including reduced flexibility with respect to certain aspects of capital management and the potential for additional regulatory burdens;
• the potential impact from government-mandated insurance coverage for acts of terrorism;
• the availability of borrowings and letters of credit under our credit facilities;
• the adequacy of collateral supporting funded high deductible programs;
• changes in the distribution or placement of risks due to increased consolidation of insurance and reinsurance brokers;
• material differences between actual and expected assessments for guaranty funds and mandatory pooling arrangements;
• the effects of investigations into market practices in the property and casualty (P&C) industry;
• changing rates of inflation and other economic conditions, for example, recession;
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• the amount of dividends received from subsidiaries;
• loss of the services of any of our executive officers without suitable replacements being recruited in a reasonable time frame;
• the ability of our technology resources to perform as anticipated; and
• management's response to these factors and actual events (including, but not limited to, those described above).
The words "believe," "anticipate," "estimate," "project," "should," "plan," "expect," "intend," "hope," "feel," "foresee," "will likely result," or "will continue," and variations thereof and similar expressions, identify forward-looking statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or review any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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Overview
ACE Limited is the Swiss-incorporated holding company of theACE Group of Companies . ACE opened its business office inBermuda in 1985 and continues to maintain operations inBermuda . ACE, which is headquartered inZurich, Switzerland , and its direct and indirect subsidiaries, are a global insurance and reinsurance organization, serving the needs of commercial and individual customers with total assets of$88 billion and shareholder's equity of$25 billion atDecember 31, 2011 . ACE is predominantly a global property and casualty insurance company with both a commercial and specialty product orientation. We offer commercial insurance, specialty products and A&H solutions to customers in more than 170 countries. We are also expanding our personal lines and international life insurance businesses. As we have grown, we have developed products and diversified our offerings to meet the needs of our customers.
We operate through the following business segments: Insurance -
The Insurance - North American segment includes retail divisionsACE USA (including ACE Canada),ACE Commercial Risk Services andACE Private Risk Services ; our wholesale and specialty divisions ACE Westchester, ACE Agriculture and ACE Bermuda; and various run-off operations, includingBrandywine Holdings Corporation (Brandywine). Our retail products range from commercial lines with service offerings such as risk management, loss control and engineering programs, and specialty commercial P&C and A&H to personal lines homeowners, automobiles, liability, valuable articles and marine coverages. Our wholesale and specialty products include excess and surplus property, professional liability, inland marine, specialty property, specialty casualty, political risk, captive programs and comprehensive multiple-peril crop and hail insurance products. The Insurance - Overseas General segment comprisesACE International , our retail business serving territories outside the U.S.,Bermuda , andCanada ; the international accident & health (A&H) and life business ofCombined Insurance ; and the wholesale insurance business ofACE Global Markets .ACE International has a presence in major developed markets and growing economies serving multinational clients and local customers. A significant amount of our global business is with local companies, offering traditional and specialty P&C products including D&O and professional liability, specialty personal lines, and energy products. Our international A&H and life business primarily focuses on personal accident and supplemental medical.ACE Global Markets offers specialty products including aviation, marine, financial lines, energy, and political risk. The Global Reinsurance segment represents our reinsurance operations, comprising ACE Tempest Re Bermuda,ACE Tempest Re USA ,ACE Tempest Re International , ACE Tempest Re Canada, and the reinsurance operation ofACE Global Markets . Global Reinsurance provides solutions for customers ranging from small commercial insureds to multinational ceding companies. Global Reinsurance offers products such as property and workers' compensation catastrophe, D&O, professional liability, specialty casualty and specialty property. The Life segment includes our international life operations (ACE Life), ACE Tempest Life Re (ACE Life Re), and the North American supplemental A&H and life business ofCombined Insurance . For more information on each of our segments refer to "Segment Information" under Item 1. Our product and geographic diversification differentiates us from the vast majority of our competitors and has been a source of stability during periods of industry volatility. Our long-term business strategy focuses on sustained growth in book value achieved through a combination of underwriting and investment income. By doing so, we provide value to our clients and shareholders through the utilization of our substantial capital base in the insurance and reinsurance markets. 39
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We are organized along a profit center structure by line of business and territory that does not necessarily correspond to corporate legal entities. Profit centers can access various legal entities, subject to licensing and other regulatory rules. Profit centers are expected to generate underwriting income and appropriate risk-adjusted returns. This corporate structure has facilitated the development of management talent by giving each profit center's senior management team the necessary autonomy within underwriting authorities to make operating decisions and create products and coverages needed by its target customer base. We are an underwriting organization and senior management is focused on delivering underwriting profit. We strive to achieve underwriting income by only writing policies which we believe adequately compensate us for the risk we accept. Our insurance and reinsurance operations generate gross revenues from two principal sources: premiums and investment income. Cash flow is generated from premiums collected and investment income received less paid losses and loss expenses, policy acquisition costs, and administrative expenses. Invested assets are substantially held in liquid, investment grade fixed income securities of relatively short duration. Claims payments in any short-term period are highly unpredictable due to the random nature of loss events and the timing of claims awards or settlements. The value of investments held to pay future claims is subject to market forces such as the level of interest rates, stock market volatility, and credit events such as corporate defaults. The actual cost of claims is also volatile based on loss trends, inflation rates, court awards, and catastrophes. We believe that our cash balance, our highly liquid investments, credit facilities, and reinsurance protection provide sufficient liquidity to meet unforeseen claim demands that might occur in the year ahead. Refer to "Liquidity" and "Capital Resources" for additional information.
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Executive Summary
The insurance industry experienced significant catastrophe losses in 2011, resulting in above average insured losses from natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. In addition, the industry was challenged with several government fiscal crises, slow economic growth in developed markets and challenging insurance market conditions. Our long-pursued strategy is to achieve product and geographic diversification on a global scale while maintaining underwriting discipline and trading market share for underwriting profit. This has given us greater balance between those product areas exposed to the P&C cycle and those that are not. With respect to the catastrophe events of 2011, our results compared with 2010, were adversely impacted by net after-tax losses, including reinstatement premiums, of$767 million and$342 million , respectively. Catastrophe losses included theJapan andNew Zealand earthquakes, floods inThailand , storms inAustralia and other severe weather related events in the U.S. including Hurricane Irene. Refer to "Consolidated Operating Results" for additional information. In our North American wholesale and specialty division, net premiums written increased primarily due to growth in Agriculture driven by our acquisition ofRain and Hail Insurance Service, Inc. (Rain and Hail). In 2011, we have written substantially more premium volume in Agriculture than we originally projected due to higher crop commodity prices. To complement our Agriculture business strategy, we acquiredPenn Millers Holding Corporation (PMHC) onNovember 30, 2011 . PMHC operates under our Insurance - North American segment. See Note 2 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information. Offsetting this was a decrease in our wholesale casualty net premiums written due to competitive market conditions and adherence to our underwriting standards. In our North American retail division, net premiums written increased in targeted classes including A&H and certain property and professional lines as well as personal lines business. Our North American portfolio benefited from positive renewal rates across most classes of property and casualty lines with greater price increases occurring in classes where industry combined ratios are under stress and where transactions require larger amounts of capacity. Net premiums written were up in our international P&C business in 2011, primarily due to growth in our international retail operations and the acquisition of Jerneh Insurance Berhad inDecember 2010 . Our international retail business reported growth in all regions including double digit growth inAsia , andLatin America and our international A&H and personal lines reported growth due to increased retention and new business writings in all regions. With respect to our International wholesale business, we continue to reduce our exposure due to inadequate pricing. Both our retail and wholesale International P&C businesses benefited from foreign exchange impact. Our Global Reinsurance segment reported a decline in net premiums written in 2011, compared with 2010, as conditions remain competitive. While net premiums written were down, our Global Reinsurance segment produced a combined ratio of 85.6 percent, reflecting good underwriting discipline and risk selection, especially considering the catastrophes recorded in 2011. 40
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A&H premiums continue to experience growth driven primarily by our international A&H business. Our Asian and Latin American A&H businesses contributed double digit growth even after adjusting for favorable foreign exchange impact. Our U.S. A&H business also demonstrated meaningful growth. In contrast, the ability to grow ourCombined Insurance premiums continues to be hampered by the economic recession in its target markets. Additionally, Combined's business in theUnited Kingdom andIreland has been impacted by changes in the regulatory environment as regulators in these two countries have adopted a new stance regarding sales practices and customer service. This has resulted in a need for us to re-evaluate our sales model and to re-engineer our processes. We have put these two operations on a sales moratorium while we re-evaluate our business model. We have decided to cease sales in the small Spanish subsidiary of Combined-Ireland indefinitely. In the fourth quarter we settled enforcement proceedings with regulators in theUnited Kingdom andIreland by paying$6.1 million and$5.2 million , respectively. We intend to seek regulatory approval to integrate all European operations of Combined into ourACE European Group Limited subsidiary, incorporated in theUnited Kingdom . We expect to seek regulatory approval to re-commence sales in theUnited Kingdom andIreland in 2012. We acquired New York Life'sKorea operations onFebruary 1, 2011 andNew York Life'sHong Kong operations onApril 1, 2011 . See Note 2 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information. The results for 2011 include eleven months of results for the acquired New York Life Korea operations and nine months of results for the acquired New York Life Hong Kong operations. Life revenues were up primarily due to these acquisitions as well as growth in our International Life business in 2011, compared with 2010. InNovember 2011 , the Board of Directors recommended an increase of 34 percent to our quarterly dividend from$0.35 per share to$0.47 per share. This increase was approved by our shareholders onJanuary 9, 2012 .
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Critical Accounting Estimates
Our Consolidated Financial Statements include amounts that, either by their nature or due to requirements of accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. (GAAP), are determined using best estimates and assumptions. While we believe that the amounts included in our Consolidated Financial Statements reflect our best judgment, actual amounts could ultimately materially differ from those currently presented. We believe the items that require the most subjective and complex estimates are:
• unpaid loss and loss expense reserves, including long-tail asbestos and environmental (A&E) reserves;
• future policy benefits reserves;
• the valuation of value of business acquired (VOBA) and amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs and VOBA;
• the assessment of risk transfer for certain structured insurance and reinsurance contracts;
• reinsurance recoverable, including a provision for uncollectible reinsurance;
• the valuation of our investment portfolio and assessment of other-than-temporary impairments (OTTI);
• the valuation of deferred tax assets;
• the valuation of derivative instruments related to guaranteed living benefits (GLB); and
• the valuation of goodwill.
We believe our accounting policies for these items are of critical importance to our Consolidated Financial Statements. The following discussion provides more information regarding the estimates and assumptions required to arrive at these amounts and should be read in conjunction with the sections entitled: PriorPeriod Development , Asbestos and Environmental (A&E) and Other Run-off Liabilities, Reinsurance Recoverable on Ceded Reinsurance, Investments, Net Realized and Unrealized Gains (Losses), and Other Income and Expense Items.
Unpaid losses and loss expenses
As an insurance and reinsurance company, we are required by applicable laws and regulations and GAAP to establish loss and loss expense reserves for the estimated unpaid portion of the ultimate liability for losses and loss expenses under the terms of our policies and agreements with our insured and reinsured customers. The estimate of the liabilities includes provisions for claims that have been reported but are unpaid at the balance sheet date (case reserves) and for obligations on claims that have been incurred but not reported (IBNR) at the balance sheet date. IBNR may also include provisions to account for the possibility that reported claims may settle for amounts that differ from the established case reserves. Loss reserves also include 41
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an estimate of expenses associated with processing and settling unpaid claims (loss expenses). AtDecember 31, 2011 , our gross unpaid loss and loss expense reserves were$37.5 billion and our net unpaid loss and loss expense reserves were$25.9 billion . With the exception of certain structured settlements, for which the timing and amount of future claim payments are reliably determinable, our loss reserves are not discounted for the time value of money. In connection with such structured settlements, we carry net discounted reserves of$59 million . The table below presents a roll-forward of our unpaid losses and loss expenses: 2011 2010 Reinsurance Reinsurance (in millions of U.S. dollars) Gross Losses Recoverable(1) Net Losses Gross Losses Recoverable(1) Net Losses Balance, beginning of year $ 37,391 $
12,149
12,845 3,325 9,520 10,855 3,276 7,579 Losses and loss expenses paid (12,780 ) (3,914 ) (8,866 ) (11,279 ) (3,866 ) (7,413 ) Other (including foreign exchange translation) (103 ) 10 (113 ) (101 ) 6 (107 ) Losses and loss expenses acquired 124 32 92 133 (12 ) 145 Balance, end of year $ 37,477 $ 11,602 $ 25,875 $ 37,391 $ 12,149 $ 25,242
(1) Net of provision for uncollectible reinsurance
The process of establishing loss reserves for property and casualty claims can be complex and is subject to considerable uncertainty as it requires the use of informed estimates and judgments based on circumstances known at the date of accrual.
The following table shows our total reserves (including loss expense reserves) segregated between case reserves and IBNR reserves:
December 31, 2011 December 31, 2010 (in millions of U.S. dollars) Gross Ceded Net Gross Ceded Net Case reserves $ 17,143 $ 5,681 $ 11,462 $ 16,899 $ 5,951 $ 10,948 IBNR reserves 20,334 5,921 14,413 20,492 6,198 14,294 Total $ 37,477 $ 11,602 $ 25,875 $ 37,391 $ 12,149 $ 25,242 42
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The following table segregates loss reserves by three broad line of business groupings: property and all other, casualty, and A&H (or personal accident). In the table, loss expenses are defined to include unallocated and allocated loss adjustment expenses. For certain lines,ACE International and ACE Bermuda products for example, loss adjustment expenses are partially included in IBNR and partially included in loss expenses. December 31, 2011 December 31, 2010 (in millions of U.S. dollars) Gross Ceded Net Gross Ceded Net Property and all other Case reserves $ 3,267 $ 1,258 $ 2,009 $ 2,871 $ 1,325 $ 1,546 Loss expenses 222 48 174 234 62 172 IBNR reserves 2,188 892 1,296 2,053 814 1,239 Subtotal 5,677 2,198 3,479 5,158 2,201 2,957 Casualty Case reserves 8,907 2,396 6,511 9,203 2,700 6,503 Loss expenses 4,165 1,849 2,316 4,034 1,733 2,301 IBNR reserves 17,451 4,811 12,640 17,704 5,132 12,572 Subtotal 30,523 9,056 21,467 30,941 9,565 21,376 A&H Case reserves 555 126 429 530 131 399 Loss expenses 27 4 23 27 - 27 IBNR reserves 695 218 477 735 252 483 Subtotal 1,277 348 929 1,292 383 909 Total Case reserves 12,729 3,780 8,949 12,604 4,156 8,448 Loss expenses 4,414 1,901 2,513 4,295 1,795 2,500 IBNR reserves 20,334 5,921 14,413 20,492 6,198 14,294 Total $ 37,477 $ 11,602 $ 25,875 $ 37,391 $ 12,149 $ 25,242 The judgments used to estimate unpaid loss and loss expense reserves require different considerations depending upon the individual circumstances underlying the insured loss. For example, the reserves established for high excess casualty claims, A&E claims, claims from major catastrophic events, or the IBNR for our various product lines each require different assumptions and judgments to be made. Necessary judgments are based on numerous factors and may be revised as additional experience and other data become available and are reviewed, as new or improved methods are developed, or as laws change. Hence, ultimate loss payments may differ from the estimate of the ultimate liabilities made at the balance sheet date. Changes to our previous estimates of prior period loss reserves impact the reported calendar year underwriting results adversely if our estimates increase and favorably if our estimates decrease. The potential for variation in loss reserves is impacted by numerous factors, which we discuss below. We establish loss and loss expense reserves for our claims liabilities for all insurance and reinsurance business that we write. For those claims reported by insureds or ceding companies to us prior to the balance sheet date, and where we have sufficient information, our claims personnel establish case reserves as appropriate based on the circumstances of the claim(s), standard claim handling practices, and professional judgment. In respect of those claims that have been incurred but not reported prior to the balance sheet date, there is, by definition, limited actual information to form the case reserve estimate and reliance is placed upon historical loss experience and actuarial methods to project the ultimate loss obligations and the corresponding amount of IBNR. Furthermore, for our assumed reinsurance operation, Global Reinsurance, an additional case reserve may be established above the amount notified by the ceding company if the notified case reserve is judged to be insufficient by Global Reinsurance's claims department (refer to "Assumed reinsurance" below). We have actuarial staff within each of our operating segments who analyze loss reserves and regularly project estimates of ultimate losses and the corresponding indications of the required IBNR reserve. Note that losses include loss expenses for the purposes of this discussion. IBNR reserve estimates are generally calculated by first projecting the ultimate amount of losses 43
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for a product line and subtracting paid losses and case reserves for reported claims. The judgments involved in projecting the ultimate losses may include the use and interpretation of various standard actuarial reserving methods that place reliance on the extrapolation of actual historical data, loss development patterns, and industry data as appropriate. The estimate of the required IBNR reserve also requires judgment by actuaries and management to reflect the impact of more contemporary and subjective factors, both qualitative and quantitative. Among some of these factors that might be considered are changes in business mix or volume, changes in ceded reinsurance structures, reported and projected loss trends, inflation, the legal environment, and the terms and conditions of the contracts sold to our insured parties. Typically, for each product line, one or more standard actuarial reserving methods may be used to estimate ultimate losses and loss expenses, and from these estimates, a single actuarial central estimate is selected. Exceptions to the use of standard actuarial projection methods occur for individual claims of significance that require complex legal, claims, and actuarial analysis and judgment (for example, A&E account projections or high excess casualty accounts in litigation) or for product lines where the nature of the claims experience and/or availability of the data prevent application of such standard methods. In addition, claims arising from certain catastrophic events require evaluations that do not utilize standard actuarial loss projection methods but are based upon our exposure at the time of the event and the circumstances of the catastrophe and its post-event impact.
Standard actuarial reserving methods
The standard actuarial reserving methods may include, but are not limited to, expected loss ratio, paid and reported loss development, and Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods. A general description of these methods is provided below. In the subsequent discussion on short- and long-tail business, reference is also made, where appropriate, to how consideration in method selection impacted 2011 results. In addition to these standard methods, we may use other recognized actuarial methods and approaches depending upon the product line characteristics and available data. To ensure that the projections of future loss emergence based on historical loss development patterns are representative of the underlying business, the historical loss and premium data is required to be of sufficient homogeneity and credibility. For example, to improve data homogeneity, we may subdivide product line data further by similar risk attribute (e.g., geography, coverage such as property versus liability exposure, or origin year), project ultimate losses for these homogenous groups and then combine the results to provide the overall product line estimate. The premium and loss data are aggregated by origin year (e.g., the year in which the losses were incurred - "accident year" or "report year", for example) and annual or quarterly development periods. Implicit in the standard actuarial methods that we generally utilize is the need for two fundamental assumptions: first, the pattern by which losses are expected to emerge over time for each origin year and second, the expected loss ratio for each origin year (i.e., accident, report, or underwriting). The expected loss ratio for any particular origin year is selected after consideration of a number of factors, including historical loss ratios adjusted for intervening rate changes, premium and loss trends, industry benchmarks, the results of policy level loss modeling at the time of underwriting, and other more subjective considerations for the product line and external environment as noted above. The expected loss ratio for a given origin year is initially established at the start of the origin year as part of the planning process. This analysis is performed in conjunction with underwriters and management. The expected loss ratio method arrives at an ultimate loss estimate by multiplying the expected ultimate loss ratio by the corresponding premium base. This method is most commonly used as the basis for the actuarial central estimate for immature origin periods on product lines where the actual paid or reported loss experience is not yet deemed sufficiently credible to serve as the principal basis for the selection of ultimate losses. The expected loss ratio for a given origin year may be modified over time if the underlying assumptions such as loss trend or premium rate changes differ from the original assumptions. Our selected paid and reported development patterns provide a benchmark against which the actual emerging loss experience can be monitored. Where possible, development patterns are selected based on historical loss emergence by origin year with appropriate allowance for changes in business mix, claims handling process, or ceded reinsurance that are likely to lead to a discernible difference between the rate of historical and future loss emergence. For product lines where the historical data is viewed to have low statistical credibility, the selected development patterns also reflect relevant industry benchmarks and/or experience from similar product lines written elsewhere within ACE. This most commonly occurs for relatively new product lines that have limited historical data or for high severity/low frequency portfolios where our historical experience exhibits considerable volatility and/or lacks credibility. The paid and reported loss development methods convert the selected loss emergence pattern to a set of multiplicative factors which are then applied to actual paid or reported losses to arrive at an estimate of ultimate losses for each period. Due to their multiplicative nature, the paid and reported loss development methods 44
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will leverage differences between actual and expected loss emergence. These methods tend to be utilized for more mature origin periods and for those portfolios where the loss emergence has been relatively consistent over time.
The Bornhuetter-Ferguson method is essentially a combination of the expected loss ratio method and the loss development method, where the loss development method is given more weight as the origin year matures. This approach allows a logical transition between the expected loss ratio method which is generally utilized at earlier maturities and the loss development methods which are typically utilized at latter maturities. We usually apply this method using reported loss data although paid data may be used. The applicability of actuarial methods will also be impacted by the attachment point of the policy or contract with the insured or ceding company. In the case of low attachment points typical of primary insurance or working layer reinsurance, the experience tends to be more frequency driven. For these product types, standard actuarial methods generally work well in determining loss reserve levels, as the loss experience is often credible, given a sufficient history and volume of claims experience. In the case of high attachment points typical of excess insurance or excess of loss reinsurance, the experience tends to be severity driven, as only a loss of significant size will enter the layer. For these product lines, it typically takes longer for loss experience to gain credibility, which adds uncertainty to the estimates derived from standard actuarial methods. For products such as our assumed reinsurance business, we typically supplement the standard actuarial methods with an analysis of each contract's terms, original pricing information, subsequent internal and external analyses of the ongoing contracts, market exposures and history, and qualitative input from claims managers. This approach is also used for structured or unique contracts.
Determining management's best estimate
Our recorded reserves represent management's best estimate of the provision for unpaid claims as of the balance sheet date. We perform an actuarial reserve review for each product line at least once a year. At the conclusion of each review, we establish an actuarial central estimate. The process to select the actuarial central estimate, when more than one estimate is available, may differ across product lines. For example, an actuary may base the central estimate on loss projections developed using an incurred loss development approach instead of a paid loss development approach when reported losses are viewed to be a more credible indication of the ultimate loss compared with paid losses. The availability of estimates for different projection techniques will depend upon the product line, the underwriting circumstances, and the maturity of the loss emergence. For a well-established product line with sufficient volume and history, the actuarial central estimate may be drawn from a weighting of paid and reported loss development and/or Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods. However, for a new long-tail product line for which we have limited data and experience or a rapidly growing line, the emerging loss experience may not have sufficient credibility to allow selection of loss development or Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods and reliance may be placed upon the expected loss ratio method until the experience matures and becomes credible. Management's best estimate is developed from the actuarial central estimate after collaboration with actuarial, underwriting, claims, legal, and finance departments and culminates with the input of reserve committees. Each business unit reserve committee includes the participation of the relevant parties from actuarial, finance, claims, and unit senior management and has the responsibility for finalizing and approving the estimate to be used as management's best estimate. Reserves are further reviewed by ACE's Chief Actuary and senior management. The objective of such a process is to determine a single estimate that we believe represents a better estimate than any other. Such an estimate is viewed by management to be the best estimate of ultimate loss settlements and is determined based on consideration of a number of factors in addition to the actuarial central estimate, including but not limited to:
• segmentation of data to provide sufficient homogeneity and credibility for loss projection methods;
• extent of internal historical loss data, and industry information where required;
• historical variability of actual loss emergence compared with expected loss emergence;
• perceived credibility of emerged loss experience; and
• nature and extent of underlying assumptions.
Management does not build in any specific provision for uncertainty.
We do not calculate ranges of loss reserve estimates for our individual loss reserve studies. Such ranges are generally not a true reflection of the potential difference between loss reserves estimated at the balance sheet date and the ultimate settlement 45
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value of losses. This is due to the fact that an actuarial range is developed based on known events as of the valuation date whereas actual prior period development reported in subsequent consolidated financial statements relates in part to events and circumstances that were unknown as of the original valuation date. While we believe that our recorded reserves are reasonable and represent management's best estimate for each product line as of the current valuation date, future changes to our view of the ultimate liabilities are possible. A five percent change in our net loss reserves equates to$1.3 billion and represents five percent of shareholders' equity atDecember 31, 2011 . Historically, including A&E reserve charges, our reserves, at times, have developed in excess of 10 percent of recorded amounts. Refer to "Analysis of Losses andLoss Expenses Development ", under Item 1, for a summary of historical volatility between estimated loss reserves and ultimate loss settlements. We perform internal loss reserve studies for all product lines at least once a year; the timing of such studies varies throughout the year. Additionally, each quarter for most product lines, we review the emergence of actual losses relative to expectations. If warranted from findings in loss emergence tests, we may alter the timing of our product line reserve studies. Finally, loss reserve studies are performed annually by external third-parties and the findings are used to test the reasonability of our internal findings. The time period between the date of loss occurrence and the final payment date of the ensuing claim(s) is referred to as the "claim-tail". The following is a discussion of specific reserving considerations for both short-tail and long-tail product lines. In this section, we reference the nature of recent prior period development to give a high-level understanding of how these considerations translate through the reserving process into financial decisions. Refer to "Consolidated Operating Results" for more information on prior period development.
Short-tail and long-tail business
Short-tail business
Short-tail business generally describes product lines for which losses are typically known and paid shortly after the loss actually occurs. This would include, for example, most property, personal accident, aviation hull, and automobile physical damage policies that we write. There are some exceptions on certain product lines or events (e.g., major hurricanes or earthquakes) where the event has occurred, but the final settlement amount is highly uncertain and not known with certainty for a potentially lengthy period. Due to the short reporting and development pattern for these product lines, the uncertainty associated with our estimate of ultimate losses for any particular accident period diminishes relatively quickly as actual loss experience emerges. We typically assign credibility to methods that incorporate actual loss emergence, such as the paid and reported loss development and Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods, sooner than would be the case for long-tail lines at a similar stage of development for a given origin year. The reserving process for short-tail losses arising from catastrophic events typically involves an assessment by the claims department, in conjunction with underwriters and actuaries, of our exposure and estimated losses immediately following an event and then subsequent revisions of the estimated losses as our insureds provide updated actual loss information. For the 2011 origin year, the short-tail line loss reserves were typically established for the non-catastrophe exposures using a combination of the expected loss ratio method and methods that incorporate actual loss emergence. As the year progressed, we also adjusted these reserves for large non-catastrophe loss activity that we considered to be greater than the historical averages. Reserves were also established for losses that arose on catastrophe activity during 2011 using the approach described above. The underlying calculation for the non-catastrophe losses requires initial expected loss ratios by product line adjusted for actual experience during the 2011 calendar year. As previously noted, the derivation of initial loss ratios incorporates actuarial projections of prior years' losses, past and expected future loss and exposure trends, rate adequacy for new and renewal business, and ceded reinsurance coverage and costs. We also considered our view of the impact of terms and conditions and the market environment, which by their nature tend to be more subjective relative to other factors. Since there is some degree of random volatility of non-catastrophe loss experience from year to year, we considered average loss experience over several years when developing loss estimates for the current accident year. For our short-tail businesses taken as a whole, overall loss trend assumptions did not differ significantly relative to prior years. In terms of prior accident years, the bulk of the changes made in the 2011 calendar year arose from origin years 2007-2009. Specifically, the Insurance -North American, Insurance - Overseas General, and Global Reinsurance segments experienced$111 million ,$136 million , and$13 million of favorable prior period development, respectively, primarily due to lower than anticipated loss emergence. In the Insurance - North American and Insurance - Overseas General segments, these prior period movements were primarily the result of changes to the ultimate loss estimates for the 2007-2009 origin years in
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response to the latest reported loss data rather than any significant changes to underlying actuarial assumptions such as loss development patterns. In the Global Reinsurance segment, the prior period movements were primarily the result of changes to the ultimate loss estimates for the 2005-2009 origin years principally in response to the latest reported loss data, rather than any significant changes to underlying actuarial assumptions such as loss development patterns.
For a detailed analysis of changes in assumptions related to short-tail prior accident year reserves during calendar year 2011, refer to "Prior
Long-tail business Long-tail business describes lines of business for which specific losses may not be known/reported for some period and for which claims can take significant time to settle/close. This includes most casualty lines such as general liability, D&O, and workers' compensation. There are many factors contributing to the uncertainty and volatility of long-tail business. Among these are: • Our historical loss data and experience is sometimes too immature and lacking in credibility to rely upon for reserving purposes. Where this is the case, in our reserve analysis we rely on industry loss ratios or industry benchmark development patterns that we believe reflect the nature and coverage of the underwritten business and its future development, where available. For such product lines, actual loss experience may differ from industry loss statistics as well as loss experience for previous underwriting years;
• The inherent uncertainty around loss trends, claims inflation (e.g., medical and judicial) and underlying economic conditions;
• The inherent uncertainty of the estimated duration of the paid and reporting loss development patterns beyond the historical record requires that professional judgment be used in the determination of the length of the patterns based on the historical data and other information; • The inherent uncertainty of assuming that historical paid and reported loss development patterns for older origin years will be representative of subsequent loss emergence on recent origin years. For example, changes over time in the processes and procedures for establishing case reserves can distort reported loss development patterns or changes in ceded reinsurance structures by origin year can alter the development of paid and reported losses; • Loss reserve analyses typically require loss or other data be grouped by common characteristics in some manner. If data from two combined lines of business exhibit different characteristics, such as loss payment patterns, the credibility of the reserve estimate could be affected. Additionally, since casualty lines of business can have significant intricacies in the terms and conditions afforded to the insured, there is an inherent risk as to the homogeneity of the underlying data used in performing reserve analyses; and
• The applicability of the price change data used to estimate ultimate loss ratios for most recent origin years.
As can be seen from the above, various factors are considered when determining appropriate data, assumptions, and methods used to establish the loss reserve estimates for long-tail product lines. These factors may also vary by origin year for given product lines. The derivation of loss development patterns from data and the selection of a tail factor to project ultimate losses from actual loss emergence require considerable judgment, particularly with respect to the extent to which historical loss experience is relied upon to support changes in key reserving assumptions. Examples of the relationship between changes in historical loss experience and key reserving assumptions are provided below. For those long-tail product lines that are less claim frequency and more claim severity oriented, such as professional lines and high excess casualty, we placed more reliance upon expert legal and claims review of the specific circumstance underlying reported cases rather than loss development patterns. Where appropriate, we then supplemented this with loss development and Bornhuetter-Ferguson approaches to provide for claims that have been reported but are too immature to develop individual claims estimates and also to provide for pure IBNR. The assumptions used for these lines of business are updated over time to reflect new claim and legal advice judged to be of significance. For the 2011 origin year, loss reserves were typically established through the application of individual product line expected loss ratios that contemplated assumptions similar in nature to those noted in the short-tail line discussion. Our assumptions on loss trend and development patterns reflect reliance on our historical loss data provided the length and volume of history and homogeneity afford credibility. For those portfolios where we feel that our data lacks credibility, our assumptions require judg- 47
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mental use of industry loss trends and development patterns. We note that industry patterns are not always available to match the nature of the business being written; this issue is particularly problematic for non-U.S. exposed lines. Given the underlying volatility of the long-tail product lines and the lengthy period required for full paid and reported loss emergence, we typically assign little to no credibility to actual loss emergence in the early development periods. Accordingly, we generally used the expected loss ratio method for the 2011 and immediately preceding origin years to establish reserves by product line. We monitor actual paid and reported loss emergence relative to expected loss emergence for most individual product lines. Recent experience has generally been favorable relative to our expectations. While we do not yet believe that this favorable experience is sufficiently credible to be fully reflected in our booked ultimate losses for immature years, we have been giving increasing weight to emerging experience as origin years mature and the loss emergence gains credibility. The process to develop 2011 origin year reserves for our long-tail casualty business relies heavily on prior origin year reserves and historical loss ratios adjusted to current rate and loss trend levels. When estimating the ultimate loss levels for these prior origin years for the major long-tail lines in Insurance -North American, Insurance - Overseas General, and Global Reinsurance no changes of significance were made to the loss development patterns, however, we have revised historical loss and exposure trend assumptions to reflect emerged frequency and severity trends observed in both our internal data and available industry data. In general, this has resulted in lower historical loss trend assumptions. While we have not assumed that these reduced loss trends continued in 2011, we have reflected this information in the process to derive expected loss ratio assumptions from historical data adjusted to 2011 origin year levels. For long-tail portfolios where actual loss emergence in calendar year 2011 was lower than expected for the more recent origin years, the deviation was not typically seen as sufficiently credible, particularly given the volatility and lengthy period for full loss emergence, to fully reflect in our booked ultimate loss selections or the actuarial assumptions underlying the reserve reviews. However, for certain product lines with early loss emergence on more recent origin years that was greater than expected, we did respond since we believe that such adverse emergence is generally significant relative to the loss emergence pattern assumptions (e.g. origin years 2008 - 2010 for casualty and financial lines in Insurance - Overseas General). Such judgments were made with due consideration to the factors impacting reserve uncertainty as discussed above. The reserve actions that we took in 2011 are discussed further below and in the section entitled "PriorPeriod Development ". Our booked reserves include reserves for what we believe to be our exposure to claims related to the credit-crunch and recent financial frauds (primarily E&O and D&O) based on information received to date. For more mature origin years, typically 2007 and prior, we gave meaningful weight to indicated ultimates derived from methods that rely on the paid and reported loss development patterns based on historical experience where sufficient credibility existed (2006 and prior for our longest tailed lines). This is consistent with our historical approach of allowing favorable loss emergence sufficient time to be reliably established before assigning it full credibility (generally five or six years). For those lines where the historical experience lacked credibility, we placed reliance upon the latest benchmark patterns (where available) from external industry bodies such as Insurance Services Office (ISO) or theNational Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. (NCCI). In such cases, the assumptions used to project ultimate loss estimates will not fully reflect our own actual loss experience until our data is deemed sufficiently credible. The prior period development in 2011 for long-tail lines of business comprised several main components. First, we experienced favorable prior period development on a number of product lines where actual loss emergence was lower than expected and/or increased weighting was given to experience-based methods as relevant origin years mature (typically 2007 and prior). In particular, this included D&O, excess casualty, and medical risk operations product lines in Insurance - North American principally in origin years 2005 and 2006 ($179 million favorable), casualty and financial lines in Insurance - Overseas General for origin years 2007 and prior ($337 million favorable), and origin years 2007 and prior for long-tail product lines in Global Reinsurance ($79 million favorable). Second, we experienced adverse development on 2008 and subsequent years principally arising from large claims activity in casualty and financial lines in Insurance - Overseas General ($183 million ) and in Insurance - North American E&O ($31 million ). Third, we experienced adverse development from Insurance - North American inactive product lines includingWestchester and Brandywine run-off operations ($102 million ). The causes for theWestchester and Brandywine operations are described further below.
For a detailed analysis of changes in assumptions related to long-tail prior accident year reserves during calendar year 2011, refer to "Prior
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Sensitivity to underlying assumptions
While we believe that our reserve for unpaid losses and loss expenses atDecember 31, 2011 , is adequate, new information or emerging trends that differ from our assumptions may lead to future development of losses and loss expenses that is significantly greater or less than the recorded reserve, which could have a material effect on future operating results. As noted previously, our best estimate of required loss reserves for most portfolios is judgmentally selected for each origin year after considering the results from any number of reserving methods and is not a purely mechanical process. Therefore, it is difficult to convey, in a simple and quantitative manner, the impact that a change to a single assumption will have on our best estimate. In the examples below, we attempt to give an indication of the potential impact by isolating a single change for a specific reserving method that would be pertinent in establishing the best estimate for the product line described. We consider each of the following sensitivity analyses to represent a reasonably likely deviation in the underlying assumption. Insurance - North American Given the long reporting and paid development patterns for workers' compensation business, the development factors used to project actual current losses to ultimate losses for the company's current exposure requires considerable judgment that could be material to consolidated loss and loss expense reserves. Specifically, adjusting ground up ultimate losses by a one percent change in the tail factor (i.e., 1.04 changed to either 1.05 or 1.03) would cause a change of approximately$315 million , either positive or negative, for the projected net loss and loss expense reserves. This represents an impact of 9.1 percent relative to recorded net loss and loss expense reserves of approximately$3.5 billion . Our ACE Bermuda operations write predominantly high excess liability coverage on an occurrence-first-reported basis (typically with attachment points in excess of$325 million and gross limits of up to$150 million ) and D&O and other professional liability coverage on a claims-made basis (typically with attachment points in excess of$125 million and gross limits of up to$50 million ). Due to the layer of exposure covered, the expected frequency for this book is very low. As a result of the low frequency/high severity nature of the book, a small difference in the actual vs. expected claim frequency, either positive or negative, could result in a material change to the projected ultimate loss if such change in claim frequency was related to a policy where close to maximum limits were deployed.
Insurance - Overseas General
Certain long-tail lines, such as casualty and professional lines, are particularly susceptible to changes in loss trend and claim inflation. Heightened perceptions of tort and settlement awards around the world are increasing the demand for these products as well as contributing to the uncertainty in the reserving estimates. Our reserving methods rely on loss development patterns estimated from historical data and while we attempt to adjust such factors for known changes in the current tort environment, it is possible that such factors may not entirely reflect all recent trends in tort environments. For example, when applying the reported loss development method, the lengthening of our selected loss development patterns by six months would increase reserve estimates on long-tail casualty and professional lines for accident years 2002-2009 by approximately$270 million . This represents an impact of 12.9 percent relative to recorded net loss and loss expense reserves of approximately$2.1 billion .
Global Reinsurance
Typically, there is inherent uncertainty around the length of paid and reported development patterns, especially for certain casualty lines such as excess workers' compensation or general liability, which may take up to 30 years to fully develop. This uncertainty is accentuated by the need to supplement client development patterns with industry development patterns due to the sometimes low credibility of the data. The underlying source and selection of the final development patterns can thus have a significant impact on the selected ultimate net losses and loss expenses. For example, a 20 percent shortening or lengthening of the development patterns used for U.S. long-tail lines would cause the loss reserve estimate derived by the reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson method for these lines to change by approximately$337 million . This represents an impact of 24.1 percent relative to recorded net loss and loss expense reserves of approximately$1.4 billion .
Assumed reinsurance
AtDecember 31, 2011 , net unpaid losses and loss expenses for the Global Reinsurance segment aggregated to$2.5 billion , consisting of$886 million of case reserves and$1.6 billion of IBNR. In comparison, atDecember 31, 2010 $2.4 billion, consisting of$830 million of case reserves and$1.6 billion of IBNR. 49
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For catastrophe business, we principally estimate unpaid losses and loss expenses on an event basis by considering various sources of information, including specific loss estimates reported by our cedants, ceding company and overall industry loss estimates reported by our brokers, and our internal data regarding reinsured exposures related to the geographical location of the event. Our internal data analysis enables us to establish catastrophe reserves for known events with more certainty at an earlier date than would be the case if we solely relied on reports from third parties to determine carried reserves. For our casualty reinsurance business, we generally rely on ceding companies to report claims and then use that data as a key input to estimate unpaid losses and loss expenses. Due to the reliance on claims information reported by ceding companies, as well as other factors, the estimation of unpaid losses and loss expenses for assumed reinsurance includes certain risks and uncertainties that are unique relative to our direct insurance business. These include, but are not necessarily limited to, the following:
• The reported claims information could be inaccurate;
• Typically, a lag exists between the reporting of a loss event to a ceding company and its reporting to us as a reinsurance claim. The use of a broker to transmit financial information from a ceding company to us increases the reporting lag. Because most of our reinsurance business is produced by brokers, ceding companies generally first submit claim and other financial information to brokers, who then report the proportionate share of such information to each reinsurer of a particular treaty. The reporting lag generally results in a longer period of time between the date a claim is incurred and the date a claim is reported compared with direct insurance operations. Therefore, the risk of delayed recognition of loss reserve development is higher for assumed reinsurance than for direct insurance lines; and • The historical claims data for a particular reinsurance contract can be limited relative to our insurance business in that there may be less historical information available. Further, for certain coverages or products, such as excess of loss contracts, there may be relatively few expected claims in a particular year so the actual number of claims may be susceptible to significant variability. In such cases, the actuary often relies on industry data from several recognized sources. We mitigate the above risks in several ways. In addition to routine analytical reviews of ceding company reports to ensure reported claims information appears reasonable, we perform regular underwriting and claims audits of certain ceding companies to ensure reported claims information is accurate, complete, and timely. As appropriate, audit findings are used to adjust claims in the reserving process. We also use our knowledge of the historical development of losses from individual ceding companies to adjust the level of adequacy we believe exists in the reported ceded losses. On occasion, there will be differences between our carried loss reserves and unearned premium reserves and the amount of loss reserves and unearned premium reserves reported by the ceding companies. This is due to the fact that we receive consistent and timely information from ceding companies only with respect to case reserves. For IBNR, we use historical experience and other statistical information, depending on the type of business, to estimate the ultimate loss. We estimate our unearned premium reserve by applying estimated earning patterns to net premiums written for each treaty based upon that treaty's coverage basis (i.e., risks attaching or losses occurring). AtDecember 31, 2011 , the case reserves reported to us by our ceding companies were$873 million , compared with the$886 million we recorded. Our policy is to post additional case reserves in addition to the amounts reported by our cedants when our evaluation of the ultimate value of a reported claim is different than the evaluation of that claim by our cedant. Within the Insurance - North American segment, we also have exposure to certain liability reinsurance lines that have been in run-off since 1994. Unpaid losses and loss expenses relating to this run-off reinsurance business resides within the Brandywine Division of our Insurance - North American segment. Most of the remaining unpaid loss and loss expense reserves for the run-off reinsurance business relate to A&E claims. (Refer to "Asbestos and Environmental (A&E) and other run-off liabilities" for additional information.)
Asbestos and environmental reserves
Included in our liabilities for losses and loss expenses are amounts for A&E (A&E liabilities). The A&E liabilities principally relate to claims arising from bodily-injury claims related to asbestos products and remediation costs associated with hazardous waste sites. The estimation of our A&E liabilities is particularly sensitive to future changes in the legal, social, and economic environment. We have not assumed any such future changes in setting the value of our A&E reserves, which include provisions for both reported and IBNR claims.
During 2011, we conducted our annual internal, ground-up review of our consolidated A&E liabilities as of
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$76 million , while the gross loss reserves increased by$241 million . In addition, we decreased gross loss reserves for Westchester Specialty's A&E and other liabilities by$29 million , and net loss reserves increased by$6 million . Our A&E reserves are not discounted for GAAP reporting and do not reflect any anticipated future changes in the legal, social or economic environment, or any benefit from future legislative reforms. There are many complex variables that we consider when estimating the reserves for our inventory of asbestos accounts and these variables may directly impact the predicted outcome. We believe the most significant variables relating to our A&E reserves include the current legal environment; specific settlements that may be used as precedents to settle future claims; assumptions regarding trends with respect to claim severity and the frequency of higher severity claims; assumptions regarding the ability to allocate liability among defendants (including bankruptcy trusts) and other insurers; the ability of a claimant to bring a claim in a state in which they have no residency or exposure; the ability of a policyholder to claim the right to unaggregated coverage; whether high-level excess policies have the potential to be accessed given the policyholder's claim trends and liability situation; payments to unimpaired claimants; and, the potential liability of peripheral defendants. Based on the policies, the facts, the law, and a careful analysis of the impact that these factors will likely have on any given account, we estimate the potential liability for indemnity, policyholder defense costs, and coverage litigation expense. The results in asbestos cases announced by other carriers or defendants may well have little or no relevance to us because coverage exposures are highly dependent upon the specific facts of individual coverage and resolution status of disputes among carriers, policyholders, and claimants.
For more information refer to "Asbestos and Environmental (A&E) and Other Run-off Liabilities" and to Note 7 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, under Item 8, for more information.
Future policy benefits reserves
We issue contracts in our Insurance - Overseas General and Life segments that are classified as long-duration. These contracts generally include accident and supplemental health products, term and whole life products, endowment products, and annuities. In accordance with GAAP, we establish reserves for contracts determined to be long-duration based on approved actuarial methods that include assumptions related to expenses, mortality, morbidity, persistency, and investment yields with a factor for adverse deviation. These assumptions are "locked in" at the inception of the contract, meaning we use our original assumptions throughout the life of the policy and do not subsequently modify them unless we deem the reserves to be inadequate. The future policy benefits reserves balance is regularly evaluated for a premium deficiency. If experience is less favorable than assumptions, additional liabilities may be required, resulting in a charge to policyholder benefits and claims.
Valuation of value of business acquired (VOBA) and amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs and VOBA
As part of the acquisition of businesses that sell long-duration contracts, such as life products, we established an intangible asset related to VOBA, which represented the fair value of the future profits of the in-force contracts. The valuation of VOBA at the time of acquisition is derived from similar assumptions to those used to establish the associated future policy benefits reserves. The most significant input in this calculation is the discount rate used to arrive at the present value of the net cash flows. We amortize deferred policy acquisition costs associated with long-duration contracts and VOBA (collectively policy acquisition costs) over the estimated life of the contracts in proportion to premium revenue recognized. The estimated life is established at the inception of the contracts or upon acquisition and is based on current persistency assumptions. Policy acquisition costs are reviewed to determine if they are recoverable from future income, including investment income. Unrecoverable costs, if any, are expensed in the period this determination is made. Risk transfer In the ordinary course of business, we both purchase (or cede) and sell (or assume) reinsurance protection. We discontinued the purchase of all finite reinsurance contracts, as a matter of policy, in 2002. For both ceded and assumed reinsurance, risk transfer requirements must be met in order to use reinsurance accounting, principally resulting in the recognition of cash flows under the contract as premiums and losses. If risk transfer requirements are not met, a contract is to be accounted for as a deposit, typically resulting in the recognition of cash flows under the contract through a deposit asset or liability and not as revenue or expense. To meet risk transfer requirements, a reinsurance contract must include both insurance risk, consisting of underwriting and timing risk, and a reasonable possibility of a significant loss for the assuming entity. We also apply similar risk transfer requirements to determine whether certain commercial insurance contracts should be accounted for as insurance or a deposit. Contracts that include fixed premium (i.e., premium not subject to adjustment based on loss experience under the contract) for fixed coverage generally transfer risk and do not require judgment. 51
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Reinsurance and insurance contracts that include both significant risk sharing provisions, such as adjustments to premiums or loss coverage based on loss experience, and relatively low policy limits as evidenced by a high proportion of maximum premium assessments to loss limits, can require considerable judgment to determine whether or not risk transfer requirements are met. For such contracts, often referred to as finite or structured products, we require that risk transfer be specifically assessed for each contract by developing expected cash flow analyses at contract inception. To support risk transfer, the cash flow analyses must demonstrate that a significant loss is reasonably possible, such as a scenario in which the ratio of the net present value of losses divided by the net present value of premiums equals or exceeds 110 percent. For purposes of cash flow analyses, we generally use a risk-free rate of return consistent with the expected average duration of loss payments. In addition, to support insurance risk, we must prove the reinsurer's risk of loss varies with that of the reinsured and/or support various scenarios under which the assuming entity can recognize a significant loss. To ensure risk transfer requirements are routinely assessed, qualitative and quantitative risk transfer analyses and memoranda supporting risk transfer are developed by underwriters for all structured products. We have established protocols for structured products that include criteria triggering an accounting review of the contract prior to quoting. If any criterion is triggered, a contract must be reviewed by a committee established by each of our operating segments with reporting oversight, including peer review, from our global Structured Transaction Review Committee. With respect to ceded reinsurance, we entered into a few multi-year excess of loss retrospectively-rated contracts, principally in 2002. These contracts primarily provided severity protection for specific product divisions. Because traditional one-year reinsurance coverage had become relatively costly, these contracts were generally entered in order to secure a more cost-effective reinsurance program. All of these contracts transferred risk and were accounted for as reinsurance. In addition, we maintain a few aggregate excess of loss reinsurance contracts that were principally entered into prior to 2003, such as the NICO contracts referred to in the section entitled, "Asbestos and Environmental (A&E) and Other Run-off Liabilities". Subsequent to the ACE INA acquisition, we have not purchased any retroactive ceded reinsurance contracts. With respect to assumed reinsurance and insurance contracts, products giving rise to judgments regarding risk transfer were primarily sold by our financial solutions business. Although we have significantly curtailed writing financial solutions business, several contracts remain in-force and principally include multi-year retrospectively-rated contracts and loss portfolio transfers. Because transfer of insurance risk is generally a primary client motivation for purchasing these products, relatively few insurance and reinsurance contracts have historically been written for which we concluded that risk transfer criteria had not been met. For certain insurance contracts that have been reported as deposits, the insured desired to self-insure a risk but was required, legally or otherwise, to purchase insurance so that claimants would be protected by a licensed insurance company in the event of non-payment from the insured. A significant portion ofACE Tempest Re USA's business is written through quota share treaties (approximately$458 million of net premiums earned in 2011, comprised of$379 million of first dollar quota share treaties and$79 million of excess quota share treaties), a small portion of which are categorized as structured products. Structured quota share treaties typically contain relatively low aggregate policy limits, a feature that reduces loss coverage in some manner, and a profit sharing provision. These have been deemed to have met risk transfer requirements. Reinsurance recoverable Reinsurance recoverable includes the balances due to us from reinsurance companies for paid and unpaid losses and loss expenses and is presented net of a provision for uncollectible reinsurance. The provision for uncollectible reinsurance is determined based upon a review of the financial condition of the reinsurers and other factors. Ceded reinsurance contracts do not relieve our primary obligation to our policyholders. Consequently, an exposure exists with respect to reinsurance recoverable to the extent that any reinsurer is unable or unwilling to meet its obligations or disputes the liabilities assumed under the reinsurance contracts. We determine the reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and loss expenses using actuarial estimates as well as a determination of our ability to cede unpaid losses and loss expenses under existing reinsurance contracts. The recognition of a reinsurance recoverable asset requires two key judgments. The first judgment involves our estimation based on the amount of gross reserves and the percentage of that amount which may be ceded to reinsurers. Ceded IBNR, which is a major component of the reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and loss expenses, is generally developed as part of our loss reserving process and, consequently, its estimation is subject to similar risks and uncertainties as the estimation of gross IBNR (refer to "Critical Accounting Estimates - Unpaid losses and loss expenses"). The second judgment involves our estimate of the amount of the reinsurance recoverable balance that we may ultimately be unable to recover from reinsurers due to insolvency, contractual dispute, or for other reasons. Amounts estimated to be uncollectible are reflected in a provision
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that reduces the reinsurance recoverable asset and, in turn, shareholders' equity. Changes in the provision for uncollectible reinsurance are reflected in net income.
Although the contractual obligation of individual reinsurers to pay their reinsurance obligations is based on specific contract provisions, the collectability of such amounts requires estimation by management. The majority of the balance we have accrued as recoverable will not be due for collection until sometime in the future, and the duration of our recoverables may be longer than the duration of our direct exposures. Over this period of time, economic conditions and operational performance of a particular reinsurer may impact their ability to meet these obligations and while they may continue to acknowledge their contractual obligation to do so, they may not have the financial resources or willingness to fully meet their obligation to us. To estimate the provision for uncollectible reinsurance, the reinsurance recoverable must first be determined for each reinsurer. This determination is based on a process rather than an estimate, although an element of judgment must be applied. As part of the process, ceded IBNR is allocated to reinsurance contracts because ceded IBNR is not generally calculated on a contract by contract basis. The allocations are generally based on premiums ceded under reinsurance contracts, adjusted for actual loss experience and historical relationships between gross and ceded losses. If actual experience varies materially from historical experience, including that used to determine ceded premium, the allocation of reinsurance recoverable by reinsurer will change. While such change is unlikely to result in a large percentage change in the provision for uncollectible reinsurance, it could, nevertheless, have a material effect on our net income in the period recorded. Generally, we use a default analysis to estimate uncollectible reinsurance. The primary components of the default analysis are reinsurance recoverable balances by reinsurer, net of collateral, and default factors used to estimate the probability that the reinsurer may be unable to meet its future obligations in full. The definition of collateral for this purpose requires some judgment and is generally limited to assets held in an ACE-only beneficiary trust, letters of credit, and liabilities held by us with the same legal entity for which we believe there is a right of offset. We do not currently include multi-beneficiary trusts. However, we have several reinsurers that have established multi-beneficiary trusts for which certain of our companies are beneficiaries. The determination of the default factor is principally based on the financial strength rating of the reinsurer and a corresponding default factor applicable to the financial strength rating. Default factors require considerable judgment and are determined using the current financial strength rating, or rating equivalent, of each reinsurer as well as other key considerations and assumptions. Significant considerations and assumptions include, but are not necessarily limited to, the following: • For reinsurers that maintain a financial strength rating from a major rating agency, and for which recoverable balances are considered representative of the larger population (i.e., default probabilities are consistent with similarly rated reinsurers and payment durations conform to averages), the judgment exercised by management to determine the provision for uncollectible reinsurance of each reinsurer is typically limited because the financial rating is based on a published source and the default factor we apply is based on a historical default factor of a major rating agency applicable to the particular rating class. Default factors applied for financial ratings of AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, and CCC, are 0.5 percent, 1.2 percent, 1.9 percent, 4.7 percent, 9.6 percent, 23.8 percent, and 49.7 percent, respectively. Because the model we use is predicated on the historical default factors of a major rating agency, we do not generally consider alternative factors. However, when a recoverable is expected to be paid in a brief period of time by a highly-rated reinsurer, such as certain property catastrophe claims, a default factor may not be applied; • For balances recoverable from reinsurers that are both unrated by a major rating agency and for which management is unable to determine a credible rating equivalent based on a parent, affiliate, or peer company, we determine a rating equivalent based on an analysis of the reinsurer that considers an assessment of the creditworthiness of the particular entity, industry benchmarks, or other factors as considered appropriate. We then apply the applicable default factor for that rating class. For balances recoverable from unrated reinsurers for which our ceded reserve is below a certain threshold, we generally apply a default factor of 25 percent; • For balances recoverable from reinsurers that are either insolvent or under regulatory supervision, we establish a default factor and resulting provision for uncollectible reinsurance based on specific facts and circumstances surrounding each company. Upon initial notification of an insolvency, we generally recognize expense for a substantial portion of all balances outstanding, net of collateral, through a combination of write-offs of recoverable balances and increases to the provision for uncollectible reinsurance. When regulatory action is taken on a reinsurer, we generally recognize a default factor by estimating an expected recovery on all balances outstanding, net of collateral. When sufficient credible information becomes available, we adjust the provision for uncollectible reinsurance by establishing a default factor pursuant to information received; and 53
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• For captives and other recoverables, management determines the provision for uncollectible reinsurance based on the specific facts and circumstances.
The following table summarizes reinsurance recoverables and the provision for uncollectible reinsurance for each type of recoverable balance atDecember 31, 2011 : Reinsurance Recoverables Recoverables on Losses (net of Provision for and Loss Usable Uncollectible (in millions of U.S. dollars) Expenses Collateral) Reinsurance
Type
Reinsurers with credit ratings $ 9,433 $ 8,153 $ 217 Reinsurers not rated 422 361 81 Reinsurers under supervision and insolvent reinsurers 162 149 100 Captives 1,844 362 37 Other - structured settlements and pools 1,007 1,006 44 Total $ 12,868 $ 10,031 $ 479 AtDecember 31, 2011 , the use of different assumptions within our approach could have a material effect on the provision for uncollectible reinsurance reflected in our Consolidated Financial Statements. To the extent the creditworthiness of our reinsurers were to deteriorate due to an adverse event affecting the reinsurance industry, such as a large number of major catastrophes, actual uncollectible amounts could be significantly greater than our provision for uncollectible reinsurance. Such an event could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations, and our liquidity. Given the various considerations used to estimate our uncollectible provision, we cannot precisely quantify the effect a specific industry event may have on the provision for uncollectible reinsurance. However, based on the composition (particularly the average credit quality) of the reinsurance recoverable balance atDecember 31, 2011 , we estimate that a ratings downgrade of one notch for all rated reinsurers (i.e., from A to A- or A- to BBB+) could increase our provision for uncollectible reinsurance by approximately$106 million or approximately one percent of the reinsurance recoverable balance, assuming no other changes relevant to the calculation. While a ratings downgrade would result in an increase in our provision for uncollectible reinsurance and a charge to earnings in that period, a downgrade in and of itself does not imply that we will be unable to collect all of the ceded reinsurance recoverable from the reinsurers in question. Refer to Note 5 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, under Item 8, for more information.
Other-than-temporary impairments (OTTI)
Each quarter, we review our securities in an unrealized loss position (impaired securities), including fixed maturities, securities lending collateral, equity securities, and other investments, to identify those impaired securities to be specifically evaluated for a potential OTTI. Because our investment portfolio is the largest component of consolidated assets and a multiple of shareholders' equity, OTTI could be material to our financial condition and results of operations. Refer to Note 3 d) to the Consolidated Financial Statements for a description of the process by which we evaluate investments for OTTI.
Deferred tax assets
Many of our insurance businesses operate in income tax-paying jurisdictions. Our deferred tax assets and liabilities primarily result from temporary differences between the amounts recorded in our Consolidated Financial Statements and the tax basis of our assets and liabilities. We determine deferred tax assets and liabilities separately for each tax-paying component (an individual entity or group of entities that is consolidated for tax purposes) in each tax jurisdiction. The realization of deferred tax assets depends upon the existence of sufficient taxable income within the carryback or carryforward periods under the tax law in the applicable tax jurisdiction. AtDecember 31, 2011 , our net deferred tax asset was$612 million . (Refer to Note 8 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for more information). At each balance sheet date, management assesses the need to establish a valuation allowance that reduces deferred tax assets when it is more likely than not that all, or some portion, of the deferred tax assets will not be realized. The valuation allowance is based on all available information including projections of future taxable income from each tax-paying component in each tax jurisdiction, principally derived from business plans and available tax planning strategies. Projections of future taxable income incorporate several assumptions of future business and operations that are apt to
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differ from actual experience. The valuation allowance is also based on maintaining our ability and intent to hold our U.S. available for sale fixed maturities to recovery. If, in the future, our assumptions and estimates that resulted in our forecast of future taxable income for each tax-paying component prove to be incorrect, or future market events occur that prevent our ability to hold our U.S. fixed maturities to recovery, an additional valuation allowance could become necessary. This could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations, and liquidity. AtDecember 31, 2011 , the valuation allowance of$57 million (including$24 million with respect to foreign tax credits) reflects management's assessment that it is more likely than not that a portion of the deferred tax asset will not be realized due to the inability of certain foreign subsidiaries to generate sufficient taxable income and the inability ofACE Group Holdings and its subsidiaries to utilize foreign tax credits. Fair value measurements The accounting guidance on fair value measurements defines fair value as the price to sell an asset or transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants and establishes a three-level valuation hierarchy in which inputs into valuation techniques used to measure fair value are classified. The fair value hierarchy gives the highest priority to quoted prices in active markets (Level 1 inputs) and the lowest priority to unobservable data (Level 3 inputs). Inputs in Level 1 are unadjusted quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets. Level 2 includes inputs other than quoted prices included within Level 1 that are observable for assets or liabilities either directly or indirectly. Level 2 inputs include, among other items, quoted prices for similar assets and liabilities in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar assets and liabilities in markets that are not active, and inputs other than quoted prices that are observable for the asset or liability such as interest rates and yield curves. Level 3 inputs are unobservable and reflect our judgments about assumptions that market participants would use in pricing an asset or liability. We categorize financial instruments within the valuation hierarchy at the balance sheet date based upon the lowest level of inputs that are significant to the fair value measurement. Accordingly, transfers between levels within the valuation hierarchy occur when there are significant changes to the inputs, such as increases or decreases in market activity, changes to the availability of current prices, changes to the transparency to underlying inputs, and whether there are significant variances in quoted prices. Transfers in and/or out of any level are assumed to occur at the end of the period. While we obtain values for the majority of the investment securities we hold from one or more pricing services, it is ultimately management's responsibility to determine whether the values obtained and recorded in the financial statements are representative of fair value. We periodically update our understanding of the methodologies used by our pricing services in order to validate that the prices obtained from those services are consistent with the GAAP definition of fair value as an exit price. Based on our understanding of the methodologies, our pricing services only produce an estimate of fair value if there is observable market information that would allow them to make a fair value estimate. Based on our understanding of the market inputs used by our pricing services, all applicable investments have been valued in accordance with GAAP valuation principles. We have controls to review significant price changes and stale pricing, and to ensure that prices received from pricing services have been accurately reflected in the consolidated financial statements. We do not typically adjust prices obtained from pricing services. Additionally, the valuation of fixed maturity investments is more subjective when markets are less liquid due to the lack of market based inputs (i.e., stale pricing), which may increase the potential that the estimated fair value of an investment is not reflective of the price at which an actual transaction would occur. For a small number of fixed maturities, we obtain a quote from a broker (typically a market maker). Due to the disclaimers on the quotes that indicate that the price is indicative only, we include these fair value estimates in Level 3. AtDecember 31, 2011 , Level 3 assets represented four percent of assets that are measured at fair value and two percent of total assets and Level 3 liabilities represented 100 percent of liabilities that are measured at fair value and two percent of total liabilities. During 2011, we transferred$70 million out of our Level 3 assets. Refer to Note 4 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for a description of the valuation techniques and inputs used to determine fair values for our financial instruments carried or disclosed at fair value by valuation hierarchy (Levels 1, 2, and 3) as well as a roll-forward of Level 3 financial instruments for the years endedDecember 31, 2011 , 2010, and 2009.
Guaranteed living benefits (GLB) derivatives
Under life reinsurance programs covering living benefit guarantees, we assumed the risk of GLBs associated with variable annuity (VA) contracts. We ceased writing this business in 2007. Our GLB reinsurance product meets the definition of a 55
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derivative for accounting purposes and is therefore carried at fair value. We believe that the most meaningful presentation of these derivatives is to reflect cash inflows or revenue as net premiums earned, and to record estimates of the average modeled value of future cash outflows as incurred losses. Accordingly, we recognize benefit reserves consistent with the accounting guidance related to accounting and reporting by insurance enterprises for certain non-traditional long-duration contracts and for separate accounts. Changes in the benefit reserves are reflected as Policy benefits expense, which is included in life underwriting income. The incremental difference between fair value and benefit reserves is reflected in Accounts payable, accrued expenses, and other liabilities in the consolidated balance sheet and related changes in fair value are reflected in Net realized gains (losses) in the consolidated statement of operations. We intend to hold these derivative contracts to maturity (i.e., the expiration of the underlying liabilities through lapse, annuitization, death, or expiration of the reinsurance contract). At maturity, the cumulative gains and losses will net to zero (excluding cumulative hedge gains or losses) because, over time, the insurance liability will be increased or decreased to equal our obligation. For a sensitivity discussion of the effect of changes in interest rates, equity indices, and other assumptions on the fair value of GLBs, and the resulting impact on our net income, refer to Item 7A. For further description of this product and related accounting treatment, refer to Note 1 j) to the Consolidated Financial Statements. The fair value of GLB reinsurance is estimated using an internal valuation model, which includes current market information and estimates of policyholder behavior from the perspective of a theoretical market participant that would assume these liabilities. All of our treaties contain claim limits, which are factored into the valuation model. The fair value depends on a number of factors, including interest rates, current account value, market volatility, expected annuitization rates and other policyholder behavior, and changes in policyholder mortality. The model and related assumptions are continuously re-evaluated by management and enhanced, as appropriate, based upon additional experience obtained related to policyholder behavior and availability of more timely market information, such as market conditions and demographics of in-force annuities. Due to the inherent uncertainties of the assumptions used in the valuation models to determine the fair value of these derivative products, actual experience may differ from the estimates reflected in our Consolidated Financial Statements, and the differences may be material. The most significant policyholder behavior assumptions include lapse rates and the guaranteed minimum income benefit (GMIB) annuitization rates. Assumptions regarding lapse rates and GMIB annuitization rates differ by treaty but the underlying methodologies to determine rates applied to each treaty are comparable. The assumptions regarding lapse and GMIB annuitization rates determined for each treaty are based on a dynamic calculation that uses several underlying factors. A lapse rate is the percentage of in-force policies surrendered in a given calendar year. All else equal, as lapse rates increase, ultimate claim payments will decrease. Key factors affecting the lapse rate assumption include investment performance and policy duration. In general, the base lapse function assumes low lapse rates (ranging from about 1 percent to 6 percent per annum) during the surrender charge period of the variable annuity contract, followed by a "spike" lapse rate (ranging from about 10 percent to 30 percent per annum) in the year immediately following the surrender charge period, and then reverting to an ultimate lapse rate (generally around 10 percent per annum), typically over a 2-year period. This base rate is adjusted downward for policies with more valuable (more "in the money") guarantees by multiplying the base lapse rate by a factor ranging from 15 percent to 75 percent. Additional lapses due to partial withdrawals and older policyholders with tax-qualified contracts (due to required minimum distributions) are also included. The GMIB annuitization rate is the percentage of policies for which the policyholder will elect to annuitize using the guaranteed benefit provided under the GMIB. All else equal, as GMIB annuitization rates increase, ultimate claim payments will increase, subject to treaty claim limits. Key factors affecting the GMIB annuitization rate include investment performance and the level of interest rates after the GMIB waiting period, since these factors determine the value of the guarantee to the policyholder. In general, we assume that GMIB annuitization rates will be higher for policies with more valuable (more "in the money") guarantees. In addition, we also assume that GMIB annuitization rates are higher in the first year immediately following the waiting period (the first year the policies are eligible to annuitize utilizing the GMIB) in comparison to all subsequent years. We do not yet have a robust set of annuitization experience because most of our clients' policyholders are not yet eligible to annuitize utilizing the GMIB. However, for certain clients there are several years of annuitization experience - for those clients the annuitization function reflects the actual experience and has a maximum annuitization rate per annum of 8 percent (a higher maximum applies in the first year a policy is eligible to annuitize utilizing the GMIB - it is over 13 percent). For most clients there is no currently observable relevant annuitization behavior data and so we use a weighted average (with a heavier weighting on the observed experience noted previously) of three different annuitization functions with maximum annuitization rates per annum of 8 percent, 12 percent, and 30 percent, respectively (with significantly higher rates in the first year a policy is
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eligible to annuitize utilizing the GMIB). As noted elsewhere, our GMIB reinsurance treaties include claim limits to protect us in the event that actual annuitization behavior is significantly higher than expected.
Based on our 2011 review, no changes were made to actuarial or behavior assumptions. We made minor technical refinements to the model with a favorable net income impact of approximately
During the year endedDecember 31, 2011 , we recorded realized losses of$812 million primarily due to increasing net fair value of reported GLB reinsurance liabilities resulting substantially from falling interest rates, falling international equity markets and the annual collection of premium. This excludes realized losses of$4 million , during the year endedDecember 31, 2011 on derivative hedge instruments held to partially offset the risk in the VA guarantee reinsurance portfolio. These derivatives do not receive hedge accounting treatment. Refer to the "Net Realized and Unrealized Gains (Losses)" section for a breakdown of the realized gains (losses) on GLB reinsurance and derivatives for the years ended 2011 and 2010. ACE Tempest Life Re employs a strategy to manage the financial market and policyholder behavior risks embedded in the reinsurance of VA guarantees. Risk management begins with underwriting a prospective client and guarantee design, with particular focus on protecting our position from policyholder options that, because of anti-selective behavior, could adversely impact our obligation. A second layer of risk management is the structure of the reinsurance contracts. All VA guarantee reinsurance contracts include some form of annual or aggregate claim limit(s). The different categories of claim limits are described below: • Reinsurance programs covering GMDB with an annual claim limit of 2 percent of account value. This category accounts for approximately 65 percent of the total reinsured GMDB guaranteed value. Less than 1 percent of the guaranteed value in this category has additional reinsurance coverage for GLB. • Reinsurance programs covering GMDB with claim limit(s) that are a function of the underlying guaranteed value. This category accounts for approximately 20 percent of the total reinsured GMDB guaranteed value. The annual claim limit expressed as a percentage of guaranteed value ranges from 0.4 percent to 2 percent. Approximately 75 percent of guaranteed value in this category is also subject to annual claim deductibles that range from 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of guaranteed value (i.e., our reinsurance coverage would only pay total annual claims in excess of 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of the total guaranteed value). Approximately 50 percent of guaranteed value in this category is also subject to an aggregate claim limit which was approximately$380 million as ofDecember 31, 2011 . Approximately 75 percent of guaranteed value in this category has additional reinsurance coverage for GLB. • Reinsurance programs covering GMDB and Guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefits (GMAB). This category accounts for approximately 20 percent of the total reinsured GLB guaranteed value and 15 percent of the total reinsured GMDB guaranteed value. These reinsurance programs are quota-share agreements with the quota-share decreasing as the ratio of account value to guaranteed value decreases. The quota-share is 100 percent for ratios between 100 percent and 75 percent, 60 percent for additional losses on ratios between 75 percent and 45 percent, and 30 percent for further losses on ratios below 45 percent. Approximately 35 percent of guaranteed value in this category is also subject to a claim deductible of 8.8 percent of guaranteed value (i.e., our reinsurance coverage would only pay when the ratio of account value to guaranteed value is below 91.2 percent). • Reinsurance programs covering GMIB with an annual claim limit. This category accounts for approximately 50 percent of the total reinsured GLB guaranteed value. The annual claim limit is 10 percent of guaranteed value on over 95 percent of the guaranteed value in this category. Additionally, reinsurance programs in this category have an annual annuitization limit that ranges between 17.5 percent and 30 percent with approximately 65 percent of guaranteed value subject to an annuitization limit of 20 percent or under, and the remaining 35 percent subject to an annuitization limit of 30 percent. Approximately 40 percent of guaranteed value in this category is also subject to minimum annuity conversion factors that limit the exposure to low interest rates. Approximately 40 percent of guaranteed value in this category has additional reinsurance coverage for GMDB. • Reinsurance programs covering GMIB with aggregate claim limit. This category accounts for approximately 30 percent of the total reinsured GLB guaranteed value. The aggregate claim limit for reinsurance programs in this category is approximately$1.9 billion . Additionally, reinsurance programs in this category have an annual annuitization limit of 20 percent and approximately 55 percent of guaranteed value in this category is also subject to minimum annuity conversion factors that limit the exposure to low interest rates. Approximately 45 percent of guaranteed value in this category has additional reinsurance coverage for GMDB. 57
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A third layer of risk management is the hedging strategy which is focused on mitigating long-term economic losses at a portfolio level. ACE Tempest Life Re owned financial market instruments as part of the hedging strategy with a fair value of$38 million and$21 million atDecember 31, 2011 and 2010, respectively. The instruments are substantially collateralized by our counterparties, on a daily basis. We also limit the aggregate amount of variable annuity reinsurance guarantee risk we are willing to assume. The last substantive U.S. transaction was quoted in mid-2007 and the last transaction inJapan was quoted in late 2007. The aggregate number of policyholders is currently decreasing through policyholder withdrawals and deaths at a rate of 5-10 percent annually. Note that GLB claims cannot occur for any reinsured policy until it has reached the end of its "waiting period". The vast majority of policies we reinsure reach the end of their "waiting periods" in 2013 or later, as shown in the table below. Percent of living benefit Year of first payment eligibility account values 2011 and prior 1% 2012 7% 2013 23% 2014 18% 2015 5% 2016 5% 2017 19% 2018 and after 22% Total 100% The following table provides the historical cash flows under these policies for the periods indicated. The amounts represent accrued past premium received and claims paid, split by benefit type. (in millions of U.S. dollars) 2011 2010 Death Benefits (GMDB) Premium $ 98 $ 109 Less paid claims 117 127 Net $ (19 ) $ (18 ) Living Benefits (Includes GMIB and GMAB) Premium $ 164 $ 163 Less paid claims 3 3 Net $ 161 $ 160 Total VA Guaranteed Benefits Premium $ 262 $ 272 Less paid claims 120 130 Net $ 142 $ 142 Death Benefits (GMDB)
For premiums and claims from VA contracts reinsuring GMDBs, at current market levels, we expect approximately
GLB (includes GMIB and GMAB)
Our GLB's predominantly include premiums and claims from VA contracts reinsuring GMIB and GMAB. Substantially all of our living benefit reinsurance clients' policyholders are currently ineligible to trigger a claim payment. The vast majority of these policyholders become eligible in years 2013 and beyond. At current market levels, we expect approximately$1 million of claims and$156 million of premium on living benefits over the next 12 months.
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Collateral
In order for its U.S.-domiciled clients to obtain statutory reserve credit, ACE Tempest Life Re holds collateral on behalf of its clients in the form of qualified assets in trust or letters of credit, in an amount sufficient for them to obtain statutory reserve credit. The timing of the calculation and amount of the collateral varies by client according to the particulars of the reinsurance treaty and the statutory reserve guidelines of the client's state of domicile. Goodwill Impairment Goodwill, which represents the excess of acquisition cost over the estimated fair value of net assets acquired, was$4.2 billion atDecember 31, 2011 . During 2011, our goodwill balance increased by approximately four percent, primarily due to acquisitions. Goodwill is not amortized but is subject to a periodic evaluation for impairment at least annually, or earlier if there are any indications of possible impairment. The impairment evaluation first uses a qualitative assessment to determine whether it is more likely than not (i.e., more than a 50 percent probability) that the fair value of a reporting unit is greater than its carrying amount. If a reporting unit fails this qualitative assessment a quantitative analysis is used. The quantitative analysis is a two-step process in which an initial assessment for potential impairment is performed and, if a potential impairment is present, the amount of impairment is measured and recorded. Impairment is tested at the reporting unit level. Goodwill is assigned to applicable reporting units of acquired entities at acquisition. The most significant reporting units are:
• New York Life's
• Rain and Hail acquired in 2010;
• North American and International divisions of
• Domestic and International divisions of ACE INA acquired in 1999; and
• ACE Tempest Re's catastrophe businesses acquired in 1996 and 1998.
There are other reporting units that resulted from smaller acquisitions that are also assessed annually. A quantitative goodwill impairment analysis was prepared in 2011 for the North American and International divisions ofCombined Insurance with goodwill balances of$738 million and$130 million , respectively. Based on our impairment testing for 2011, we determined that no impairment was required and that none of our reporting units were at risk for impairment. To estimate the fair value of a reporting unit, we consistently applied a combination of the following models: an earnings multiple, a book value multiple, a discounted cash flow or an allocated market capitalization. The earnings and book value models apply multiples, including the consideration of a control premium, of comparable publicly traded companies to forecasted earnings or book value of each reporting unit and consider current market transactions. The discounted cash flow model applies a discount to estimated cash flows including a terminal value calculation. The market capitalization model applies a control premium to our market capitalization and, as adjusted, compares the allocated market capitalization to the allocated book value of each reporting unit. To determine an appropriate control premium, we considered both the mean and range of control premiums paid in our industry for recent transactions involving businesses similar to our reporting units. We then selected a control premium within the range appropriate to our business. We must assess whether the current fair value of our reporting units is at least equal to the fair value used in the determination of goodwill. In doing this, we make assumptions and estimates about the profitability attributable to our reporting units, including:
• short-term and long-term growth rates;
• estimated cost of equity and changes in long-term risk-free interest rates;
• selection of appropriate earnings and book value market multiples to be used in various multiple approaches; and
• risk premium applied in determining discount rate for calculating net present value of estimated future cash flows.
If our assumptions and estimates made in assessing the fair value of acquired entities change in the future, goodwill could be materially adjusted. This would cause us to write-down the carrying value of goodwill and could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations in the period the charge is taken. 59
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Table of Contents -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Consolidated Operating Results - Years Ended
% Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, except for 2011 vs. 2010 vs. percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Net premiums written $ 15,372 $ 13,708 $ 13,299 12% 3% Net premiums earned 15,387 13,504 13,240 14% 2% Net investment income 2,242 2,070 2,031 8% 2% Net realized gains (losses) (795 ) 432 (196 ) NM NM Total revenues 16,834 16,006 15,075 5% 6% Losses and loss expenses 9,520 7,579 7,422 26% 2% Policy benefits 401 357 325 12% 10% Policy acquisition costs 2,447 2,337 2,130 5% 10% Administrative expenses 2,052 1,858 1,811 10% 3% Interest expense 250 224 225 12% 0% Other (income) expense 73 (16 ) 85 NM NM Total expenses 14,743 12,339 11,998 19% 3% Income before income tax 2,091 3,667 3,077 (43)% 19% Income tax expense 506 559 528 (9)% 6% Net income $ 1,585 $ 3,108 $ 2,549 (49)% 22% NM - not meaningful The following table summarizes by major product line the approximate effect of changes in foreign currency exchange rates on the growth of net premiums written and earned for the periods indicated: 2011 2010 2009 P&C A&H Total Total Total Net premiums written: Growth in original currency 12.0% 4.1% 10.0% 1.7% 4.8% Foreign exchange effect 1.5% 3.9% 2.1% 1.4% (3.1)% Growth as reported in U.S. dollars 13.5% 8.0% 12.1% 3.1% 1.7% Net premiums earned: Growth in original currency 14.1% 3.8% 11.4% 0.7% 3.5% Foreign exchange effect 1.8% 4.1% 2.5% 1.3% (3.2)% Growth as reported in U.S. dollars 15.9% 7.9% 13.9% 2.0% 0.3%
The following table shows a breakdown of our consolidated net premiums written for the periods indicated:
% Change (in millions of U.S dollars, except 2011 vs. 2010 vs. for percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Retail P&C $ 6,255 $ 6,533 $ 6,347 -4% 3 % Wholesale 3,735 2,212 2,222 69% 0 % Reinsurance 979 1,075 1,038 -9% 4 % Property, casualty and all other 10,969 9,820 9,607 12% 2 % Personal accident (A&H) 3,613 3,346 3,229 8% 4 % Life 790 542 463 46% 17 % Total consolidated $ 15,372 $ 13,708 $ 13,299 12% 3 % 60
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Net premiums written, which reflect the premiums we retain after purchasing reinsurance protection increased in 2011, compared with 2010. Our North American wholesale and specialty division benefited from the acquisition of Rain and Hail inDecember 2010 , reporting significant premium growth in ACE Agriculture. Our North American retail division reported less net premiums written due to lower production across several lines of business reflecting competitive market conditions and adherence to our underwriting strategies as well as less assumed loss portfolio business. Our International retail business reported growth, partially offset by reinstatement premiums expensed in connection with first quarter catastrophe activity. Our Global Reinsurance operations reported a decline in net premiums written in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to competitive market conditions and lower exposures. The Life segment reported an increase in net premiums written due primarily to the acquisition ofNew York Life'sKorea operations andHong Kong operations. Net premiums earned reflect the portion of net premiums written that were recorded as revenues for the period as the exposure periods expire. Net premiums earned increased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to increases in net premiums earned in ACE Agriculture, A&H and international retail businesses, partially offset by less assumed loss portfolio transfers and lower production within our Global Reinsurance segment andLondon wholesale businesses.
The following table provides a consolidated breakdown of net premiums earned by line of business for the periods indicated:
% Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, 2011 vs. 2010 vs. except for percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Property and all other $ 5,712 $ 3,898 $ 4,023 47% (3 )% Casualty 5,340 5,752 5,587 (7)% 3 % Subtotal 11,052 9,650 9,610 15% 0 % Personal accident (A&H) 3,594 3,331 3,198 8% 4 % Life 741 523 432 42% 21 % Net premiums earned $ 15,387 $ 13,504 $ 13,240 14 % 2 % 2011 2010 2009 % of total % of total % of total
Property and all other 37% 29%
30% Casualty 35% 43% 42% Subtotal 72% 72% 72%
Personal accident (A&H) 23% 25%
25% Life 5% 3% 3% Net premiums earned 100 % 100 % 100 % Net investment income increased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to positive operating cash flows and the impact of acquisitions which have resulted in a higher overall average invested asset base, partially offset by lower yields on new investments and short-term securities. Refer to "Net Investment Income" and "Investments". In evaluating our segments excluding Life, we use the combined ratio, the loss and loss expense ratio, the policy acquisition cost ratio, and the administrative expense ratio. We calculate these ratios by dividing the respective expense amounts by net premiums earned. We do not calculate these ratios for the Life segment as we do not use these measures to monitor or manage that segment. The combined ratio is determined by adding the loss and loss expense ratio, the policy acquisition cost ratio, and the administrative expense ratio. A combined ratio under 100 percent indicates underwriting income and a combined ratio exceeding 100 percent indicates underwriting loss. The following table shows our consolidated loss and loss expense ratio, policy acquisition cost ratio, administrative expense ratio, and combined ratio for the periods indicated: 2011 2010 2009 Loss and loss expense ratio 65.7% 59.2% 58.8% Policy acquisition cost ratio 16.0% 17.4% 16.2% Administrative expense ratio 12.9% 13.6% 13.3% Combined ratio 94.6% 90.2% 88.3% 61
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The following table shows the impact of catastrophe losses and related reinstatement premiums and the impact of prior period development on our consolidated loss and loss expense ratio for the periods indicated:
2011 2010 2009 Loss and loss expense ratio, as reported 65.7% 59.2% 58.8%
Catastrophe losses and related reinstatement premiums (6.4)% (3.2)%
(1.2)% Prior period development 4.1% 4.6% 4.9% Large assumed loss portfolio transfers 0.0% (0.3)% (0.8)% Loss and loss expense ratio, adjusted 63.4% 60.3% 61.7%
The table below shows the impact of the catastrophe losses by segment.
Catastrophe Loss Charges - Full Year 2011
Insurance - Insurance - North Overseas Global (in millions of U.S. dollars) American General Reinsurance Total Net loss Q2 US storms $ 128 $ 21 $ 31 $ 180 Japan Earthquake 35 64 55 154 New Zealand Earthquakes 1 65 70 136 Thailand Floods 27 91 - 118 Hurricane Irene 76 17 11 104 Q1 Australian Storms 3 47 10 60 Cyclone Yasi - 8 17 25 Other events throughout the year 77 16 14 107 Global Cat Recovery - - (25 ) (25 ) Total $ 347 $ 329 $ 183 $ 859 Reinstatement premiums (earned) expensed 5 42 (7 ) 40 Total before income tax $ 352 $ 371 $ 176 $ 899 Income tax benefit (86 ) (43 ) (3 ) (132 ) Total after income tax $ 266 $ 328 $ 173 $ 767 We experienced total net pre-tax catastrophe losses of$859 million , before reinstatement premiums expensed, in 2011, compared with net pre-tax catastrophe losses of$366 million , before reinstatement premiums expensed, in 2010. The catastrophe losses incurred in 2011, were primarily related to earthquakes inJapan andNew Zealand , the flooding inThailand , storms inAustralia and other severe weather related events in the U.S. including Hurricane Irene. Reinsurance recoverables are due from highly rated reinsurers. Prior period development arises from changes to loss estimates recognized in the current year that relate to loss reserves first reported in previous calendar years and excludes the effect of losses from the development of earned premium from previous accident years. We experienced$556 million of net favorable prior period development in 2011. This compares with net favorable prior period development of$503 million in 2010. Refer to "PriorPeriod Development " for additional information. Our policy acquisition costs include commissions, premium taxes, underwriting, and other costs that vary with, and are primarily related to, the production of premium. Administrative expenses include all other operating costs. Our policy acquisition cost ratio decreased in 2011, compared with 2010. Insurance - North American reported a decline in its policy acquisition cost ratio primarily reflecting a shift in the mix of business towards lower acquisition cost lines of business, primarily Agriculture. This favorable impact on the policy acquisition cost ratio was offset by changes in business mix and the impact of reinstatement premiums expensed, mainly within the Insurance - Overseas General segment.
Our administrative expense ratio decreased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to the growth of low expense ratio business generated by Agriculture partially offset by the impact of reinstatement premiums expensed and less assumed loss portfolio business. Assumed loss portfolio transfers typically generate minimal expenses.
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Our effective income tax rate, which we calculate as income tax expense divided by income before income tax, is dependent upon the mix of earnings from different jurisdictions with various tax rates. A change in the geographic mix of earnings would change the effective income tax rate. Our effective income tax rate was 24 percent in 2011, compared with 15 percent and 17 percent in 2010 and 2009, respectively. The increase in our effective income tax rate in 2011 was primarily due to a higher percentage of net realized losses being generated in lower tax-paying jurisdictions. The 2010 year included a decrease in the amount of unrecognized tax benefits resulting from a settlement with theInternal Revenue Service regarding federal tax returns for the years 2002-2004, and the recognition of a non-taxable gain related to the acquisition of Rain and Hail. The 2009 year included a reduction of a deferred tax valuation allowance related to investments. PriorPeriod Development The favorable prior period development of$556 million during 2011 was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements. In the sections following the tables below, significant prior period movements within each reporting segment are discussed in more detail. Long-tail lines include lines such as workers' compensation, general liability, and professional liability; while short-tail lines include lines such as most property lines, energy, personal accident, aviation, and marine (including associated liability-related exposures).
The following table summarizes (favorable) and adverse prior period development by segment for the periods indicated:
Year Ended December 31 % of net (in millions of U.S. dollars, except for unpaid percentages) Long-tail Short-tail Total reserves*
2011
Insurance - North American - active $ (186 ) $ (111 ) $ (297 )
1.9 % Insurance - North American - runoff** 102 - 102 0.6 % Insurance - Overseas General (154 ) (136 ) (290 ) 4.2 % Global Reinsurance (58 ) (13 ) (71 ) 3.1 % Total $ (296 ) $ (260 ) $ (556 ) 2.2 % 2010
Insurance - North American - active $ (102 ) $ (137 ) $ (239 )
1.5 % Insurance - North American - runoff** 132 - 132 0.8 % Insurance - Overseas General (159 ) (131 ) (290 ) 4.3 % Global Reinsurance (72 ) (34 ) (106 ) 4.7 % Total $ (201 ) $ (302 ) $ (503 ) 2.0 % 2009
Insurance - North American - active $ (162 ) $ (105 ) $ (267 )
1.7 % Insurance - North American - runoff** 88 - 88 0.5 % Insurance - Overseas General (140 ) (115 ) (255 ) 4.2 % Global Reinsurance (93 ) (49 ) (142 ) 5.6 % Total $ (307 ) $ (269 ) $ (576 ) 2.4 %
* Calculated based on the segment/total beginning of period net unpaid loss and loss expenses reserves.
**
Insurance -North American Insurance - North American's active operations experienced net favorable prior period development of$297 million in 2011 which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements driven by the following principal changes:
•Net favorable development of
•Favorable development of$82 million on our D&O portfolios affecting the 2006 and prior accident years. The favorable movement was due to lower than expected case incurred activity, including reductions in individual large claims, and greater weight given to experienced based projection methods; •Favorable development of$54 million in our excess casualty businesses affecting the 2005 and prior accident years. Incurred losses have continued to be favorable relative to our projections; in addition, as these accident years have matured, more weight has been given to experience-based methods which has also resulted in a refinement of our estimate; 63
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•Favorable development of$43 million in our medical risk operations, primarily impacting the 2006 and prior accident years. This portfolio, composed largely of excess hospital professional liability insurance, experienced continued low levels of reported and paid loss activity leading to reduced estimates of ultimate loss versus our prior review; •Favorable development of$28 million on our national accounts portfolios which consist of commercial auto liability, general liability, and workers' compensation lines of business. The favorable development is the net impact of favorable and unfavorable movements, including: •Favorable development of$40 million on the 2010 accident year primarily relating to our annual assessment of multi-claimant events including industrial accidents. Consistent with prior years, we reviewed these potential exposures after the close of the accident year to allow for late reporting or identification of significant losses; •Favorable development of$33 million on the 2003 through 2007 accident years, primarily in workers' compensation. Case activity in these portfolios, especially in our excess and high deductible products, has continued to be lower than expected. As these accident years matured, greater weight has been given to experience-based methods. The combination of this lower than expected activity and shift in weighting methodology has resulted in this favorable development; and
•Adverse development of
• Favorable development of$26 million on the 2002 though 2010 accident years in our financial solutions business unit relating to a single account. This development is due to more refined claimant level information provided by the insured in 2011. Analysis of this data led to reduction in our estimates of future losses as well as a recovery of past overpayments; • Favorable development of$26 million in our foreign casualty product affecting the 2007 and prior accident years. The paid and reported loss activity on the general liability and employers liability lines for this product were lower than expectations based on our prior review, resulting in reductions in ultimate losses for these coverage lines; • Favorable development of$21 million on surety business, primarily impacting the 2009 accident year. Case emergence and development for this accident year continues to be more favorable than anticipated in our prior review, as well as in our original pricing for the policies written covering this period. We had assumed higher claims frequency due to recession, however this did not materialize in our portfolio; • Adverse development of$40 million on errors and omissions coverage primarily affecting the 2007 and 2008 accident years. This development was due to increases on specific claims where new facts, including adverse legal verdicts, emerged since our last review; • Adverse development of$29 million in our environmental liability product line concentrated in the 2005 through 2007 accident years. There was adverse movement on specific large remediation cost cap policies observed in the 2011 calendar year, which prompted an increase in our estimate of ultimate loss and loss expenses under these insurance programs; and • Remaining adverse development of$25 million relates to other lines across a number of accident years, none of which was significant individually or in the aggregate.
• Net favorable development of
• Favorable development of$48 million in our property portfolios primarily affecting the 2009 and 2010 accident years as our assessment of ultimate losses, including catastrophe losses, developed favorably during calendar year 2011; and
• Favorable development of
Insurance - North American's runoff operations incurred net adverse prior period development of$102 million in ourWestchester and Brandywine run-off operations during 2011, which was the net result of favorable and adverse movements impacting accident years 2000 and prior, driven by the following principal changes: •Adverse development of$82 million related to the completion of the reserve review during 2011. The development primarily arose from case specific asbestos and environmental claims related to increased loss and defense cost payment activity. Further, we experienced increased paid loss and case reserve activity on our assumed reinsurance portfolio;
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•Adverse development of
•The remaining
Insurance - North American's active operations experienced net favorable prior period development of$239 million in 2010, resulting from several underlying favorable and adverse movements, driven by the following principal changes:
•Net favorable development of
•Favorable development of$105 million in our D&O and E&O portfolios following detailed claim and actuarial reviews of case activity in 2010. This development was the net of favorable movements primarily in the 2006 and prior accident years, partially offset by adverse movements in the 2007-2009 years; •Favorable development of$54 million on our national accounts portfolio. The favorable development was a function of two primary factors. First, this development related to our annual assessment in 2010 of multi-claimant events including industrial accidents. Consistent with prior years, we reviewed these potential exposures for accident year 2009, after the close of the accident year to allow for late reporting or identification of significant losses. Second, there was better than expected loss emergence reported in 2010 on the 2005 and 2006 accident years and greater weighting assigned to experienced-based methods;
•Favorable development of
•Adverse development of
•Adverse development of$30 million in our small and middle market guaranteed cost workers' compensation portfolios that was driven by an increasing trend in claims frequency and allocated claims expenses on accident years 2008 and subsequent; and •Favorable development of$15 million on other lines across a number of accident years, primarily following better than expected loss emergence, none of which was significant individually or in the aggregate.
•Net favorable development of
•Favorable development of
•Favorable development of$41 million in our crop/hail business associated with recording the most recent bordereaux for the 2009 and prior crop years. The$41 million reflects the net of improvement in the loss estimate ($86 million ) and a corresponding increase in profit share commission expense ($45 million ). Insurance - North American's runoff operations experienced net adverse prior period development of$132 million in 2010, which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements impacting accident years 2000 and prior, driven by the following principal changes: •Adverse development of$114 million in ourWestchester and Brandywine runoff operations. This development includes$89 million related to the completion of the reserve review during 2010 and is comprised primarily of adverse development for asbestos claims related to increased loss and defense cost payment activity on a limited number of accounts and adverse development for assumed reinsurance due to increased paid loss and case reserve activity in recent years, partially offset by increased distributions received from insolvent reinsurers and commutations. This also includes additional adverse development of$19 million for unallocated loss adjustment expenses due to runoff operating expenses paid during the current year; and
•Adverse development of
Insurance - North American active operations experienced net favorable prior period development of
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Insurance - North American runoff operations incurred net adverse prior period development of$88 million in 2009, representing 0.5 percent of the segment's beginning of period net unpaid loss and loss expense reserves.
Insurance - Overseas General
Insurance - Overseas General experienced net favorable prior period development of
• Net favorable development of
• Favorable development of$337 million in casualty (primary and excess) and financial lines for accident years 2007 and prior. We have recognized the impact of favorable loss emergence since the prior study and assigned increased weight to experience-based methods; and • Adverse development of$183 million in casualty (primary and excess) and financial lines for accident years 2008-2010 in response to claims emergence in 2011. First, the impact of notified large claims and a high level review of potential ultimate exposure from large claims across these lines led to a$140 million increase across these accident years. Second, the completion of a claims review related to the exposure from financial fraud and subprime claims led to another increase of$20 million . Finally, reserves were strengthened by$20 million in response to increasing frequency and severity trends within European primary casualty. • Net favorable development of$136 million on short-tail business, including property, marine, A&H, and energy lines across multiple geographical regions, and within both retail and wholesale operations, principally as a result of lower than expected loss emergence, principally on accident years 2008-2009.
Insurance - Overseas General experienced net favorable prior period development of
• Net favorable development of
• Favorable development of$241 million in casualty (primary and excess) and financial lines for accident years 2006 and prior that recognized both favorable loss emergence and a greater weight to experience-based methods as years mature; and •Adverse development of$82 million in casualty (primary and excess) and financial lines for accident years 2007-2009 principally arising from a claims review of financial crisis-related claims (adverse$57 million impact) and emergence of adverse frequency and severity trends within certain portfolios (adverse$24 million impact). •Net favorable development of$131 million on short-tail business, including property, marine, A&H, and energy lines across multiple geographical regions, and within both retail and wholesale operations, principally as a result of lower than expected loss emergence, principally on accident years 2007-2009. Insurance - Overseas General incurred net favorable prior period development of$255 million in 2009, representing 4.2 percent of the segment's beginning of period net unpaid loss and loss expense reserves.
Global Reinsurance
Global Reinsurance experienced net favorable prior period development of$71 million in 2011, which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements, driven by the following principal changes: •Net favorable development of$58 million on long-tail business, including net favorable prior period development of$79 million principally in treaty years 2007 and prior across a number of portfolios (professional liability, D&O, casualty, and medical malpractice). The lower loss estimates arose from a combination of favorable paid and incurred loss trends and increased weighting to experience-based methods; and •Net favorable development of$13 million on short-tail business, including net favorable prior period development of$34 million principally in treaty years 2009 and prior across property lines, including property catastrophe, trade credit and surety principally as a result of lower than anticipated loss emergence. Global Reinsurance experienced net favorable prior period development of$106 million in 2010, which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements, driven by the following principal changes: 66
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•Net favorable development of$72 million on long-tail business, including net favorable prior period development of$96 million principally in treaty years 2003-2006 across a number of portfolios (professional liability, D&O, casualty, and medical malpractice). The lower loss estimates arose from a combination of favorable incurred loss trends and increased weighting to experience-based methods. •Net favorable development of$34 million on short-tail business, primarily in treaty years 2003-2008 across property lines, including property catastrophe, trade credit and surety principally as a result of lower than anticipated loss emergence. Global Reinsurance experienced net favorable prior period development of$142 million in 2009, representing 5.6 percent of the segment's beginning of period net unpaid loss and loss expense reserves.
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Segment Operating Results - Years Ended
The discussions that follow include tables that show our segment operating results for the years ended
We operate through the following business segments: Insurance -
Insurance - North American The Insurance - North American segment comprises our operations in the U.S.,Canada , andBermuda . This segment includes our retail divisionsACE USA (including ACE Canada),ACE Commercial Risk Services , andACE Private Risk Services ; our wholesale and specialty divisions ACE Westchester, ACE Agriculture and ACE Bermuda; and various run-off operations, includingBrandywine Holdings Corporation (Brandywine). % Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, except 2011 vs. 2010 vs. for percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Net premiums written $ 6,851 $ 5,797 $ 5,641 18% 3% Net premiums earned 6,911 5,651 5,684 22% (1)% Losses and loss expenses 5,276 3,918 4,013 35% (2)% Policy acquisition costs 613 625 517 (2)% 21% Administrative expenses 592 561 572 6% (2)% Underwriting income 430 547 582 (21)% (6)% Net investment income 1,170 1,138 1,094 3% 4% Net realized gains (losses) 34 417 10 (92)% NM Interest expense 15 9 1 67% NM Other (income) expense 5 (22 ) 36 NM NM Income tax expense 394 436 384 (10)% 14% Net income $ 1,220 $ 1,679 $ 1,265 (27)% 33% Loss and loss expense ratio 76.3% 69.3% 70.6% Policy acquisition cost ratio 8.9% 11.1%
9.1%
Administrative expense ratio 8.6% 9.9% 10.1% Combined ratio 93.8% 90.3% 89.8% Insurance - North American reported an increase in net premiums written in 2011, compared with 2010. Our wholesale and specialty division reported significantly higher premiums in 2011, compared with 2010, specifically in Agriculture due to the acquisition of Rain and Hail inDecember 2010 . This increase was partially offset by lower wholesale casualty production due to competitive market conditions and our adherence to underwriting standards. Our retail division also reported less net premiums written in 2011, compared with 2010, due to lower production in many of our retail property and casualty lines reflecting competitive market conditions and our adherence to underwriting standards. In addition, our retail division wrote less assumed loss portfolio transfer business in 2011, compared with 2010. These decreases were partially offset by growth in targeted classes, including A&H and certain property and professional lines. Also, our personal lines business reported higher written premiums in 2011, compared with 2010, reflecting growth in homeowners and automobile business, as well as other 67
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specialty offerings. Insurance - North American reported an increase in net premiums written in 2010, compared with 2009. For 2010, compared with 2009, the retail division reported growth in A&H, worker's compensation, commercial risk and new program business as well as increased premium retention in professional risk lines and favorable foreign exchange impact on Canadian business. The retail division also benefited from one-time premium-related adjustments totaling$80 million in the fourth quarter of 2010. Our personal lines business reported growth in homeowners and auto insurance as well as specialty offerings in 2010. These increases were partially offset by less new business and renewed policies across several lines of business, reflecting a decline in value of exposures, competitive market conditions, and our adherence to underwriting discipline. These factors were especially evident in our national accounts, as well as aerospace and energy lines of business. Growth in the retail division was also offset by a decline in assumed loss portfolio business. Net premiums written in our wholesale division increased in 2010, compared with 2009, primarily due to higher premium retention and increases in professional lines business. These increases were partially offset by lower crop production primarily reflecting the impact of crop settlements. In 2010, we received the results from the previous crop reinsurance year which required us to make adjustments to previously estimated premiums, losses and loss expenses, and profit share commission. Insurance - North American reported an increase in net premiums earned in 2011, compared with 2010. This increase was primarily attributable to higher wholesale and specialty premiums in ACE Agriculture due to the acquisition of Rain and Hail inDecember 2010 . Our retail businesses generated lower net earned premiums mainly in the property and casualty risk lines of business reflecting lower writings in these lines due to adherence to underwriting standards and less premiums associated with assumed loss portfolio transfer business in 2011, compared with 2010. These decreases were partially offset by growth in certain lines of business within our professional risk, A&H and program operations. Net premiums earned for the personal lines business increased in 2011, compared with 2010, due to continued expansion of theACE Private Risk Services product offerings. Insurance-North American reported a decline in net premiums earned in 2010, compared with 2009. This decline was attributable to less assumed loss portfolio transfer business, lower risk management business in the retail division, lower professional and casualty business and less favorable crop settlements in ACE Agriculture. These decreases were partially offset by increases in worker's compensation, professional risk, A&H, and personal lines business, favorable foreign exchange impact, a one-time premium-related adjustment totaling$80 million and new program business.
The following two tables provide a line of business breakdown of Insurance - North American's net premiums earned for the periods indicated:
% Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, except 2011 vs. 2010 vs. for percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Property and all other $ 1,232 $ 1,180 $ 1,137 4% 4% Agriculture 1,942 398 553 NM (28)% Casualty 3,380 3,777 3,734 (11)% 1% Personal accident (A&H) 357 296 260 21% 14% Net premiums earned $ 6,911 $ 5,651 $ 5,684 22% (1)% 2011 2010 2009 % of Total % of Total % of Total Property and all other 18% 21% 20% Agriculture 28% 7% 10% Casualty 49% 67% 66% Personal accident (A&H) 5% 5% 4% Net premiums earned 100% 100% 100% 68
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The following table shows the impact of catastrophe losses and related reinstatement premiums, and prior period development on our loss and loss expense ratio for the periods indicated:
2011 2010 2009 Loss and loss expense ratio, as reported 76.3% 69.3% 70.6%
Catastrophe losses and related reinstatement premiums (5.1)% (2.6)%
(1.0)% Prior period development 2.9% 2.7% 3.1% Large assumed loss portfolio transfers 0.0% (0.5)% (1.2)% Loss and loss expense ratio, adjusted 74.1% 68.9% 71.5% Insurance - North American's net catastrophe losses, excluding reinstatement premiums, were$347 million in 2011, compared with$143 million in 2010 and$58 million in 2009. Catastrophe losses in 2011 were related to severe weather-related events in the U.S., including Hurricane Irene and flooding, as well as exposure from theJapan earthquake and the flooding inThailand . Catastrophe losses in 2010 were primarily related to severe weather-related events in the U.S. and earthquakes inHaiti andChile . Catastrophe losses in 2009 were related to several weather-related events in the U.S. and an earthquake in Asia. Insurance - North American experienced net favorable prior period development of$195 million in 2011 compared with net favorable prior period development of$107 million and$179 million in 2010 and 2009, respectively. Refer to "PriorPeriod Development " for more information. The adjusted loss and loss expense ratio increased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to the increase in Agriculture, partially offset by lower assumed loss portfolio business, both of which are written at a higher loss ratio than our other types of business. The adjusted loss and loss expense ratio decreased in 2010, compared with 2009, primarily due to the impact of lower crop settlements in Agriculture, non-recurring premium adjustments in 2010 and the reduction in assumed loss portfolio business. Insurance - North American's policy acquisition cost ratio decreased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily reflecting a shift in mix of business towards lower acquisition cost lines of business, primarily Agriculture. Partially offsetting the growth in the low expense ratio business was targeted growth in several higher acquisition ratio lines of business, including personal and professional lines, as well as commercial risk program business. The policy acquisition cost ratio increased in 2010, compared with 2009, due to a shift in the mix of business towards higher commission specialty casualty business, professional and personal lines, and a decline in assumed loss portfolio business which generates minimal expense. Insurance - North American's administrative expense ratio decreased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to the growth of low expense ratio business generated by Agriculture. This decrease was partially offset by lower net results generated by our third party claims administration business,ESIS , of$25 million in 2011, compared with net results of$85 million in 2010, whenESIS was engaged in the administration role for claims generated by the Deepwater Horizon oil leak catastrophe. The administrative expense ratio decreased in 2010, compared with 2009, primarily due to higher net results generated byESIS .ESIS net results were$26 million in 2009. 69
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Insurance - Overseas General
The Insurance - Overseas General segment comprisesACE International , our retail business serving territories outside the U.S.,Bermuda , andCanada ; the international A&H and life business ofCombined Insurance ; and the wholesale insurance business ofACE Global Markets , ourLondon -based excess and surplus lines business that includes Lloyd's Syndicate 2488. The reinsurance operation ofACE Global Markets is included in the Global Reinsurance segment. % Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, except for 2011 vs. 2010 vs. percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Net premiums written $ 5,756 $ 5,280 $ 5,145 9% 3% Net premiums earned 5,737 5,240 5,147 9% 2% Losses and loss expenses 3,073 2,647 2,597 16% 2% Policy benefits - 4 4 NM 0% Policy acquisition costs 1,393 1,251 1,202 11% 4% Administrative expenses 945 840 783 13% 7% Underwriting income 326 498 561 (35)% (11)% Net investment income 548 475 479 15% (1)% Net realized gains (losses) 33 123 (20 ) (73)% NM Interest expense 5 1 - NM NM Other (income) expense - (13 ) 20 NM NM Income tax expense 169 173 186 (2)% (7)% Net income $ 733 $ 935 $ 814 (22)% 15% Loss and loss expense ratio 53.6% 50.6% 50.5% Policy acquisition cost ratio 24.2% 23.9%
23.3%
Administrative expense ratio 16.5% 16.0% 15.2% Combined ratio 94.3% 90.5% 89.0% Insurance - Overseas General conducts business internationally and in most major foreign currencies. The following table summarizes by major product line the approximate effect of changes in foreign currency exchange rates on the growth of net premiums written and earned for the periods indicated: 2011 2010 2009 P&C A&H Total Total Total Net premiums written: Growth in original currency 4.1% 5.2% 4.5% 0.2% 2.9% Foreign exchange effect 3.7% 5.7% 4.5% 2.4% (6.4)% Growth as reported in U.S. dollars 7.8% 10.9% 9.0% 2.6% (3.5)% Net premiums earned: Growth in original currency 3.9% 5.1% 4.3% (0.4)% 3.2% Foreign exchange effect 4.5% 6.1% 5.2% 2.2% (6.8)% Growth as reported in U.S. dollars 8.4% 11.2% 9.5% 1.8% (3.6)% Insurance - Overseas General's net premiums written increased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to growth in our international retail operations and the acquisition of Jerneh Insurance Berhad inDecember 2010 , and favorable foreign exchange, partially offset by reinstatement premiums of approximately$42 million expensed in connection with the first quarter 2011 catastrophe activity. Our international retail businesses reported growth in all regions but primarily inAsia Pacific andLatin America . In addition, A&H and personal lines business experienced growth due to an increase in retention as well new business in all regions. OurLondon wholesale business unit reported declines of 3 percent, mainly due to results in Financial Lines, where business is lapsing due to inadequate pricing. Insurance - Overseas General's net premiums written increased in 2010, compared with 2009, primarily due to growth in our international retail operations and favorable foreign exchange impact,
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partially offset by reinstatement premiums of approximately$33 million expensed in connection with the first quarter 2010 catastrophe activity. Our growth was mainly driven by new business inAsia Pacific andLatin America . In 2010, compared with 2009, ourLondon wholesale business unit reported lower production in most product lines due to declinations of business where we did not believe rates were acceptable relative to risk. Insurance - Overseas General's net premiums earned increased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to the growth in the international retail operations and favorable foreign exchange impact, partially offset by lower wholesale writings and the reinstatement premiums expensed in connection with first quarter 2011 catastrophe activity. On a constant dollar basis, net premiums earned increased due to growth in P&C and A&H production in our international retail operations. OurLondon wholesale operations reported a decline in net premiums earned due to lower production over the last year. Insurance - Overseas General's net premiums earned increased in 2010, compared with 2009, primarily due to the growth in our P&C and A&H production and favorable foreign exchange impact, partially offset by lower wholesale writings and reinstatement premiums expensed in connection with first quarter 2010 catastrophe activity.
The following two tables provide a line of business and regional breakdown of Insurance - Overseas General's net premiums earned for the periods indicated:
% Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, except 2011 vs. 2010 vs. for percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Line of Business Property and all other $ 2,080 $ 1,800 $ 1,787 16% 1% Casualty 1,415 1,424 1,420 (1)% 0% Personal accident (A&H) 2,242 2,016 1,940 11% 4% Net premiums earned $ 5,737 $ 5,240 $ 5,147 9% 2% Region Europe $ 2,317 $ 2,284 $ 2,348 1% (3)% Asia Pacific 1,115 847 754 32% 12% Far East 519 465 451 12% 3% Latin America 1,071 905 772 18% 17% 5,022 4,501 4,325 12% 4% ACE Global Markets 715 739 822 (3)% (10)% Net premiums earned $ 5,737 $ 5,240 $ 5,147 9% 2% 2011 2010 2009 % of % of % of Total Total Total Line of Business Property and all other 36% 34% 34% Casualty 25% 27% 28% Personal accident (A&H) 39% 39% 38% Net premiums earned 100% 100% 100% Region Europe 40% 44% 45% Asia Pacific 20% 16% 15% Far East 9% 9% 9% Latin America 19% 17% 15% 88% 86% 84% ACE Global Markets 12% 14% 16% Net premiums earned 100% 100% 100% 71
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The following table shows the impact of catastrophe losses and related reinstatement premiums and prior period development on our loss and loss expense ratio for the periods indicated:
2011 2010 2009 Loss and loss expense ratio, as reported 53.6% 50.6% 50.5%
Catastrophe losses and related reinstatement premiums (6.1)% (2.8)%
(1.0)% Prior period development 5.0% 5.5% 5.0% Loss and loss expense ratio, adjusted 52.5% 53.3% 54.5% Net catastrophe losses, excluding reinstatement premiums, were$329 million in 2011, compared with$132 million in 2010 and$51 million in 2009, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2011 included flooding inThailand , earthquakes inNew Zealand andJapan and storms in the U.S. andAustralia . Catastrophe losses in 2010 were primarily related to earthquakes inChile andMexico , and storms inAustralia andEurope . Catastrophe losses in 2009 were primarily related to floods and windstorms inEurope . Insurance - Overseas General experienced net favorable prior period development of$290 million ,$290 million and$255 million in 2011, 2010 and 2009, respectively. Refer to "PriorPeriod Development " for more information. Insurance - Overseas General's policy acquisition cost ratio increased in 2011, compared with 2010, as well as in 2010, compared with 2009, primarily due to the impact of catastrophe-related reinstatement premiums expensed and changes in mix of business. Insurance - Overseas General's administrative expense ratio increased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to the impact of reinstatement premiums expensed, and reduced wholesale net earned premiums. Insurance - Overseas General's administrative expense ratio increased in 2010, compared with 2009, primarily due to the inclusion ofCombined Insurance for the full year and the impact of reinstatement premiums.
Global Reinsurance
The Global Reinsurance segment represents our reinsurance operations comprising ACE Tempest Re Bermuda,ACE Tempest Re USA ,ACE Tempest Re International , and ACE Tempest Re Canada. Global Reinsurance markets its reinsurance products worldwide under the ACE Tempest Re brand name and provides a broad range of coverage to a diverse array of primary P&C companies. % Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, except 2011 vs. 2010 vs. for percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Net premiums written $ 979 $ 1,075 $ 1,038 (9)% 4% Net premiums earned 1,003 1,071 979 (6)% 9% Losses and loss expenses 621 518 330 20% 57% Policy acquisition costs 185 204 195 (9)% 5% Administrative expenses 52 55 55 (5)% 0% Underwriting income 145 294 399 (51)% (26)% Net investment income 287 288 278 (0)% 4% Net realized gains (losses) (50 ) 93 (17 ) NM NM Interest expense 2 - - NM NM Other (income) expense (1 ) (23 ) 2 96% NM Income tax expense 30 42 46 (29)% (9)% Net income $ 351 $ 656 $ 612 (46)% 7% Loss and loss expense ratio 62.0% 48.4% 33.7% Policy acquisition cost ratio 18.4% 19.0%
19.9%
Administrative expense ratio 5.2% 5.1% 5.6% Combined ratio 85.6% 72.5% 59.2% 72
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Global Reinsurance reported a decrease in net premiums written in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to competitive market conditions and lower exposures, partially offset by reductions in retrocessions. Net premiums written increased in 2010, compared with 2009, primarily due to a significant new workers' compensation treaty recorded during 2010 in our U.S. operation, partially offset by generally competitive conditions across most of Global Reinsurance's product lines and regions of operations. Global Reinsurance's net premiums earned decreased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to 2011 decreases in production and exposures. Global Reinsurance's net premiums earned increased in 2010, compared with 2009 due to the new workers' compensation business and higher casualty reinsurance production in our U.S. operations.
The following tables provide a line of business breakdown of Global Reinsurance's net premiums earned for the periods indicated:
% Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, except for 2011 vs. 2010 vs. percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Property and all other $ 177 $ 239 $ 262 (26 )% (9 )% Casualty 545 551 433 (1 )% 27 % Property catastrophe 281 281 284 0 % (1 )% Net premiums earned $ 1,003 $ 1,071 $ 979 (6 )% 9 % 2011 2010 2009 % of Total % of Total % of Total Property and all other 18 % 22 % 27 % Casualty 54 % 51 % 44 % Property catastrophe 28 % 27 % 29 % Net premiums earned 100 % 100 % 100 %
The following table shows the impact of catastrophe losses and related reinstatement premiums and prior period development on our loss and loss expense ratio for the periods indicated:
2011 2010 2009 Loss and loss expense ratio, as reported 62.0 % 48.4 % 33.7 % Catastrophe losses and related reinstatement premiums (18.0) % (8.4) % (2.8) % Prior period development 7.7 % 10.0 % 14.5 % Loss and loss expense ratio, adjusted 51.7 % 50.0 % 45.4 % Global Reinsurance recorded net catastrophe losses, excluding reinstatement premiums, of$183 million in 2011, compared with net catastrophe losses of$91 million and$28 million in 2010 and 2009, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2011 were primarily related to earthquakes inJapan andNew Zealand . Catastrophe losses in 2010 were primarily related to storms inAustralia and earthquakes inChile andNew Zealand . Catastrophe losses in 2009 were primarily related to various Canadian storms and Hurricane Klaus. Global Reinsurance experienced net favorable prior period development of$71 million (which is net of$13 million of unfavorable premium adjustments to loss sensitive treaties),$106 million and$142 million in 2011, 2010, and 2009, respectively. Refer to "PriorPeriod Development " for additional information. Global Reinsurance's adjusted loss and loss expense ratio increased in 2011, compared with 2010, due to a full year of earnings on a workers' compensation treaty and a medical malpractice loss portfolio transfer (LPT), both with high loss ratios. The adjusted loss and loss expense ratio increased in 2010, compared with 2009 due to six months of earnings on the new workers' compensation treaty with a high loss ratio, reserve increases in U.S. property and U.S. auto lines of business and an increase in casualty business written in 2010. Global Reinsurance's policy acquisition costs ratio decreased in 2011, compared with 2010, as a result of lower commission in our U.S. operations, primarily due to additional earned premium from the workers' compensation treaty and the new medical malpractice LPT business, both of which did not generate acquisition costs, as well as the favorable impact of the change 73
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in the mix of business earned. These lower commissions were partially offset by reductions in catastrophe retrocession profit commissions. Global Reinsurance's policy acquisition cost ratio decreased in 2010, compared with 2009, as a result of lower commission in our U.S. operations, primarily due to the new workers' compensation treaty business which did not generate acquisition costs. The administrative expense ratio was flat in 2011, compared with 2010, as lower administrative expenses were offset by a decrease in net premiums earned. The administrative expenses were flat in 2010, compared with 2009, but the ratio decreased due to the increase in net premiums earned.
Life
The Life segment includes our international life operations (ACE Life), ACE Tempest Life Re (ACE Life Re), and the North American supplemental A&H and life business ofCombined Insurance . We assess the performance of our life business based on life underwriting income which includes net investment income and gains (losses) from separate account assets that do not qualify for separate account reporting under GAAP. % Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, except 2011 vs. 2010 vs. for percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Net premiums written $ 1,786 $ 1,556 $ 1,475 15% 5% Net premiums earned 1,736 1,542 1,430 13% 8% Losses and loss expenses 549 496 482 11% 3% Policy benefits 401 353 321 14% 10% Losses from separate account assets 36 - - NM NM Policy acquisition costs 255 257 216 (1)% 19% Administrative expenses 295 228 243 29% (6)% Net investment income 224 172 176 30% (2)% Life underwriting income 424 380 344 12% 10% Net realized gains (losses) (806) (192) (15) NM NM Interest expense 11 3 - NM NM Other (income) expense 18 20 2 (10)% NM Income tax expense 50 62 48 (19)% 29% Net income $ (461) $ 103 $ 279 NM (63)%
The following table provides a line of business breakdown of life net premiums written for the periods indicated:
% Change (in millions of U.S. dollars, except for 2011 vs. 2010 vs. percentages) 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 Life reinsurance $ 344 $ 358 $ 366 (4 )% (2 )% Life insurance 446 184 97 NM 90 % A&H 996 1,014 1,012 (2 )% 0 % Life net premiums written $ 1,786 $ 1,556 $ 1,475 15 % 5 % Life reinsurance net premiums written decreased in 2011, compared with 2010, because there is no new life reinsurance business currently being written. Life insurance net premiums written increased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to the acquisition of New York Life'sKorea operations andHong Kong operations. A&H net premiums written decreased in 2011, compared with 2010, due to the effects of the economy resulting in lower new business. Net realized gains (losses), which are excluded from life underwriting income, relate primarily to the change in the net fair value of reported GLB reinsurance liabilities and changes in the fair value of derivatives used to partially offset the risk in the variable annuity guarantee portfolio. During 2011, realized losses were associated with an increased value of GLB liabilities due to falling interest rates, falling international equity markets and the annual collection of premium. During 2010, realized losses were primarily associated with an increasing net fair value of reported GLB liabilities resulting substantially from the 74
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impact of lower interest rates. The 2010 realized loss was also impacted by a reduction in the value of hedge instruments and increasing GLB liabilities due to the annual collection of premium, offset by decreasing GLB liabilities due to rising equity markets and model enhancements. During 2009, realized losses were due to the combination of a reduction in the value of hedge instruments as well as modeling changes, which more than offset a decrease in the net fair value of reported GLB reinsurance liabilities and the gain from foreign exchange.
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Net Investment Income Years Ended December 31 (in millions of U.S. dollars) 2011 2010
2009
Fixed maturities $ 2,196 $ 2,071
Short-term investments 43 34 38 Equity securities 36 26 54 Other 62 44 48 Gross investment income 2,337 2,175
2,125
Investment expenses (95 ) (105 )
(94 )
Net investment income $ 2,242 $ 2,070 $ 2,031 Net investment income is influenced by a number of factors including the amounts and timing of inward and outward cash flows, the level of interest rates, and changes in overall asset allocation. Net investment income increased eight percent in 2011 compared with 2010 resulting from a higher overall average invested asset base from acquisitions and higher private equity fund distributions, partially offset by lower yields on new investments. Net investment income increased two percent in 2010 compared with 2009 resulting from positive operating cash flows and a higher average invested asset base, partially offset by lower yields on new investments and short-term securities.
The investment portfolio's average market yield on fixed maturities was 3.1 percent, 3.6 percent, and 4.3 percent at
The yield on short-term investments reflects the global nature of our insurance operations (1.5 percent - 2.0 percent yield). For example, yields on short-term investments inMalaysia ,China , andEcuador range from 3.1 percent to 4.7 percent. The yield on our equity securities portfolio is high relative to the yield on the S&P 500 Index because we classify our strategic emerging debt portfolio, which is a mutual fund, as equity (4.5 percent - 7.3 percent yield). The strategic emerging debt portfolio represents approximately 60 percent of our equity securities portfolio.
The following table shows the return on average invested assets:
Years Ended December 31 (in millions of U.S. dollars, except for percentages) 2011 2010 2009 Average invested assets $ 52,093 $ 48,044 $ 43,767 Net investment income $ 2,242 $ 2,070 $ 2,031 Return on average invested assets 4.3% 4.3% 4.6%
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Net Realized and Unrealized Gains (Losses)
We take a long-term view with our investment strategy, and our investment managers manage our investment portfolio to maximize total return within certain specific guidelines designed to minimize risk. The majority of our investment portfolio is available for sale and reported at fair value. Our held to maturity investment portfolio is reported at amortized cost. The effect of market movements on our available for sale investment portfolio impacts net income (through net realized gains (losses)) when securities are sold or when we record an Other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) charge in net income. For a discussion related to how we assess OTTI for all of our investments, including credit-related OTTI, and the related impact on net income, refer to Note 3 d) to the Consolidated Financial Statements. Additionally, net income is impacted through the reporting of changes in the fair value of derivatives, including financial futures, options, swaps, and GLB reinsurance. Changes 75
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in unrealized appreciation and depreciation on available for sale securities, which result from the revaluation of securities held, are reported as a separate component of accumulated other comprehensive income in shareholders' equity. The following tables present our pre-tax net realized and unrealized gains (losses), as well a breakdown of our OTTI and other net realized gains (losses) on investments: Year Ended December 31, 2011 Year Ended December 31, 2010 Net Net Net Net Realized Unrealized Realized Unrealized Gains Gains Net Gains Gains Net (in millions of U.S. dollars) (Losses) (Losses) Impact (Losses) (Losses) Impact Fixed maturities $ 164 $ 480 $ 644 $ 380 $ 973 $ 1,353 Fixed income derivatives (143 ) - (143 ) 58 - 58 Total fixed maturities 21 480 501 438 973 1,411 Public equity 9 (47 ) (38 ) 84 (44 ) 40 Other (25 ) 15 (10 ) 161 (92 ) 69 Subtotal 5 448 453 683 837 1,520 Derivatives Fair value adjustment on insurance derivatives (779 ) - (779 ) (28 ) - (28 ) S&P put option and futures (4 ) - (4 ) (150 ) - (150 ) Fair value adjustment on other derivatives (4 ) - (4 ) (19 ) - (19 ) Subtotal derivatives (787 ) - (787 ) (197 ) - (197 ) Foreign exchange gains (losses) (13 ) - (13 ) (54 ) - (54 ) Total gains (losses) $ (795 ) $ 448 $ (347 ) $ 432 $ 837 $ 1,269 Year Ended December 31, 2011 Year Ended December 31, 2010 Other Net Net Other Net Net Realized Realized Realized Realized Gains Gains Gains Gains (in millions of U.S. dollars) OTTI (Losses) (Losses) OTTI (Losses) (Losses) Fixed maturities $ (46 ) $ 210 $ 164 $ (46 ) $ 426 $ 380 Public equity (1 ) 10 9 - 84 84 Other (3 ) (22 ) (25 ) (13 ) 174 161 Total $ (50 ) $ 198 $ 148 $ (59 ) $ 684 $ 625 Our net realized gains (losses) for the year endedDecember 31, 2011 , included write-downs of$50 million as a result of an other-than-temporary decline in fair value of certain securities. This compares with write-downs of$59 million and$397 million in 2010 and 2009, respectively. Included in Other net realized gains (losses) in 2010 was a realized gain of$175 million related to the acquisition of Rain and Hail. Refer to Note 2 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information. AtDecember 31, 2011 , our investment portfolios held by U.S. legal entities include approximately$120 million of gross unrealized losses on fixed income investments. Our tax planning strategy related to these losses is based on our view that we will hold these fixed income investments until they recover their cost. As such, we have recognized a deferred tax asset of approximately$42 million related to these fixed income investments. This strategy allows us to recognize the associated deferred tax asset related to these fixed income investments as we do not believe these losses will ever be realized. We engage in a securities lending program which involves lending investments to other institutions for short periods of time. ACE invests the collateral received in securities of high credit quality and liquidity, with the objective of maintaining a stable principal balance. Certain investments purchased with the securities lending collateral declined in value resulting in an unrealized loss of$10 million atDecember 31, 2011 . The unrealized loss is attributable to fluctuations in market values of the underlying performing debt instruments held by the respective mutual funds, rather than default of a debt issuer. It is our view that the decline in value is temporary.
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Table of Contents -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Income and Expense Items
Years Ended December 31 (in millions of U.S. dollars) 2011 2010 2009 Losses from separate account assets $ 36 $ - $ -
Equity in net (income) loss of partially-owned entities (40 )
(81 ) 39 Federal excise and capital taxes 20 19 16 Amortization of intangible assets 29 9 11 Noncontrolling interest expense 2 14 3 Other(1) 26 23 16 Other (income) expense $ 73 $ (16 ) $ 85
(1) Included in Other are acquisition-related costs of
Other (income) expense includes losses from separate account assets that do not qualify for separate account reporting under GAAP (failed separate accounts). The offsetting movement in the separate account liabilities is included in Policy benefits. Equity in net (income) loss of partially-owned entities includes our share of net (income) loss related to investment funds, limited partnerships, partially-owned investment companies, and partially-owned insurance companies. Certain federal excise and capital taxes incurred as a result of capital management initiatives are included in Other (income) expense in the consolidated statements of operations. As these are considered capital transactions, they are excluded from underwriting results.
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Investments
Our investment portfolio is invested primarily in publicly traded, investment grade fixed income securities with an average credit quality of A/Aa as rated by the independent investment rating services Standard and Poor's (S&P)/ Moody's Investors Service (Moody's). This average credit quality rating reflects the recent downgrade by S&P of the credit rating of securities issued by the U.S. government. The portfolio is externally managed by independent, professional investment managers and is broadly diversified across geographies, sectors, and issuers. Our Other investments principally comprise direct investments, investment funds, and limited partnerships. We hold no collateralized debt obligations or collateralized loan obligations in our investment portfolio and we provide no credit default protection. We have long-standing global credit limits for our entire portfolio across the organization. Exposures are aggregated, monitored, and actively managed by our Global Credit Committee, comprised of senior executives, including our Chief Financial Officer, our Chief Risk Officer, our Chief Investment Officer, and our Treasurer. We also have well-established, strict contractual investment rules requiring managers to maintain highly diversified exposures to individual issuers and closely monitor investment manager compliance with portfolio guidelines. As part of our fixed income diversification strategy and because we intend to hold them to maturity, we transferred securities with a fair value of$6.8 billion in 2010 from Fixed maturities available for sale to Fixed maturities held to maturity. There were no transfers in 2011. The average duration of our fixed income securities, including the effect of options and swaps was 3.7 years at bothDecember 31, 2011 and 2010. We estimate that a 100 basis point (bps) increase in interest rates would reduce our book value by approximately$1.9 billion atDecember 31, 2011 . The following table shows the fair value and cost/amortized cost of our invested assets: December 31, 2011 December 31, 2010 Cost/ Cost/ Amortized Amortized (in millions of U.S. dollars) Fair Value Cost Fair Value Cost
Fixed maturities available for sale
8,605 8,447 9,461 9,501 Short-term investments 2,301 2,301 1,983 1,983 52,873 51,198 48,983 48,026 Equity securities 647 671 692 666 Other investments 2,314 2,112 1,692 1,511 Total investments $ 55,834 $ 53,981 $ 51,367 $ 50,203 77
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The fair value of our total investments increased
The following tables show the market value of our fixed maturities and short-term investments at
December 31, 2011 December 31, 2010 (in millions of U.S. dollars, except Percentage Percentage for percentages) Market Value of Total Market Value of Total Treasury $ 2,361 5% $ 2,075 4% Agency 1,725 3% 2,015 4% Corporate and asset-backed securities 17,030 32% 15,900 33% Mortgage-backed securities 13,237 25% 12,362 25% Municipal 2,888 6% 2,449 5% Non-U.S. 13,331 25% 12,199 25% Short-term investments 2,301 4% 1,983 4% Total $ 52,873 100% $ 48,983 100% AAA $ 9,284 18% $ 23,718 48% AA 20,562 39% 4,714 10% A 10,106 19% 8,482 17% BBB 6,152 12% 5,487 11% BB 3,755 7% 3,357 7% B 2,428 4% 2,393 5% Other 586 1% 832 2% Total $ 52,873 100% $ 48,983 100% As part of our overall investment strategy, we may invest in states, municipalities, and other political subdivisions fixed maturity securities (Municipal). We apply the same investment selection process described previously to our Municipal investments. The portfolio is highly diversified primarily in state general obligation bonds and essential service revenue bonds including education, and utilities (water, power, and sewers). As ofDecember 31, 2011 , one state, including political subdivisions and other municipal issuers within the state, represented approximately 20 percent of our Municipal investments. A majority of the single state exposure represents special revenue bonds. Over 71 percent of our Municipal investments carry an S&P rating of AA- or better and none carry fair values that reflect a significantly different risk compared to those ratings. These Municipal investments are split 38 percent and 62 percent between general obligation and special revenue bonds, respectively. Our exposure to the Euro results primarily fromACE European Group which is headquartered inLondon and offers a broad range of coverages throughout theEuropean Union , Central, andEastern Europe . ACE primarily invests in Euro denominated investments to support its local currency insurance obligations and required capital levels. ACE's local currency investment portfolios have strict contractual investment guidelines requiring managers to maintain a high quality and diversified portfolio to both sector and individual issuers. Investment portfolios are monitored daily to ensure investment manager compliance with portfolio guidelines. Our non-U.S. investment grade fixed income portfolios are currency-matched with the insurance liabilities of our non-U.S. operations. We have 80 percent of our non-U.S. fixed income portfolio denominated in G7 currencies. The average credit quality of our non-U.S. fixed income securities is AA and 54 percent of our holdings are rated AAA or guaranteed by governments or quasi-government agencies. Within the context of these investment portfolios, our government and corporate bond holdings are highly diversified across industries and geographies. Issuer limits are based on credit rating (AA-two percent, A-one percent, BBB-0.5 percent of the total portfolio) and are monitored on a daily basis by ACE via an internal compliance system. Because of this investment approach we do not have a direct exposure to troubled sovereign borrowers inEurope . We manage our indirect exposure using the same credit rating based investment approach. Accordingly, we do not believe our indirect exposure is material. 78
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The table below summarizes the market value and amortized cost of our Non-U.S. fixed income portfolio by country/sovereign for Non-U.S. government securities atDecember 31, 2011 : (in millions of U.S. dollars) Market Value Amortized Cost United Kingdom $ 1,161 $ 1,113 Canada 912 877 Republic of Korea 448 426 Japan 398 397 Germany 344 333 Province of Ontario 227 216 Federative Republic of Brazil 190 185 France 152 151 Province of Quebec 151 141 Swiss Confederation 141 134 People's Republic of China 129 126 Kingdom of Thailand 126 121 Federation of Malaysia 125 124 State of Queensland 114 109 Commonwealth of Australia 107 98 United Mexican States 91 86 State of New South Wales 77 73 Taiwan 54 52 State of Victoria 54 51 Socialist Republic of Vietnam 39 39 State of Qatar 38 37 Province of Manitoba 36 34 Republic of Austria 36 35 Russian Federation 36 35 Dominion of New Zealand 36 35 Other Non-U.S. Government(1) 509 491 Non-U.S. Government Securities 5,731 5,519 Eurozone Non-U.S. Corporate (excluding United Kingdom)(2) 2,347 2,339 Other Non-U.S. Corporate 5,253 5,102 Total $ 13,331 $ 12,960
(1) Includes investments in
(2) Refer to the following table for further detail on Eurozone Non-U.S Corporate securities. Our gross and net Eurozone Non-U.S. Corporate securities exposure is the same.
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The table below summarizes the market value and amortized cost of our Eurozone fixed income portfolio (excludingUnited Kingdom ) by industry atDecember 31, 2011 : Market Value by Industry Amortized Cost (in millions of U.S. dollars) Bank Financial
Industrial Utility Total Netherlands $ 202 $ 129 $ 239 $ 130 $ 700 $ 684 France 126 31 113 142 412 421 Germany 292 9 68 7 376 366 Luxembourg 27 10 214 88 339 345 Euro Supranational 197 - - - 197 193 Spain 52 4 55 6 117 120 Ireland 20 - 75 19 114 113 Italy 26 1 12 2 41 46 Austria 20 - 4 - 24 24 Finland 7 - 3 3 13 13 Belgium - - 12 1 13 12 Portugal - - 1 - 1 2
$ 796 $ 398 $ 2,347 $ 2,339 The table below summarizes the market value and amortized cost of the top 10 Eurozone bank exposures within our Eurozone fixed income portfolio (excludingUnited Kingdom ) atDecember 31, 2011 : (in millions of U.S. dollars) Market Value Amortized Cost KFW $ 184 $ 180 European Investment Bank 178 175 Rabobank Nederland NV 99 98 Deutsche Bank AG 47 46 Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten 34 34 Credit Agricole Groupe 31 31 BNP Paribas SA 29 30 Hypo Real Estate Holding AG 25 25 Nederlandse Waterschapsbank NV 24 24 ABN AMRO Group NV 24 24
The table below summarizes the market value and amortized cost of the top 10 Eurozone corporate exposures within our Eurozone fixed income portfolio (excluding
(in millions of U.S. dollars) Market Value Amortized Cost EDF SA $ 76 $ 80 ING Groep NV 74 77 Deutsche Telekom AG 70 64 Royal Dutch Shell PLC 65 60 Intelsat SA 52 51 Telefonica SA 46 46 Telecom Italia SpA 43 45 Gazprom OAO 40 39 Liberty Global Inc 39 37 ArcelorMittal 36 37 80
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The table below summarizes our largest exposures to corporate bonds by market value at
(in millions of U.S. dollars) Market Value General Electric Co $ 429 JP Morgan Chase & Co 428 Citigroup Inc 345 The Goldman Sachs Group Inc 315 Bank of America Corp 301 Verizon Communications Inc 289 Morgan Stanley 277 AT&T INC 241 Wells Fargo & Co 200 HSBC Holdings Plc 194 Lloyds Banking Group Plc 172 Comcast Corp 170 Kraft Foods Inc 165 Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc 156 Time Warner Cable Inc 140 ConocoPhillips 131 BP Plc 121 Credit Suisse Group 121 Pfizer Inc 118 American Express Co 117 Dominion Resources Inc/VA 115 Philip Morris International Inc 111 Anheuser-Busch InBev NV 111 Enterprise Products Partners LP 108 UBS AG 107
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Mortgage-backed securities
Additional details on the mortgage-backed component of our investment portfolio at
Mortgage-backed securities Market Value S&P Credit Rating BB and (in millions of U.S. dollars) AAA AA A BBB below Total Mortgage-backed securities Agency residential mortgage-backed (RMBS) $ - $ 11,118 $ - $ - $ - $ 11,118 Non-agency RMBS 201 31 25 18 520 795 Commercial mortgage-backed 1,286 22 10 6 - 1,324 Total mortgage-backed securities $ 1,487 $ 11,171 $ 35 $ 24 $ 520 $ 13,237 81
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Table of Contents Mortgage-backed securities Amortized Cost S&P Credit Rating BB and (in millions of U.S. dollars) AAA AA A BBB below Total Mortgage-backed securities Agency RMBS $ - $ 10,705 $ - $ - $ - $ 10,705 Non-agency RMBS 210 33 28 20 679 970 Commercial mortgage-backed 1,219 19 9 6 - 1,253 Total mortgage-backed securities $ 1,429 $ 10,757 $ 37 $ 26 $ 679 $ 12,928 Our mortgage-backed securities are rated predominantly AA and comprise approximately 25 percent of our fixed income portfolio. This compares with a 34 percent mortgage-backed weighting in representative indices of the U.S. fixed income market at the end of 2011. The minimum rating for initial purchases of mortgage-backed securities is AA for agency mortgages and AAA for non-agency mortgages. Agency RMBS represent securities which have been issued by Federal agencies (Government National Mortgage Association , Federal National Mortgage Association, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) with implied or explicit government guarantees. These represent 93 percent of our total RMBS portfolio. Our non-agency RMBS are backed primarily by prime collateral and are broadly diversified in over 129,000 loans. This portfolio's loan-to-value ratio is approximately 68 percent with an average Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) score of 730. With this conservative loan-to-value ratio and subordinated collateral of seven percent, the cumulative 5-year foreclosure rate would have to rise to 12 percent from current levels before principal is impaired. The current foreclosure rate of our non-agency RMBS portfolio is nine percent. Our commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are rated predominantly AAA, broadly diversified with over 14,000 loans with 60 percent of the portfolio issued before 2006 and 27 percent issued after 2009. The average loan-to-value ratio is approximately 65 percent with a debt service coverage ratio in excess of 1.7 and weighted-average subordinated collateral of 33 percent. The cumulative foreclosure rate would have to rise to 43 percent before principal is impaired. The foreclosure rate for our CMBS portfolio at the end of 2011 was approximately 2.7 percent.
Below-investment grade corporate fixed income portfolio
Below-investment grade securities have different characteristics than investment grade corporate debt securities. Risk of loss from default by the borrower is greater with below-investment grade securities. Below-investment grade securities are generally unsecured and are often subordinated to other creditors of the issuer. Also, issuers of below-investment grade securities usually have higher levels of debt and are more sensitive to adverse economic conditions, such as recession or increasing interest rates, than are investment grade issuers. AtDecember 31, 2011 , our fixed income investment portfolio included below-investment grade and non-rated securities which, in total, comprised approximately 12 percent of our fixed income portfolio. Our below-investment grade and non-rated portfolio includes over 900 issuers, with the greatest single exposure being$81 million . We manage high yield bonds as a distinct and separate asset class from investment grade bonds. The allocation to high yield bonds is explicitly set by internal management and is targeted to securities in the upper tier of credit quality (BB/B). Our minimum rating for initial purchase is BB/B. Six external investment managers are responsible for high yield security selection and portfolio construction. Our high yield managers have a conservative approach to credit selection and very low historical default experience. Holdings are highly diversified across industries and subject to a 1.5 percent issuer limit as a percentage of high yield allocation. We monitor position limits daily through an internal compliance system. Derivative and structured securities (e.g. credit default swaps and collateralized loan obligations) are not permitted in the high-yield portfolio. 82
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Table of Contents -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reinsurance recoverable on ceded reinsurance
The following table shows a composition of our reinsurance recoverable for the periods indicated: (in millions of U.S. dollars) 2011 2010
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and loss expenses, net of a provision for uncollectible reinsurance
$ 11,602
787 722
Net reinsurance recoverable on losses and loss expenses
$ 12,871 Reinsurance recoverable on policy benefits $ 249 $ 281 We evaluate the financial condition of our reinsurers and potential reinsurers on a regular basis and also monitor concentrations of credit risk with reinsurers. The provision for uncollectible reinsurance is required principally due to the failure of reinsurers to indemnify us, primarily because of disputes under reinsurance contracts and insolvencies. The provision for uncollectible reinsurance is based on a default analysis applied to gross reinsurance recoverables, net of approximately$2.8 billion of collateral. The decrease in net reinsurance recoverable on losses and loss expenses was primarily due to favorable prior period development on ceded reserves and cash collections on our run-off stop loss covers.
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Asbestos and environmental (A&E) and other run-off liabilities
Included in ACE's liabilities for losses and loss expenses are amounts for A&E (A&E liabilities). The A&E liabilities principally relate to claims arising from bodily-injury claims related to asbestos products and remediation costs associated with hazardous waste sites. The estimation of ACE's A&E liabilities is particularly sensitive to future changes in the legal, social, and economic environment. ACE has not assumed any such future changes in setting the value of our A&E reserves, which include provisions for both reported and IBNR claims. Refer to Note 7 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, under Item 8, for more information. Reserving considerations For asbestos, ACE faces claims relating to policies issued to manufacturers, distributors, installers, and other parties in the chain of commerce for asbestos and products containing asbestos. Claims can be filed by individual claimants or groups of claimants with the potential for hundreds of individual claimants at one time. Claimants will generally allege damages across an extended time period which may coincide with multiple policies for a single insured.
Environmental claims present exposure for remediation and defense costs associated with the contamination of property as a result of pollution. It is common, especially for larger defendants, to be named as a potentially responsible party at multiple sites.
The table below summarizes count information for asbestos and environmental claims for the years endedDecember 31, 2011 and 2010, for direct policies only: 2011 2010 Asbestos (by causative agent) Open at the beginning of year 1,025 1,023 Newly reported 65 66 Closed or otherwise disposed 30 64 Open at end of year 1,060 1,025 Environmental (by site) Open at the beginning of year 3,332 3,371 Newly reported 129 133 Closed or otherwise disposed 48 172 Open at end of year 3,413 3,332 Closed or otherwise disposed claims were significantly lower in 2011, compared with 2010, due to a review in the prior year of inactive files that revealed that payment was no longer sought on the files; therefore, the files were closed. 83
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The following table shows our gross and net survival ratios for our A&E loss reserves and allocated loss adjustment expense (ALAE) reserves atDecember 31, 2011 and 2010: 2011 Survival Ratios 2010 Survival Ratios 3 Year 1 Year 3 Year 1 Year Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Asbestos 5.9 5.9 6.3 5.1 6.4 9.0 6.6 8.4 Environmental 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.4 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.8 Total 5.4 5.1 5.5 4.3 5.8 7.4 6.2 7.3 The net ratios reflect third party reinsurance other than the aggregate excess reinsurance provided under the NICO contracts. These survival ratios are calculated by dividing the asbestos or environmental loss and ALAE reserves by the average asbestos or environmental loss and ALAE payments for the three most recent calendar years (3 year survival ratio), and by asbestos or environmental loss and ALAE payments in 2011 (1 year survival ratio). The survival ratios provide only a very rough depiction of reserves and are significantly impacted by a number of factors such as aggressive settlement practices, variations in gross to ceded relationships within the asbestos or environmental claims, and levels of coverage provided. We, therefore, urge caution in using these very simplistic ratios to gauge reserve adequacy and note that the 1 year survival ratios, particularly, are likely to move considerably from year to year for the reasons just described.
The 1 year net survival ratio decreased in 2011, compared with 2010, primarily due to higher net asbestos and environmental payments in 2011.
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Catastrophe management
We actively monitor our catastrophe risk accumulation around the world. The following modeled loss information reflects our in-force portfolio at
The table below shows our modeled annual aggregate pre-tax probable maximum loss (PML), net of reinsurance, for 100-year and 250-year return periods for U.S. hurricanes andCalifornia earthquakes atDecember 31, 2011 , andDecember 31, 2010 . The table also shows ACE's corresponding share of pre-tax industry losses for each of the return periods for U.S. hurricanes andCalifornia earthquakes atDecember 31, 2011 . For example, according to the model, for the 1-in-100 return period scenario, there is a one percent chance that our losses incurred in any year from U.S. hurricanes could be in excess of$1.8 billion (or seven percent of our total shareholders' equity atDecember 31, 2011 ). We estimate that at such hypothetical loss levels, ACE's share of aggregate industry losses would be approximately one percent. U.S. Hurricanes
California Earthquakes
December 31 ,December 31 ,December 31 ,December 31, 2011 2010 2011 2010 % of Total % of Total Modeled Annual Shareholders' % of Shareholders' % of Aggregate Net PML ACE Equity Industry ACE ACE
Equity Industry ACE (in millions of U.S. dollars, except for percentages) 1-in-100$ 1,812 7% 1.0% $ 1,182$ 869 4% 2.2% $ 798 1-in-250$ 2,385 10% 0.9% $ 1,570$ 1,065 4% 1.7% $ 912 The modeling estimates of both ACE and industry loss levels are inherently uncertain owing to key assumptions. First, while the use of third-party catastrophe modeling packages to simulate potential hurricane and earthquake losses is prevalent within the insurance industry, the models are reliant upon significant meteorology, seismology, and engineering assumptions to estimate hurricane and earthquake losses. In particular, modeled hurricane and earthquake events are not always a representation of actual events and ensuing additional loss potential. Second, there is no universal standard in the preparation of insured data for use in the models and the running of the modeling software. Third, we are reliant upon third-party estimates of industry insured exposures and there is significant variation possible around the relationship between our loss and that of the industry following an event. Fourth, we assume that our reinsurance recoveries following an event are fully collectible. These loss estimates do not represent our potential maximum exposures and it is highly likely that our actual incurred losses would vary materially from the modeled estimates. 84
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During 2011, ACE conducted an in-depth review of hurricane risk, including assessment of the latest third-party hurricane model which had a significant increase in hazard and vulnerability estimates. The above hurricane PMLs reflect the findings from that review, including full implementation of the revised models, a multi-model framework for risk assessment, and custom model output adjustments to better reflect ACE's underlying exposure profile.
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Natural catastrophe property reinsurance program
ACE's core property catastrophe reinsurance program provides protection against natural catastrophes impacting its primary property operations (i.e., excluding assumed reinsurance) and consists of two separate towers. We regularly review our reinsurance protection and corresponding property catastrophe exposures. This may or may not lead to the purchase of additional reinsurance prior to a program's renewal date. In addition, prior to each renewal date, we consider how much, if any, coverage we intend to buy and we may make material changes to the current structure in light of various factors, including modeled PML assessment at various return periods, reinsurance pricing, our risk tolerance and exposures, and various other structuring considerations. The following table summarizes ACE's coverage under its General Catastrophe Treaty for both the North American and International towers, effective for the coverage periods indicated. With respect to Tower 1 - North American, our Core Program renewed onJanuary 1, 2012 , for a period of one year as follows (all dollar amounts are approximate): Percentage Coverage Placed with Loss Location Period Layer of Loss Reinsurers Comments Notes Tower 1 - North American Core Program North America 100% retained $0 million - 0% Losses retained by ACE (a ) $500 million North America January 2012 $500 million - 100% One reinstatement - December $1.1 billion 2012 Global January 2012 U.S.earthquake 100% No reinstatement (b ) - and hurricane December 2012 $1.1 billion - $1.175 billion North America January 2012 $1.1 billion - 100% All property perils (c ) - $1.2 billion other than earthquake. December 2012 One reinstatement. Global layer above inures to the benefit of this layer if Global layer is not exhausted. Calabash Program We have a multi-year, peril-specific program from a major reinsurer that is backed by its strong credit worthiness and the issuance of fully collateralized catastrophe bonds (the Calabash program). The program's expected loss is kept the same each year by the annual adjustment, either up or down, of the attachment point based upon an independent modeling firm's review of the exposure data underlying each program. Due to exposure change, the attachment point for the Calabash program increased from$750 million in 2011 to$766 million in 2012, for the$86 million of wind protection and from approximately$1.173 billion in 2011 to approximately$1.191 billion in 2012, for earthquake protection. The Calabash program expiresJune 15, 2012 . North America Maine to Texas $766 No reinstatement Windstorm or million Multi-year - program $966 43% part of ending million $200 million June 2012 or or California, Pacific NW, and $1.191 Central U.S. Earthquake billion - $1.291 86% part of billion $100 million California, Pacific NW, and $1.191 No reinstatement Central U.S. Earthquake Multi-year billion program - ending $1.291 14% part of June 2012 billion $100 million (a) Ultimate retention will depend upon the nature of the loss and the interplay between the underlying per risk programs and certain other catastrophe programs purchased by individual business units. These other catastrophe programs have the potential to reduce our effective retention below$500 million .
(b) The Global layer was added to the Core Program effective
(c) This layer was added to the Core Program effective
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Percentage Coverage Layer of Placed with Loss Location Period Loss Reinsurers Comments Notes Tower 2 - InternationalJuly 1, 2011 -June 30, 2012 Program (unless otherwise noted) Core Program International 100% $0 0% Losses retained (d ) retained million by ACE - $75 million International July 2011 $75 3.33% part of Two reinstatements (including Alaska and - million $75 million Hawaii) June 2012 - $150 million International July 2011 $100 15% part of One reinstatement (including Alaska and - million $50 million Hawaii) June 2012 - $150 million International July 2011 $150 100% One reinstatement (including Alaska and - million Hawaii) June 2012 - $300 million International July 2011 $300 100% Two reinstatements. (including Alaska and - million Covers all perils Hawaii) June 2012 - Europe and worldwide $450 earthquake exposure million (excludes contiguous U.S.). International July 2011 $450 100% One reinstatement (including Alaska and - million Hawaii) June 2012 - $500 million International July 2011 $500 100% One reinstatement (including Alaska and - million Hawaii) June 2012 - $550 million Global January Outside 100% No reinstatement (e ) 2012 U.S. $400 million -December $400 attachment - all 2012 million perils other than - earthquake and $475 outside of Europe million $550 million or attachment - Europe $550 all perils and million earthquake outside - U.S. $625 million (d) Ultimate retention will depend upon the nature of the loss and the interplay between the underlying per risk programs, certain other catastrophe programs purchased by individual business units, and territories and regions around the world.
(e) The Global layer was added to the Core Program effective
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Political Risk, Trade Credit, and Structured Trade Credit
Political risk insurance is a specialized coverage that provides clients with protection against unexpected, catastrophic political or macroeconomic events, primarily in developing markets. We participate in this market through our wholly owned subsidiarySovereign Risk Insurance Ltd. (Sovereign), and through a unit of ourLondon -basedACE Global Markets operation. Sovereign is one of the world's leading underwriters of political risk insurance and has a global portfolio spread across more than 100 countries. Its clients include financial institutions, national export credit agencies, leading multilateral agencies, and multinational corporations.ACE Global Markets writes political risk, trade credit, and structured trade credit business out of underwriting offices inLondon ,Hamburg, New York ,Los Angeles , andSingapore . Our political risk insurance provides protection to commercial lenders against defaults on cross border loans, insulates investors against equity losses, and protects exporters against defaults on contracts. Commercial lenders, our largest client segment, are covered for missed scheduled loan repayments due to acts of confiscation, expropriation or nationalization by the host
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government; currency inconvertibility or exchange transfer restrictions, or war or other acts of political violence. In addition, in the case of loans to government-owned entities or loans that have a government guarantee, political risk policies cover scheduled payments against risks of nonpayment or non-honoring of government guarantees. Equity investors and corporations receive similar coverage to that of lenders, except they are protected against financial losses, inability to repatriate dividends, and physical damage to their operations caused by covered events. Our export contracts protection provides coverage for both exporters and their financing banks against the risk of contract frustration due to government actions, including non-payment by government entities.ACE Global Markets' trade credit and structured trade credit businesses cover losses due to insolvency, protracted default, and political risk perils including export and license cancellation. It provides trade credit coverage to larger companies that have sophisticated credit risk management systems, with exposure to multiple customers and that have the ability to self-insure losses up to a certain level through excess of loss coverage. Its structured trade credit business provides coverage to trade finance banks, exporters, and trading companies, with exposure to trade-related financing instruments. We have implemented structural features in our policies in order to control potential losses within the political risk, trade credit, and structured credit businesses. These include basic loss sharing features that include co-insurance and deductibles, and in the case of trade credit, the use of non-qualifying losses that drop smaller exposures deemed too difficult to assess. Ultimate loss severity is also limited by using waiting periods to enable the insurer and insured to agree on recovery strategies, and the subrogation of the rights of the lender/exporter to the insurer following a claim. We have the option to pay claims over the original loan payment schedule, rather than in a lump sum in order to provide insureds and the insurer additional time to remedy problems and work towards full recoveries. It is important to note that political risk, trade credit, and structured trade credit policies are named peril conditional contracts, not financial guarantees, and claims are only paid after conditions and warranties are fulfilled. Political risk, trade credit, and structured trade credit insurance do not cover currency devaluations, bond defaults, any form of derivatives, movements in overseas equity markets, transactions deemed illegal, or situations where corruption or misrepresentation has occurred, or debt that is not legally enforceable. In addition to assessing and mitigating potential exposure on a policy-by-policy basis, we also have specific risk management measures in place to manage overall exposure and risk. These measures include placing country and individual transaction limits based on country risk and credit ratings, combined single loss limits on multi-country policies, the use of reinsurance protection, and regular modeling and stress-testing of the portfolio.
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Crop insurance
We are, and have been since the 1980s, one of the leading writers of crop insurance in the U.S. and have conducted that business through an MGA subsidiary of Rain and Hail. We provide protection throughout the U.S. and are therefore geographically diversified, which reduces the risk of exposure to a single event or a heavy accumulation of losses in any one region. Our crop insurance business comprises two components -Multi-Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) and hail insurance. The MPCI program is a partnership with theU.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The policies cover revenue shortfalls or production losses due to natural causes such as drought, excessive moisture, hail, wind, frost, insects, and disease. Generally, policies have deductibles ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent of the insured's risk. TheUSDA's Risk Management Agency (RMA) sets the policy terms and conditions, rates and forms, and is also responsible for setting compliance standards. As a participating company, we report all details of policies underwritten to the RMA and are party to a Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA). The SRA sets out the relationship between private insurance companies and theFederal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) concerning the terms and conditions regarding the risks each will bear as well as the timing of the annual settlement and the Administrative and Operating expense payment (A&O subsidy). Each year the RMA issues a final SRA for the subsequent reinsurance year which runsJuly 1 through June 30 . InJuly 2010 , the RMA released the 2011 SRA which established the terms and conditions applicable for the 2011 reinsurance year (i.e.,July 1, 2010 throughJune 30, 2011 ). Similar to the 2010 SRA, the 2011 SRA contained the pro-rata and state stop-loss provisions which continued to allow companies to limit the exposure of any one state or group of states on their underwriting results. Generally, it also continued to allow companies to selectively retain the more attractive risks while ceding the historically less profitable risks to the federal government. While the 2011 SRA reduced the potential underwriting profit, it also decreased the maximum underwriting loss, compared with the 2010 SRA. Despite the potential underwriting profitability reduction, we believe the 2011 SRA allowed for an acceptable rate of return. In addition to the pro-rata and excess of loss reinsurance protections inherent in the SRA, we cede business on a quota-share basis to third-party reinsurers and further protect our net retained position through the purchase of state stop-loss reinsurance in the private market place. The 87
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2011 SRA amended the provisions related to the annual settlement. Prior to the 2011 SRA, the annual settlement (where our portion of any underwriting gain or loss is determined and paid) occurred in the first quarter following the close of the reinsurance year. Effective with the 2011 SRA, the annual settlement will occur in the fourth quarter following the close of the reinsurance year. The application of this amendment had no impact on our 2011 financial results. InJuly 2011 , the RMA released the 2012 SRA which establishes the terms and conditions for the 2012 reinsurance year (i.e.,July 1, 2011 throughJune 30, 2012 ). The 2012 SRA amends the provisions related to the A&O subsidy. Prior to the 2012 SRA, the A&O subsidy was paid monthly during the reinsurance year. Effective with the 2012 SRA, the A&O subsidy will be paid in the fourth quarter following the end of the reinsurance year. The application of this amendment had no impact on our 2011 financial results. On the MPCI business, we recognize net premiums written as we receive acreage reports from the policyholders on the various crops throughout the U.S. and these reports allow us to determine the actual premium associated with the liability that is being planted. The MPCI program has specific timeframes as to when producers must report acreage to us and in certain cases, the reporting occurs after the close of the respective reinsurance year. Once the net premium written has been booked, the premium is then earned over the growing season for the crops. A majority of the crops that are covered in the program are typically subject to the SRA in effect at the beginning of the year. Given the major crops covered in the program, we typically see a substantial written and earned premium impact in the second and third quarters. For our 2011 fiscal year results, winter wheat planting was the only significant planting subject to the 2012 SRA. Given that the winter wheat crop does not represent a significant portion of our crop business, the application of the 2012 SRA had minimal impact on our 2011 financial results. The rating of MPCI premium is determined using a number of factors including commodity prices and related volatility. For instance, in most states the rating for the MPCI Revenue Product for corn includes a factor that is based on the average price in February of theChicago Board of Trade December corn futures. To the extent that the corn commodity prices are higher in February than they were in the previous February, and all other factors are the same, the increase in corn prices will increase the corn premium year over year. Prior to the acquisition of Rain and Hail, we regularly received reports relating to the previous reinsurance year(s), resulting in adjustments to previously reported premiums, losses and loss expenses, and profit share commissions. The adjustments were typically more significant in the first quarter of the year compared with other periods. Following the Rain and Hail acquisition onDecember 28, 2010 , we have access to such information sooner. Accordingly, the more significant changes in estimate that previously occurred in the first quarter now occur one quarter earlier. Our hail program is a private offering. Premium is earned on the hail program over the coverage period of the policy. Given the very short nature of the growing season, most hail business is typically written in the second and third quarters with the earned premium also more heavily occurring during this time frame. We use industry data to develop our own rates and forms for the coverage offered. The policy primarily protects farmers against yield reduction caused by hail and/or fire, and related costs such as transit to storage. We offer various deductibles to allow the grower to partially self-insure for a reduced premium cost. We limit our hail exposures through the use of township liability limits, quota-share reinsurance cessions, and state stop-loss reinsurance on our net retained hail business.
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Liquidity
Liquidity is a measure of a company's ability to generate cash flows sufficient to meet the short-term and long-term cash requirements of its business operations. As a holding company,ACE Limited possesses assets that consist primarily of the stock of its subsidiaries and other investments. In addition to net investment income,ACE Limited's cash flows depend primarily on dividends or other statutorily permissible payments. Historically, these dividends and other payments have come from ACE'sBermuda -based operating subsidiaries, which we refer to as ourBermuda subsidiaries. Our consolidated sources of funds consist primarily of net premiums written, fees, net investment income, and proceeds from sales and maturities of investments. Funds are used at our various companies primarily to pay claims, operating expenses, and dividends and to service debt and purchase investments. We anticipate that positive cash flows from operations (underwriting activities and investment income) should be sufficient to cover cash outflows under most loss scenarios through 2012. Should the need arise, we generally have access to capital markets and available credit facilities. Refer to "Credit Facilities" below for additional information. Our access to funds under existing credit facilities is dependent on the ability of the banks that are parties to the facilities to meet their funding commitments. Our existing credit facilities have remaining terms expiring between 2012 and 2015 and require that we maintain 88
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certain financial covenants, all of which we met atDecember 31, 2011 . Should any of our existing credit providers experience financial difficulty, we may be required to replace credit sources, possibly in a difficult market. There has also been recent consolidation in the banking industry which could lead to increased reliance on and exposure to particular institutions. If we cannot obtain adequate capital or sources of credit on favorable terms, on a timely basis or at all, our business, operating results, and financial condition could be adversely affected. To date, we have not experienced difficulty accessing any of our credit facilities. To further ensure the sufficiency of funds to settle unforeseen claims, we hold a certain amount of invested assets in cash and short-term investments. In addition, for certain insurance, reinsurance, or deposit contracts that tend to have relatively large and reasonably predictable cash outflows, we attempt to establish dedicated portfolios of assets that are duration-matched with the related liabilities. With respect to the duration of our overall investment portfolio, we manage asset durations to both maximize return given current market conditions and provide sufficient liquidity to cover future loss payments. In a low interest rate environment, the overall duration of our fixed maturity investments tends to be shorter and in a high interest rate environment, such duration tends to be longer. Given the current low interest rate environment, atDecember 31, 2011 , the average duration of our fixed maturity investments (3.7 years) is less than the average expected duration of our insurance liabilities (4.5 years). Despite our safeguards, if paid losses accelerated beyond our ability to fund such paid losses from current operating cash flows, we might need to either liquidate a portion of our investment portfolio or arrange for financing. Potential events causing such a liquidity strain could include several significant catastrophes occurring in a relatively short period of time, large uncollectible reinsurance recoverables on paid losses (as a result of coverage disputes, reinsurers' credit problems or decreases in the value of collateral supporting reinsurance recoverables) or increases in collateral postings under our variable annuity reinsurance business. Because each subsidiary focuses on a more limited number of specific product lines than is collectively available from theACE Group of Companies , the mix of business tends to be less diverse at the subsidiary level. As a result, the probability of a liquidity strain, as described above, may be greater for individual subsidiaries than when liquidity is assessed on a consolidated basis. If such a liquidity strain were to occur in a subsidiary, we could be required to liquidate a portion of our investments, potentially at distressed prices, as well as be required to contribute capital to the particular subsidiary and/or curtail dividends from the subsidiary to support holding company operations. The payments of dividends or other statutorily permissible distributions from our operating companies are subject to the laws and regulations applicable to each jurisdiction, as well as the need to maintain capital levels adequate to support the insurance and reinsurance operations, including financial strength ratings issued by independent rating agencies. During 2011, we were able to meet all of our obligations, including the payments of dividend distributions on our Common Shares with our net cash flows. We assess which subsidiaries to draw dividends from based on a number of factors. Considerations such as regulatory and legal restrictions as well as the subsidiary's financial condition are paramount to the dividend decision. The legal restrictions on the payment of dividends from retained earnings by ourBermuda subsidiaries are currently satisfied by the share capital and additional paid-in capital of each of theBermuda subsidiaries.ACE Limited received dividends of$560 million and$200 million from itsBermuda subsidiaries in 2011 and 2010, respectively.
The payment of any dividends from
The U.S. insurance subsidiaries of ACE INA may pay dividends, without prior regulatory approval, subject to restrictions set out in state law of the subsidiary's domicile (or, if applicable, commercial domicile). ACE INA's international subsidiaries are also subject to insurance laws and regulations particular to the countries in which the subsidiaries operate. These laws and regulations sometimes include restrictions that limit the amount of dividends payable without prior approval of regulatory insurance authorities.ACE Limited did not receive any dividends from ACE INA in 2011 and 2010. Debt issued by ACE INA is serviced by statutorily permissible distributions by ACE INA's insurance subsidiaries to ACE INA as well as other group resources. 89
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Cash Flows
Our insurance and reinsurance operations provide liquidity in that premiums are received in advance, sometimes substantially in advance, of the time claims are paid. Generally, cash flows are affected by claim payments that, due to the nature of our operations, may comprise large loss payments on a limited number of claims and which can fluctuate significantly from period to period. The irregular timing of these loss payments can create significant variations in cash flows from operations between periods. Refer to "Contractual Obligations and Commitments" for our estimate of future claim payments by period. Sources of liquidity include cash from operations, routine sales of investments, and financing arrangements. The following is a discussion of our cash flows for 2011 and 2010.
The operating cash flows reflect net income for each period, adjusted for non-cash items and changes in working capital.
Our consolidated net cash flows from operating activities were$3.5 billion in both 2011 and 2010. Net loss and loss expenses paid were$8.9 billion in 2011, compared with$7.4 billion in the prior year. In 2011, operating cash flow included$203 million of cash collateral received related to a large insurance transaction, net of collateral returned. Some or all of the cash collateral may change to non-cash collateral, which would ultimately result in a reduction in future operating cash flows. Our consolidated net cash flows used for investing activities were$3.0 billion in 2011, compared with$4.2 billion in the prior year. Net investing activities for the indicated periods were related primarily to net purchases of fixed maturities. Acquisition of subsidiaries in 2011 included New York Life'sKorea operations andHong Kong operations, PMHC, and Rio Guayas and in 2010 included Rain and Hail and Jerneh Insurance Berhad. Our consolidated net cash flows used for financing activities were$565 million in 2011, compared with cash flows from financing activities of$732 million in the prior year. In 2011 and 2010 financing activities included dividends paid on our Common Shares of$459 million and$435 million , respectively. Net cash flows used for financing activities in 2011 included$5.0 billion of reverse repurchase settlements, the repayment of$300 million of short-term debt, and$195 million of Common Share repurchases, partially offset by net proceeds of$5.2 billion for reverse repurchase agreements, and$133 million of proceeds from share-based compensation plans. Net cash flows from financing activities in 2010 included net proceeds of$699 million from the issuance of long-term debt,$1.0 billion in reverse repurchase agreements, and$300 million in credit facility borrowings. This was partially offset by repayment of$659 million in debt and$235 million of share repurchases settled in 2010. Both internal and external forces influence our financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows. Claim settlements, premium levels, and investment returns may be impacted by changing rates of inflation and other economic conditions. In many cases, significant periods of time, ranging up to several years or more, may lapse between the occurrence of an insured loss, the reporting of the loss to us, and the settlement of the liability for that loss. In the current low-interest rate environment, we utilize reverse repurchase agreements as a low-cost alternative for short-term funding needs and to address short-term cash timing differences without disrupting our investment portfolio holdings. We subsequently settle these transactions with future operating cash flows. AtDecember 31, 2011 , there were$1.3 billion in reverse repurchase agreements outstanding. In addition to cash from operations, routine sales of investments, and financing arrangements, we have agreements with a third party bank provider which implemented two international multi-currency notional cash pooling programs to enhance cash management efficiency during periods of short-term timing mismatches between expected inflows and outflows of cash by currency. The programs allow us to optimize investment income by avoiding portfolio disruption. In each program, participating ACE entities establish deposit accounts in different currencies with the bank provider. Each day the credit or debit balances in every account are notionally translated into a single currency (U.S. dollars) and then notionally pooled. The bank extends overdraft credit to all participating ACE entities as needed, provided that the overall notionally pooled balance of all accounts in each pool at the end of each day is at least zero. Actual cash balances are not physically converted and are not commingled between legal entities. ACE entities may incur overdraft balances as a means to address short-term liquidity needs. Any overdraft balances incurred under this program by an ACE entity would be guaranteed byACE Limited (up to$350 million in the aggregate). Our revolving credit facility allows for same day drawings to fund a net pool overdraft should participating ACE entities withdraw contributed funds from the pool. 90
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Capital Resources
Capital resources consist of funds deployed or available to be deployed to support our business operations. The following table summarizes the components of our capital resources:
(in millions of U.S. dollars, except for December 31 December 31 percentages) 2011 2010 Short-term debt $ 1,251 $ 1,300 Long-term debt 3,360 3,358 Total debt 4,611 4,658 Trust preferred securities 309 309 Total shareholders' equity 24,516 22,974 Total capitalization $ 29,436 $ 27,941 Ratio of debt to total capitalization 15.7% 16.7%Ratio of debt plus trust preferred securities to total capitalization 16.7% 17.8%
Our ratios of debt to total capitalization and debt plus trust preferred securities to total capitalization have decreased due to the increase in shareholders' equity (discussed below) and slight decrease in short-term debt.
We believe our financial strength provides us with the flexibility and capacity to obtain available funds externally through debt or equity financing on both a short-term and long-term basis. Our ability to access the capital markets is dependent on, among other things, market conditions and our perceived financial strength. We have accessed both the debt and equity markets from time to time. We generally maintain the ability to issue certain classes of debt and equity securities via an unlimitedSEC shelf registration which is renewed every three years. This allows us capital market access for refinancing as well as for unforeseen or opportunistic capital needs. Our current shelf registration on file with theSEC expires inDecember 2014 . The following table reports the significant movements in our shareholders' equity: December 31 (in millions of U.S. dollars) 2011 Balance at beginning of year $ 22,974 Net income 1,585 Dividends on Common Shares (467 ) Change in net unrealized appreciation on investments, net of tax
316
Common Shares repurchased (132 ) Share-based compensation expense and other 139 Exercise of stock options 63 Other movements, net of tax 38 Balance at end of year $ 24,516 As part of our capital management program, inAugust 2011 , our Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to$303 million of ACE's Common Shares throughDecember 31, 2012 . The amount authorized inAugust 2011 was in addition to the$197 million balance remaining under a$600 million share repurchase approved inNovember 2010 . Under theNovember 2010 authorization, we repurchased$303 million of ACE's Common Shares as ofDecember 31, 2010 . We repurchased$132 million and$303 million of Common Shares in a series of open market transactions in 2011 and 2010, respectively. AtDecember 31, 2011 , a total of$468 million in share repurchase authorization remained throughDecember 31, 2012 pursuant to theNovember 2010 andAugust 2011 Board of Directors authorizations. As ofDecember 31, 2011 there were 5,905,136 Common Shares in treasury with a weighted average cost of$55.36 .
Short-term debt
At
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Long-term debt
At
InNovember 2010 , ACE INA issued$700 million of 2.6 percent senior notes dueNovember 2015 . These senior unsecured notes are guaranteed on a senior basis by ACE and they rank equally with all of our other senior obligations.
Trust preferred securities
The securities outstanding consist of$300 million of trust preferred securities due 2030, issued by a special purpose entity (a trust) that is wholly owned by us. The sole assets of the special purpose entity are debt instruments issued by one or more of our subsidiaries. The special purpose entity looks to payments on the debt instruments to make payments on the preferred securities. We have guaranteed the payments on these debt instruments. The trustees of the trust include one or more of our officers and at least one independent trustee, such as a trust company. Our officers serving as trustees of the trust do not receive any compensation or other remuneration for their services in such capacity. The full$309 million of outstanding trust preferred securities (calculated as$300 million as discussed above plus our equity share of the trust) is shown on our consolidated balance sheets as a liability. Additional information with respect to the trust preferred securities is contained in Note 9 d) to the Consolidated Financial Statements, under Item 8.
Common Shares
Our Common Shares had a par value of
Under Swiss corporate law, dividends, including distributions through a reduction in par value (par value reductions), must be stated by ACE in Swiss francs though dividend payments are made by ACE in U.S. dollars. Dividend distributions following ACE's redomestication toSwitzerland inJuly 2008 throughMarch 31, 2011 were paid in the form of a par value reduction (under the methods approved by our shareholders at our Annual General Meetings) and had the effect of reducing par value per Common Share each time a dividend was distributed. In light of aJanuary 1, 2011 Swiss tax law change, shareholders at ourMay 2011 Annual General Meeting approved a dividend for the following year from capital contribution reserves (Additional paid in capital), a subaccount of legal reserves. Dividend distributions on Common Shares amounted toCHF 1.22 ($1.38) for the year endedDecember 31, 2011 (including par value reductions ofCHF 0.30 ). InNovember 2011 , the Board of Directors recommended that our shareholders approve a resolution to increase our quarterly dividend 34 percent from$0.35 per share to$0.47 per share for the payment made onJanuary 31, 2012 and the payment to be made by the end ofApril 2012 . This proposed increase was approved by our shareholders at theJanuary 9, 2012 Extraordinary General Meeting.
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Table of Contents -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contractual Obligations and Commitments
The table below shows our contractual obligations and commitments including our payments due by period at
Payments Due By Period 2013 2015 (in millions of U.S. dollars) Total 2012 and 2014 and 2016 There-after Payment amounts determinable from the respective contracts Deposit liabilities $ 663 $ 31 $ 53 $ 36 $ 543 Purchase obligations 315 100 127 88 - Limited partnerships - funding commitments 777 235 384 158 - Operating leases 497 93 132 106 166 Short-term debt 1,251 1,251 - - - Long-term debt 3,363 - 500 1,150 1,713 Trust preferred securities 309 - - - 309 Interest on debt obligations 1,900 208 399 296 997 Total obligations in which payment amounts are determinable from the respective contracts 9,075 1,918 1,595 1,834 3,728 Payment amounts not determinable from the respective contracts Estimated gross loss payments under insurance and reinsurance contracts 37,477 9,449 9,517 5,433 13,078 Estimated payments for future life and annuity policy benefits 9,487 301 623 573 7,990 Total contractual obligations and commitments $ 56,039 $ 11,668 $ 11,735 $ 7,840 $ 24,796
The above table excludes the following items:
Pension obligations: Minimum funding requirements for our pension obligations are immaterial. Subsequent funding commitments are apt to vary due to many factors and are difficult to estimate at this time. Refer to Note 13 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, under Item 8, for additional information.
Liabilities for unrecognized tax benefits: The liability for unrecognized tax benefits, excluding interest, was$134 million atDecember 31, 2011 . We recognize accruals for interest and penalties, if any, related to unrecognized tax benefits in income tax expense in the consolidated statements of operations. AtDecember 31, 2011 , we had$22 million in liabilities for income tax-related interest in our consolidated balance sheet. We are unable to make a reasonably reliable estimate for the timing of cash settlement with respect to these liabilities. Refer to Note 8 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, under Item 8, for more information.
We have no other significant contractual obligations or commitments not reflected in the table above.
Deposit liabilities Deposit liabilities include reinsurance deposit liabilities of$318 million and contract holder deposit funds of$345 million atDecember 31, 2011 . The reinsurance deposit liabilities arise from contracts we sold for which there is not a significant transfer of risk. At contract inception, the deposit liability is equal to net cash received. An accretion rate is established based on actuarial estimates whereby the deposit liability is increased to the estimated amount payable over the term of the contract. The deposit accretion rate is the rate of return required to fund expected future payment obligations. We periodically reassess the estimated ultimate liability and related expected rate of return. Any resulting changes to the amount of the deposit liability are reflected as an adjustment to earnings to reflect the cumulative effect of the period the contract has been in force, and by an adjustment to the future accretion rate of the liability over the remaining estimated contract term.
Additional information with respect to deposit liabilities is contained in Note 1 k) to the Consolidated Financial Statements, under Item 8.
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Purchase obligations
We are party to enforceable and legally binding agreements to purchase certain services. Purchase obligations in the table primarily comprise audit fees and agreements with vendors to purchase system software administration and maintenance services.
Limited partnerships - funding commitments
In connection with our investments in limited partnerships, we have commitments that may require funding over the next several years. The timing of the payment of these commitments is uncertain and will differ from our estimated timing in the table. Operating lease commitments
We lease office space in most countries in which we operate under operating leases that expire at various dates through
Estimated gross loss payments under insurance and reinsurance contracts
We are obligated to pay claims under insurance and reinsurance contracts for specified loss events covered under those contracts. Such loss payments represent our most significant future payment obligation as a P&C insurance and reinsurance company. In contrast to other contractual obligations, cash payments are not determinable from the terms specified within the contract. For example, we do not ultimately make a payment to our counterparty for many insurance and reinsurance contracts (i.e., when a loss event has not occurred) and if a payment is to be made, the amount and timing cannot be determined from the contract. In the table above, we estimate payments by period relating to our gross liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses included in the consolidated balance sheet atDecember 31, 2011 , and do not take into account reinsurance recoverable. These estimated loss payments are inherently uncertain and the amount and timing of actual loss payments are likely to differ from these estimates and the differences could be material. Given the numerous factors and assumptions involved in both estimates of loss and loss expense reserves and related estimates as to the timing of future loss and loss expense payments in the table above, differences between actual and estimated loss payments will not necessarily indicate a commensurate change in ultimate loss estimates.
Estimated payments for future life and annuity policy benefits
We establish reserves for future policy benefits for life and annuity contracts. The amounts in the table are gross of fees or premiums due from the underlying contracts. The liability for future policy benefits for life and annuity contracts presented in our balance sheet is discounted and reflected net of fees or premiums due from the underlying contracts. Accordingly, the estimated amounts in the table exceed the liability for future policy benefits for life and annuity contracts presented in our balance sheet. Payment amounts related to these reserves must be estimated and are not determinable from the contract. Due to the uncertainty with respect to the timing and amount of these payments, actual results could materially differ from the estimates in the table.
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Credit Facilities
As ourBermuda subsidiaries are not admitted insurers and reinsurers in the U.S., the terms of certain U.S. insurance and reinsurance contracts require them to provide collateral, which can be in the form of letters of credit (LOCs). In addition,ACE Global Markets is required to satisfy certain U.S. regulatory trust fund requirements which can be met by the issuance of LOCs. LOCs may also be used for general corporate purposes and to provide underwriting capacity as funds at Lloyd's.
The following table shows our main credit facilities by credit line, usage, and expiry date at
Credit (in millions of U.S. dollars) Line(1) Usage Expiry Date Syndicated Letter of Credit Facility $ 1,000 $ 948 Nov. 2012 Revolving Credit/LOC Facility(2) 500 55 Nov. 2012 Bilateral Letter of Credit Facility 500 500 Sept. 2014 Funds at Lloyds's Capital Facilities(3) 400 392 Dec. 2015 Total $ 2,400 $ 1,895
(1) Certain facilities are guaranteed by operating subsidiaries and/or
(2) May also be used for LOCs.
(3) Supports ACE Global Markets underwriting capacity for Lloyd's Syndicate 2488 (see discussion below).
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InNovember 2010 , we entered into four LOC facility agreements which collectively permit the issuance of up to$400 million of LOCs. We expect that most of the LOCs issued under the LOC agreements will be used to support the ongoing Funds at Lloyd's requirements of Syndicate 2488, but LOCs may also be used for other general corporate purposes. It is anticipated that our commercial facilities will be renewed on expiry but such renewals are subject to the availability of credit from banks utilized by ACE. In the event that such credit support is insufficient, we could be required to provide alternative security to clients. This could take the form of additional insurance trusts supported by our investment portfolio or funds withheld using our cash resources. The value of LOCs required is driven by, among other things, statutory liabilities reported by variable annuity guarantee reinsurance clients, loss development of existing reserves, the payment pattern of such reserves, the expansion of business, and loss experience of such business.
The facilities in the table above require that we maintain certain covenants, all of which have been met at
(i) Maintenance of a minimum consolidated net worth in an amount not less than
the "Minimum Amount". For the purpose of this calculation, the Minimum Amount
is an amount equal to the sum of the base amount (currently
plus 25 percent of consolidated net income for each fiscal quarter, ending
after the date on which the current base amount became effective, plus 50
percent of any increase in consolidated net worth during the same period,
attributable to the issuance of Common and Preferred Shares. The Minimum
Amount is subject to an annual reset provision.
(ii) Maintenance of a maximum debt to total capitalization ratio of not greater
than 0.35 to 1. Under this covenant, debt does not include trust preferred
securities or mezzanine equity, except where the ratio of the sum of trust
preferred securities and mezzanine equity to total capitalization is greater
than 15 percent. In this circumstance, the amount greater than 15 percent
would be included in the debt to total capitalization ratio. AtDecember 31, 2011 , (a) the minimum consolidated net worth requirement under the covenant described in (i) above was$16.5 billion and our actual consolidated net worth as calculated under that covenant was$22.8 billion and (b) our ratio of debt to total capitalization was 0.157 to 1, which is below the maximum debt to total capitalization ratio of 0.35 to 1 as described in (ii) above. Our failure to comply with the covenants under any credit facility would, subject to grace periods in the case of certain covenants, result in an event of default. This could require us to repay any outstanding borrowings or to cash collateralize LOCs under such facility. A failure byACE Limited (or any of its subsidiaries) to pay an obligation due for an amount exceeding$50 million would result in an event of default under all of the facilities described above.
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Ratings
ACE Limited and its subsidiaries are assigned credit and financial strength (insurance) ratings from internationally recognized rating agencies, including S&P,A.M. Best , Moody's, and Fitch. The ratings issued on our companies by these agencies are announced publicly and are available directly from the agencies. Our internet site, www.acegroup.com, also contains some information about our ratings, which can be found under the Investor Information tab but such information on our website is not incorporated by reference into this report. Financial strength ratings reflect the rating agencies' opinions of a company's claims paying ability. Independent ratings are one of the important factors that establish our competitive position in the insurance markets. The rating agencies consider many factors in determining the financial strength rating of an insurance company, including the relative level of statutory surplus necessary to support the business operations of the company. These ratings are based upon factors relevant to policyholders, agents, and intermediaries and are not directed toward the protection of investors. Such ratings are not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold securities.
Credit ratings assess a company's ability to make timely payments of principal and interest on its debt.
It is possible that, in the future, one or more of the rating agencies may reduce our existing ratings. If one or more of our ratings were downgraded, we could incur higher borrowing costs and our ability to access the capital markets could be impacted. In addition, our insurance and reinsurance operations could be adversely impacted by a downgrade in our financial strength ratings, including a possible reduction in demand for our products in certain markets. For example, theACE Global Markets capital facility requires that collateral be posted if the S&P financial strength rating of ACE falls to BBB+ or lower. Also, we have insurance and reinsurance contracts which contain rating triggers. In the event the S&P orA.M. Best financial strength 95
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Table of Contents
ratings of ACE fall to BBB+ or lower, we may be faced with the cancellation of premium or be required to post collateral on our underlying obligation associated with this premium. We estimate that atDecember 31, 2011 , a one-notch downgrade of our S&P orA.M. Best financial strength ratings would result in an immaterial loss of premium or requirement for collateral to be posted.
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Recent Accounting Pronouncements
Refer to Note 1 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, under Item 8. for a discussion of new accounting pronouncements.
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