Here’s a rundown on the changes of keenest interest to insurance advisors...
NEW YORK, January 31, 2013- Global institutional pension fund assets in the 13 major markets grew by 9% during 2012 to reach a new high of US$30 trillion, according to Towers Watson’s Global Pension Assets Study released today. The growth is the continuation of a trend which started in 2009 when assets grew 17%, and in sharp contrast to a 21% fall during 2008 which took assets back to 2006 levels. Global pension fund assets have now grown at over 7% on average per annum (in USD) since 2002, when they were under half their current level. In the United States, institutional pension fund assets hit an all-time high of $16.9 trillion in 2012, having increased 10% during the year.
The study reveals that the growth in assets helped to strengthen pension fund balance sheets globally during 2012. Furthermore, the ratio of global assets to GDP is just below the level reached in 2007. According to the study, pension assets now amount to 78% of global GDP, which is significantly higher than the 72% recorded in 2011 and substantially higher than the 61% recorded in 2008.
“Given the extreme economic and market volatility we have experienced during the past five years it was a relief for many pension funds to finish the year in better shape than when it started, for a change,” said Carl Hess, global head of investment at Towers Watson. “While volatile markets are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, pension funds are now generally better equipped to deal with them. During the past five years we have seen many funds deal with their governance shortfalls and as a result a growing number of funds have either more qualified people working on their investments or they have outsourced the running of all or part of their portfolios to third parties. In addition, pension funds are implementing investment strategies that are more flexible and adaptable and which contain a broader view of risk so as to make greater allowance for extreme events.”
Other highlights from the report include:
Global asset data for the P13 in 2012
· The ten-year average growth rate of global pension assets (in local currency) is over 8%
· The largest pension markets are the US, Japan and the UK with 57%, 13% and 9% of total pension assets, respectively
· All markets in the study have positive ten-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) figures (in local currency)
· In terms of ten-year CAGR figures (in local currency terms), Hong Kong and Brazil have the highest growth of 14% followed by South Africa (13%) and Australia (11%). The lowest are Japan
(2%), France (2%) and Switzerland (4%)
· Ten-year figures (in local currency) show the UK and Netherlands have both grown their pension assets the most as a proportion of GDP by 42% to reach 112% and 156% of GDP respectively, followed by Australia (up 32% to 101% of GDP), the US (by 24% to 108% of GDP) and Hong Kong (up 23% to 40% of GDP).
· During this time South Africa’s ratio of pension assets to GDP has fallen by 2% to 64% of GDP.
Asset Allocation for the P7
· Bond allocations for the P7 markets have decreased by 7% in aggregate during the past 18 years (40% to 33%). Allocations to equities have fallen by 2% (to 47%) during the same period.
· Equity allocations in the UK have fallen from 61% in 2002 to 45% in 2012. In the Netherlands allocations fell from 37% to 27%, during the same period while Canada’s allocation to equities fell from 51% to 43%. Australia maintains the highest allocation to equities at 54% followed by the US on 52%, while the Netherlands overtakes Japan (55%) as having the highest allocation to bonds of 57%.
· Allocations to other (alternative) assets, especially real estate and to a lesser extent hedge funds, private equity and commodities, for the P7 markets have grown from 5% to 19% since 1995
· In the past decade most countries have increased their exposure to alternative assets with the UK increasing them the most (from 3% to17%), followed by Switzerland (18% to 30%), Canada (13% to 23%), the US (from 10% to 20%) and Australia (14% to 23%). Whereas allocations to alternatives have fallen in the Netherlands from 19% to 16% during the same period.
“Jittery markets and heightened risk awareness continues to make asset allocation very challenging as companies and trustees balance such priorities as long-term de-risking, short-term market opportunities, rebalancing, and maintaining a strategic asset allocation mix,” said Chris DeMeo, head of investment, Americas, at Towers Watson. “In terms of specific asset classes, we don’t think that bonds represent great value at the moment - but for those that think equities represent relatively better value, it is challenging to know what to do about it when the goal for many funds is to reduce risk overall. So many funds are buying fewer bonds than before, and those which are considering adding risk to their investment portfolios are most often diversifying into alternative assets rather than simply buying equities.”
Defined Benefit (DB) and Defined Contribution (DC) for the P7
· During the ten-year period from 2002 to 2012, the CAGR of DC assets was 8% against a rate of 7% for DB assets
· DC pension assets have grown from 43% in 2002 to 45% in 2012
· Australia has the highest proportion of DC to DB pension assets: 81% / 19%
· The markets that have a larger proportion of DC assets than DB assets are the US and Australia while Japan is close to 100% DB. The Netherlands and Canada, historically only DB, are now showing signs of a shift towards DC with 6% and 4% of assets in DC plans.
“Defined contribution funds continue to gain popularity around the world while various governments and companies battle the rising demographic tide by auto-enrolling or otherwise encouraging their citizens and employees into sustainable cost-effective retirement saving vehicles. But challenges remain, including funds trying to get the default investment option right as a matter of priority, with many opting for diversified growth funds to achieve this. Individuals - and companies - also continue to face the challenge of affordability. Saving for retirement through a company DC plan is still probably the best way of achieving this absent DB provision, but it is predicated on decent and sustained contributions as well as fair fee levels and structures - from reputable investment managers - that can compete with retail savings vehicles,” said Hess.
Public vs. private sector pensions in 2011 (no estimates available for 2012)
· 65% of pension assets of the P7 group are held by the private sector and 35% by the public sector
· In the UK and Australia the private sector holds the biggest portion of pension assets, accounting for 89% and 84% respectively of total assets in 2011
· Japan and Canada are the only two markets where the public sector holds more pension assets than the private sector, holding 73% and 57% of total assets respectively.
Notes to editors
· The P13 refers to the 13 largest pension markets included in the study which are Australia, Canada, Brazil, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the UK and the US. The P13 accounts for more than 85% of global pension assets
· The P7 refers to the 7 largest pension markets (over 95% of total assets in the study) and excludes Brazil, Germany, France, Ireland, Hong Kong and South Africa
· All figures are rounded and 2012 figures are estimates
· All dates refer to the calendar end of that year.
Towers Watson Investment
Towers Watson Investment is focused on creating financial value for the world’s leading institutional investors through its expertise in risk assessment, strategic asset allocation and investment manager selection. It is a division of Towers Watson’s Risk and Financial Services business, has over 750 associates worldwide and assets under advisory of over $US2 trillion.
About Towers Watson
Towers Watson (NYSE, NASDAQ: TW) is a leading global professional services company that helps organizations improve performance through effective people, risk and financial management. The company offers solutions in the areas of benefits, talent management, rewards, and risk and capital management. Towers Watson has over 14,000 associates around the world and is located on the web at www.towerswatson.com.
Measured by asset values over liability values using sovereign bond yields to discount liabilities.