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OPERATOR: Good morning and welcome to the Brown & Brown Inc.
earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded.
Please note that certain information discussed during this call,
including answers given in response to your questions, may relate to
future results and events or otherwise be forward-looking in nature
and reflect our current views with respect to future events,
including financial performance, and that such payments are intended
to fall within the Safe Harbor provisions of security laws. Actual
results or events in the future are subject to a number of risks and
uncertainties that may differ materially from those currently
anticipated or desired or referenced in any forward-looking
statements made as a result of numbers or factors, including those of
risks and uncertainties that have been or will identify from time to
time in the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission. Additional discussions of these and other factors
affecting the Company's business and prospects are contained in the
Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Listeners are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are not
guarantees of future performance, and those actual results and events
may differ from those indicated in this call. Such differences may be
material.
With that said, Mr. Brown, I will now turn the call over to you.
HYATT BROWN, CHAIRMAN & CEO, BROWN & BROWN: Thank you, Chris, and
good morning, everyone. We have Cory and Jim and Powell, and actually
one of the things that we're going to add to this call this morning
is that Jim is going to talk a little bit after acquisitions about
Citizens and the Florida CAT Fund, and Jim is the current Vice
Chairman of the Florida CAT Fund. So I think that you all will find
that information interesting.
So without further ado, Cory, would you like to talk about the
financials?
CORY WALKER, SVP, SFO & TREASURER, BROWN & BROWN: Thank you, Hyatt.
Our third-quarter financial results reflect the continuation of one
of the most difficult insurance market environments for insurance
agents that we have seen in the last 15 years. Our net income for the
third quarter of 2007 was $46.2 million and was up 14.8% over the
last year number. Correspondingly our net income per share for the
quarter was $0.33, and that is up 13.8% from the $0.29 we earned in
the third quarter of 2006.
From the revenue standpoint, commissions and fees for the quarter
increased 8.1% to $225.4 million. That is up from $208.6 million
earned in last year's third quarter. Included in our press release is
a table that summarizes our total growth rate and the internal growth
rates from our core commissions and fees.

In the third quarter, outside the core commission fees, we received
$8.9 million of profit-sharing contingent commission compared to $2.1
million we received in third quarter of last year. Now most of this
increase in the profit-sharing contingent commissions came from our
brokerage division, and specifically our Hull & Company
subsidiary.
Now looking at the internal growth schedule, for the third quarter,
we had a negative internal growth rate of 3%, and that was mainly due
to the significant insurance rate declines in the state of Florida.
Our total core commissions and fees for the quarter increased 5.6% or
$12 million of total new commissions and fees. However, within that
net number was $18.1 million of acquired revenues, and that means we
had $6.1 million less commissions and fees on a same-store sales
basis.
Hyatt, Jim and Powell will then talk about the activities in each of
these business segments in a minute. But moving along to the other
revenue line items, our investment income was just slightly higher
than prior year, so no real change there. Our other income was $8.6
million this year or this quarter. And inside of that number, we had
$7.2 million of gains from the sales of various books of business
around the country.
As it relates to our expenses in our pretax margins, our pretax
margin for the third quarter 2007 was 31.8%. However, if you exclude
the gains on the sale of the books of businesses, our pretax margin
was approximately 29.6%. That's 120 basis point reduction over the
prior year pretax margin of
30.9%. Excluding these gains, employee compensation benefits
increased 40 basis points to 48% of total revenues. That 40 basis
points represents approximately $1 million of net additional costs,
which was principally due to just various miscellaneous expenses
ranging from group health insurance to employee education and just
miscellaneous expense accounts.
Our non-cash stock-based compensation costs increased $700,000 in the
third quarter, and that is primarily due to the increased number of
employees participating in our employee stock purchase plan that has
a new annual plan year that starts each August.
Other operating expenses as a percentage of total revenues, again
excluding the gains on the sales of the books of business, was 14.3%
of total revenue compared to 13.9% in the third quarter of '06. That
is also a 40 basis points change, and it equates to approximately $1
million of actual net average cost. And that was again no specific
line item makes up the majority of that. It's just various expense
accounts like T&E, legal and insurance costs, but it probably had
much more to do with the fact that in the quarter we had lower
revenue growth and the general expenses just tweaked up a little bit.
Amortization and depreciation expense on a combined basis is
consistent with last year's third quarter when considering the
acquisitions that we have done over the last 12 months. Our interest
expense is consistent with the expected quarterly expense of around
$3.4 million.
Our effective tax rate for 2007 is currently expected to run in the
38.8% range, so the quarter was consistent with that. And then really
if you look at the year-to-date basis, the trends that we talked
about in the third quarter really are consistent with what happened
year-to-date, and so I will bypass just this line by line discussion
and just say that looking at year-to-date earnings per share for
2007, excluding the gains that we had on the books of business sales
and the gains that we had in the first two quarters on Rock-Tenn, the
year-to-date earnings per share was approximately $0.99, and that is
about a 4.2% increase over the $0.95 that we earned for the first
nine months of September 30 of '06.

So with that, I will turn it back over to Hyatt.
HYATT BROWN: Thanks, Cory. First of all, the Florida retail, which is
the biggest surprise that we have had in a long-time. As a
matter-of-fact, I don't think -- well, I don't think, I know I don't
remember any quarter where we have had a negative growth rate in
Florida. Last quarter we were at positive 7.1, and this is a negative
12.3. And there were a number of reasons, some of which we were
somewhat aware of, but we are not -- we did not expect them to be
quite as voracious in terms of eating up topline.
First of all in '06, Q2 and Q3 were pricing peaks. There was a
tremendous amount of anxiety among all the risk barriers in
anticipation of the hurricane season. Now you know the hurricane
season is really July 1 through I think the end of October, but it is
really July through the first of October.
So last year the highest prices for property insurance in the history
of the world in Florida were written, and that was fear of the
hurricane season. In Q3 of this year starting in June and it really
cascaded in July, August and September, the carriers all out the
pedal to the metal, and pricing of property is down 25 to 40 on every
account and a substantial more even higher than that. And a lot of
that is non-admitted pricing reductions.
The largest single example that I know of personally was a premium
that was in the quarter, third quarter of last year. The premium was
$3,562,000, and the renewal price was $1.560 million. It was down
56%. There are a number of other examples that are in that
neighborhood, and they are all the larger accounts, of course.
Now the second thing, which is a little more difficult to think
through but it is pretty simple when you think about it for awhile,
in quarter one and quarter two of this year, we did have a number of
cancellation and rewrites because of the dropping -- the prices
dropping so rapidly with Citizens. And so something that would be in
Q3 and sometimes Q4 we were canceling and rewriting in Q1 and Q2, and
of course, that revenue was absent from this quarter. Exactly how
much that is we don't know, although we have a number of examples.
The third thing is that casualty all of a sudden started down as
pressures by all the companies -- on all the companies to increase
their topline in terms of writing for casualty revenues and casualty
pricing, which had been kind of flattish, was down 10% to 20%, and a
new account, if you're going to write a new one, you have to be at
least 30% below expiring to get in the ballgame. Last and also not
least is payroll in the housing-related businesses are down 5 to 30%
around the system where we do have a lot of homebuilding kinds of
exposures. And this would include artisans and etc.
So not only do the payrolls go down, but also the estimates for the
revenues. So the coverages that are based on revenues are also down
similarly for homebuilders and those people that surround building.
And, of course, this is Florida. I mean this has happened before, not
possibly not quite as severely as it is this time.
Additionally nonadmitted markets are continuing to reduce our prices
and give better terms and conditions, and of course, I think Powell
is going to talk a little bit about that in a moment. One national
admitted carrier is now writing property on a limited basis but not
on the standard property form. It is on an inland marine form. So
they have got a certain amount of ability to move pricing around
based on what they want to do.

Umbrellas on a vanilla basis are down 20 to 30%, and Citizens now has
$3.5 billion in premiums. I think that is about 30 or maybe 35% of
the market. Jim is going to talk about that. And we are due for
another worker's comp rate decrease in January of I think it is 14 or
15%.
A general statement about employee benefits. If you go all around the
country, employee benefit is up 7 to 10%. Looking at national retail,
last quarter it was a positive 27. It is now a negative 8/10 of 1%.
In all areas the national retail experience continued downward rate
pressure. Looking at Georgia and South Carolina, property and
casualty is minus 10 to 20%. Nonadmitted is sometimes as much off of
as 40 to 45%.
Midmarket and worker's comp in Georgia is not quite as competitive as
South Carolina, which is very competitive. Coastal Virginia is down
10 to 20%. Casualty only accounts can really be crazy, 30% or more.
This is renewals and new business both. Marine is going south fast
when the two titans go after the same account. And the two titans are
two risk barriers who have a thing for each other, and when they get
after an account and each knows the other's competition, then you can
throw the prices out the window.
Regionals are most aggressive when you get away from Coastal
Virginia. New Jersey and New York City area, casualty and property is
very competitive. It is one of those things of 10 to 30% pending upon
the kind of account.
However, one difference if you look at Manhattan contractors, and we
have talked about that in the last two quarters, Manhattan
contractors have been flat, and now the good ones are down 10, maybe
12%. That is different from Q2. But if you are a Manhattan contractor
and you have a bad loss ratio, you're going to pay the price.
Some companies are limiting their coastal exposure on Long Island and
New Jersey. A product is flat unless it is light exposure. Some
umbrellas down 20 to 40%. Nonadmitted is very competitive more than
Q2. Condos and co-ops are resting around $0.09, which I think is
about as low as they can go, but who knows. Not much more to go.
Work comp rates may be down a little bit but not that much. Upstate
New York renewal pricing is more competitive than three to six months
ago. Now bear in mind upstate New York has been a haven for
profitability for P&C companies since the beginning of time.
Accounts, however, with losses the companies are doing some
underwriting. Accounts with losses are going to pay up. The state
fund is aggressive in worker's comp, and with the elimination of the
second injury fund being pretty much abolished, that has an impact on
pricing.
In Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, those areas, excluding Chicago
metro, those areas had the lowest rate to start with. So they are
down by percentages, but again it is pretty brutal in terms if you
compare prices for accounts, let's say, in Ohio and Indiana and
Illinois rural areas, and you compare them with some of the more
Metropolitan states there the base prices are much lower. Again, new
business to get a new account has got to be 30% lower.
Occasionally there will be an account that will move based on terms
and conditions. In the Gulf Coast, Louisiana, Texas and etc., the
economy is very strong. It is oil related. Property and nonadmitted
is going down 30% or more. Worker's comp is very competitive,
particularly in Texas. Texas, the oil boom is going on. The market in
Houston in that area other than coastal is as competitive and
possibly more competitive as it was in 1998 which was the depth of
the previous market. And one national company is in Texas buying
business.

Chicago metro, that is a little different ballgame. I talked about
Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin. You get into Chicago metro, those
contractors were flat, and they are down now 5% to 10%. Regionals in
the metro area are very competitive on contractors that are artisans
and have moderate to low hazards. On the heavier contractors, they
are not going to play the game.
In Western retail it was a negative 4.1%. It is now a negative 5.9.
More of the same, except California work comp might be, might be
starting to moderate, and that is not shown up in the pricing yet.
But there's all kinds of discussion about the rating bureau
recommended a 4 to 6% rate increase and the fact that loss costs are
rising, so maybe.
In Arizona the state worker's comp fund is getting more aggressive,
and that is making it more difficult to write new worker's comp
accounts. Renewals are down 10 or 15%, not quite as bad as
California. New got to be 25 to 30%.
New Mexico and Colorado, now here is something talking to our
officers, price reductions may have moderated? And I'm not sure
whether that is real or not. It might be just our book of business
for this quarter. You know construction is off 5% to 10%. If it is
nonresidential, it is minus -- these are pricing, pricing numbers --
minus 15 to 20. And the worker's comp may be steadying a little bit
in Colorado, and it is a little softer. Worker's comp is a little
softer in Mexico.
If you get outside in California, if you get outside of the Metro
areas like Los Angeles and San Diego, it is a little different
ballgame. Renewals may be down 5% to 10% in certain areas. Worker's
comp though down 15 to 20 still, still hoping when one changed. And
umbrellas are down about 15.
There is a little now change in Quake. Quake has been going up. Some
renewals now are coming in 5% to 10% below expiring. In Washington we
have sort of the same as it was last quarter. 5% to 15% down on
renewals. If the account is heavy in GL, then the companies are very
aggressive in that area. Marine is flat to down 5%, and our travel
business is off 5% to 10% on renewals.
So, Powell, would you like to talk about the other sector?
POWELL BROWN, PRESIDENT, BROWN & BROWN: Thank you. In special
programs, FIU, we would say more of the same. Revenue Q3 in '07 over
'06 is down about 50% as we anticipated. Citizens rates are about the
same as they were around $0.50, but they are erratic on the
interpretation of the rules. On a positive note, we can now write
condotels. Those are condos that have occupancy like a hotel where
they have nightly rentals, but it would have to be less than 50% of
the time. The downdraft there this quarter was slightly offset by the
performance of Proctor Financial, which as you know focuses on force
placed property, and they have sold more new accounts than last year
in Q3. We had lost an account, and we got a new account back.
Relative to brokerage, in the property arena, in coastal areas rates
are going down very substantially, 20 to 50%. Terms, this is in
Florida, from Jacksonville and down through the center part of the
state are under significant pressure with Wind deductibles lowering
to 2% and 3%, but they are typically holding at 5% Wind and coastal
areas. Limits now are doubling even with the reduction of rates. So
if you paid $100,000 last year for a $5 million primary limit, you
may pay 80,000 or $70,000 for a $10 million limit now in Q3. A
significant number of mid-term cancellations and rewrites.

Property Inland is cheap, cheap and getting cheaper. There is lots of
standard market activity there.
In terms of casualty business in the East, Eastern United States and
the Midwest, big automobile and residential contractors are typically
down up to 15%. Commercial contractors are down 25% or more. Regional
carriers are attacking the umbrella business around the country. In
the West residential contractors not only are their rates down
significantly, but payrolls are down significantly. And as we talked
about in Q2, that has significantly impacted the revenues of
international E&S.
Premiums though as a number, premiums under $100,000 in the West,
casualty are typically down 10 to 20%. Premiums over 100 to $150,000
and up are down 30% or more. The admitted market continues to be
very, very active in the West. Professional liability brokerage is
down 15 to 30% depending on the class of business. Binding authority
in Florida, rates are down 20 to 30%. We're seeing increased property
capacity which is afforded in those binding authorities. We're seeing
more admitted markets there, and Citizens continues to impact the
personal lines segment of Hull as we talked about in Q2.
One Citizens note that we have referred to in the past is in June of
this year Citizens ruled out a Wind only product for $1 million of
coverage, part of I think it is $10 million of total insured value.
On 9/1 of this year Citizens was allegedly or supposed to rollout a
$2.5 million all perils policy. That has not occurred yet. Apparently
that will now happen on 1/1 of '08, but we don't know anything about
it. But we know that it did not occur on 9/1, and we had alluded to
that in the past.
Binding authority outside of Florida rates are typically down 15 to
20%, and the standard market continues to be active there as they are
in Florida. Public entity business countrywide, depending on the loss
ratio, typically rates are down 0 to 20%. In the services area, we
continue to be very pleased with USIS and NewQuest; however, we would
point out that one of the clients of United Self Insured Services has
taken part of their business in-house, and the impact to us is
roughly a shortfall of about $400,000 of revenue a month in USIS.
In the professional national programs, dental professional rates
countrywide seem to be relatively flat, but the corresponding package
is typically down 0 to 10%. Lawyers, larger firms are down 20 to 30%,
and smaller firms are down typically 0 to 15%. CalSurance
professional rates are down 10 to 20%.
And with that, I will turn it over to Jim Henderson.
JIM HENDERSON, VICE CHAIRMAN & COO, BROWN & BROWN: Thank you, Powell,
and good morning. As reported in our earnings release, we're pleased
to report the increase in acquisition activity in 2007. The run-rate
for acquisitions, $81.8 million year-to-date. We believe that we
based upon current activity that number could exceed $100 million for
the year.
Of greater significance is the quality of the agencies and the people
that are joining Brown & Brown. 18 of the transactions announced
were retail agencies and two were wholesale brokerage.

The total national deal flow activity for insurance agency
acquisitions continues to increase for 2007 compared to the previous
two years. For 2005 there was 172 announced transactions, 184 for
2006 and the pace for 2007 could exceed 220. The increased activity
has come primarily from public brokers and from the three former
public brokers now acquired by public equity capital. There is no
significant change in activity for banks or for private agency deals.
There is some indication in the agency acquisition market that the
tighter credit terms will restrict or have an impact upon the growth
of the acquisitions by the private equity firms. We're pleased that
our cash flow and the access to credit will provide an advantage to
Brown & Brown for acquisitions. Agencies with revenues of less
than $5 million comprises a significant share of the intermediary
market. This size agency continues to be a target-rich environment
for Brown & Brown. We have a long-term success story of acquiring
and integrating the small and medium-sized agencies and will continue
to focus on this group and larger agencies.
To handle an increased number of transactions, we continue to expand
our agency prospecting teams and transaction capabilities.
Acquisitions are an ordinary part of our leadership's
responsibilities. As Hyatt mentioned to you, we wanted to give you an
update on some of the activities of the Florida Hurricane CAT Fund
and also Citizens Insurance Company to give you another angle and
view of the property pricing in the state of Florida.
First, the Hurricane CAT Fund. This entity is the phenomenon of the
1994 legislature. It was enacted to provide lower cost reinsurance to
the carriers for the state of Florida. Over the period of time the
following 10 years post-2000 -- 1994 to 2004 -- the CAT Fund
accumulated approximately $7.5 billion in cash. The '04 and '05
seasons will result in a payout of claims from the CAT Fund to
various carriers in the state of Florida of approximately $10
billion, leaving a $2 billion shortfall which has resulted in
assessments now adding on -- tacked onto policyholders throughout the
state.
In recent activity the CAT Fund has borrowed approximately $5 billion
in preevent cash funding to assist for any hurricanes in '07 and '08.
The legislature increased the payout capacity of the CAT Fund to a
new level of $27.5 billion with options below and above that amount.
Those options have not been picked up by the carriers.
The lower cost of reinsurance has been a factor in reducing property
pricing for carriers in Florida and principally for Citizens. The
largest reinsurer reinsured by Citizens or by the CAT Fund is
Citizens Insurance Company. I wanted to give you a few stats that has
been released on Citizens to share with you. The current policies
enforced for Citizens is $1.38 million. The forecast for 2007 is to
reach approximately $1.58 million, and for 2008 they are forecasting
a growth to two rating policies.
There has been a decrease in the rate of growth, although Citizens
continues to grow at a fast clip. The premiums enforced for Citizens
currently is reported as $3.55 billion in annualized premium. The
market share have announced for the property as of June 30 of '07 is
that Citizens now represents 30% of the property market for the
state.

On the financial side for Citizens, the current surplus level for
Citizens based upon their reserving program represents a $1.2 billion
surplus within Citizens. The amount's PML, the probable maximum loss
for Citizens, and this announcement was associated with a 100 years'
forecast, not the 250 of which most carriers are allowed or required
to reserve. The PML amount was $24.5 billion.
Citizens retention before recovery from the Florida CAT Fund, so now
it is at $1.8 billion, and their recovery from the CAT Fund is
approximately $8 billion. Citizens rates remained frozen through '07
into '08 to be reviewed and adjusted to market conditions on January
1 of '09.
The assessment accumulations in Citizens under a 2004/2005 storm
scenario could result in assessments to Citizens policyholders
representing anywhere from 80 to 90% of their current premium levels.
The growing concern about the accumulation of values given the below
market pricing conditions for Citizens, that concern has not been
affected and a growth of values of a PML now that makes the
assessment capability for Citizens and for the CAT Fund. And this has
been certainly talked about by CFO Sink in terms of ways to restrict
Citizens growth and restrict the growth of the Florida CAT Fund. So
that is kind of an update of those two entities and its impact upon
the Florida property market.
At this time I turn it back over to Hyatt for closing comments and
then open for questions.
HYATT BROWN: Okay. Thanks, Jim. Good report. Relative to the forecast
for the next quarter, 0 to 5% growth excluding Florida. 0 to 5%
growth excluding Florida.
So now, Chris, we will open up the phone for any questions.
OPERATOR: (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Keith Walsh, Citigroup.
KEITH WALSH, ANALYST, CITIGROUP: Just a couple of questions. First, I
appreciate the explanation about Florida. But I guess I was surprised
like everyone else it deteriorated so quickly. Besides pricing what
are the levers that you can pull to fix this, and do we enter a
period of easier growth comps as we get into 2008? And then I have a
follow-up.
HYATT BROWN: Well, I think your easier growth comps is probably
correct. We're going through a maelstrom this year that has never
occurred before in Florida. And so we -- to get into what I would
call a steady-state, we're probably going to be the second quarter of
next year. So from now through the end of the fourth quarter and into
the first quarter, we are still going to be having a very difficult
kind of marketplace.
Now there are lots of opportunities to write new business. Don't ever
realize that Florida is not a growth state; Florida is a growth
state. And, of course, what happens is that we do have some great
programs that are using -- that we are using to expand in Florida.
But the bottom line is that probably casualty is going to continue to
go South in Florida because it has not gone South as much as it had
in other parts of the country, and everyone is thinking well no
hurricanes this year. And so next year it is 12 months off. Don't
worry about it until then.

So does that answer the question?
KEITH WALSH: Yes, that is helpful. And then I guess the second
question I have, just looking at the $13.1 million year-to-date, I
guess it was $8.6 million in the quarter of books of business that
you have sold, I mean that is by far and away the largest number I
have seen in my models here going back several years. What exactly is
driving that? Are these underperforming blocks of business?
HYATT BROWN: Well, what happens when you have a market that is -- the
pricing is declining where you have people who have sold books of
business or agencies to them -- to us, sometimes they get a little
enamored with not having to work too hard. And, therefore, things
start to deteriorate a little bit, and it becomes apparent that it
might be better for us to part.
The other thing that we are always doing is we are always looking for
slices of business that are underperforming. Now an example of that
would be the trucking business. Trucking business, unless it is high
hazard trucking for which we have none of at the moment, that is
going to be a max 15 to 20% margin and we are not going to do 15 to
20% margin business. So all of those kinds of things are constantly
going on within our organization.
You see each of our profit centers because it is the income of the
leader of that profit center is dependent upon growing the profits
and the margins. They are constantly looking for ways to a) write
more business and b) make a higher margin on those lines that they
are already writing. And, of course, as we become more sophisticated
across the Company and country about lines that are the most
profitable, our people are responding. And so in this kind of market,
it is a good time to take a look at all of those areas, and in a
softer market if you have any kind of slice of business that has been
kind of overlooked because you say, well, it is not doing quite so
well but we're doing well, that all of a sudden the focus is upon
those slices, and we're making those decisions as we go forward.
OPERATOR: Chuck Hamilton, FTN Midwest.
CHUCK HAMILTON, ANALYST, FTN MIDWEST: Two questions for you this
morning. The first question I guess deals with supplemental
commissions. I see that in second quarter '07 that you recorded a
little bit more than $3.2 million in that quarter. Of the net
commissions and fees this quarter, do you know how much was related
to supplementals?
CORY WALKER: Yes, it was $1.5 million.
CHUCK HAMILTON: 1.5. And, of course, that is included then in your
growth calculations for organic revenue?
CORY WALKER: That is correct.
CHUCK HAMILTON: Okay. And I know you folks don't look at this, but
maybe you've got a sense of it is when we take a look year-over-year
to the quarter, we are showing a 12% increase in other operating
expenses. Do you have a sense what percentage of that is organic
expense growth that is stripping out the effect of bringing in the
acquisitions and also the sales of these books of business as well?

CORY WALKER: Well, talk about on the first part, there is -- most of
the expenses are coming in from the acquisition. Most of them are not
normally at our same margins. But there is no one particular line
item that is really out of whack. And, as I kind of described, if you
take out the book of business sales, it is about $1 million worth of
costs that are in there, but really it is just all over the board,
various costs. And it is really they went up a little bit, but it is
mainly the softer revenues that kind of showed the margins up. I am
not sure if I understood the second part of your question.
CHUCK HAMILTON: Right. I guess it is just adjusting the expense
growth to also include the fact that you have taken out expenses with
the sale of books of business, say the producer's expenses.
CORY WALKER: Yes but that does not show up quite as quickly because
you're only talking about the one month of revenue. And so that would
be marginal.
CHUCK HAMILTON: And I guess just the last part of that would be with
the gain on books of -- excuse me, gain on the sale of books of
business of $8.6 million, do you have a sense how much that
translates into revenues that will not appear in future periods, the
annualized revenues that have been foregone with that sale?
CORY WALKER: Yes, it is about 4, $4.5 million worth of annualized
revenues. And the total gain of that was only about $7.2 million a
quarter.
HYATT BROWN: I think also to give you a little more light around the
issue of acquisitions, in many cases, maybe not most but in many, we
do have moving expenses. For instance, we acquired recently the
JPMorgan personal lines operation, which is in a suburb of
Wilmington, Delaware. It is in their I guess datacenter. So we had to
move immediately 60 days and move to a new location, etc., etc. That
all is a -- those are the kind of expenses that are onetime expenses,
but we have to absorb them anyway. That happens in almost every --
some of those kinds of expenses happen in almost every acquisition.
CHUCK HAMILTON: Okay. I was just trying to get the sense since you
are showing organic revenue growth, would it not be great to be able
to see organic expense growth so that we could then monitor the
ongoing expenses compared to the ongoing revenue strain?
CORY WALKER: Right.
OPERATOR: Mike Grasher, Piper Jaffray.
MIKE GRASHER, ANALYST, PIPER JAFFRAY: Hyatt and I guess Cory had in
his national remarks mentioned the 15 years toughest environment. As
you look at today's marketplace, is this the most difficult
environment that you can remember, or do you see any difference in
today's market compared to say '98, '99 time period?
HYATT BROWN: Well, if you look at just the market -- forget, the
Florida situation -- then it is about like '98, '99 and we have also
seen back in really '82, '83 -- that is before most of you all were
born, so we will not go into that -- but yes, we have seen this
before.

Now the Florida situation is really an outgrowth of the fact in two
years we had very abnormal hurricane activity which forced the prices
up very substantially, and then no hurricane activity one year and
hopefully none this year. And so all of a sudden you have a big up
and a big down. And the big down, instead of being a more sort of
like a pyramid where you're going down the side of the pyramid, a
level sort of reduction. It was a 50% reduction or 60% reduction
overnight because of Citizens. So that is an issue that we just never
had faced before.
MIKE GRASHER: Understood. But then in terms of the carriers
themselves, the underwriters, are they behaving any differently
across the country than what you would have expected?
HYATT BROWN: I think generally speaking I think that underwriters are
probably in a little better position today than in '98 and '99 to
make underwriting decisions on pricing. And one of the reasons is
that I think the systems are a little more effective and efficient.
The other thing, though, that makes this a difficult call is, if you
look at a large group of the risk-bearers as reported in business
insurance, you will see a combined loss and expense ratio of about 90
to 92%. That has never happened before, but it is because of
Sarbanes-Oxley.
And there are not redundant reserves, even though some of those
reserves are being released into the income stream now, which creates
this very, very good combined loss and expense ratio. However, at a
recent meeting at the Greenbrier, I was very surprised to hear a
couple of companies that are well-known companies and well-run
companies and regional in nature indicating that they thought that
this year they would have reasonably close to 100% combined. I was
very surprised at that. Now the risk-bearers are saying that because
of Sarbanes-Oxley the turn is going to be a lot faster than in the
past. And I'm not convinced of that, frankly.
MIKE GRASHER: Interesting. And then if you look at government
intervention and obviously this applies the Florida a great deal but
across the country with California and I think you mentioned Arizona
and New York being involved in worker's comp as well, aside from
worker's comp, has there been so much government intervention
historically?
HYATT BROWN: No, there is really not.
CHUCK HAMILTON: Relative to today.
HYATT BROWN: Yes, the market is working quite well. Really what
happened is there is really less governmental intervention. As an
example, a monopolistic state was Nevada up until about four or five
years ago. They then took the state fund and made it into a nonprofit
and now it is a profit-making organization I believe, and they are
writing worker's comp like crazy, and of course, they are using
agents.
Another monopolistic state, West Virginia, that had been monopolistic
forever was losing their ears and hat and teacup in the fund. And so
they walled off the fund, created a new company, I think the name of
which is Brickyard, and it is now a not-for-profit in West Virginia,
and agents and brokers are accessing that market. And next year
anybody can come in.

So there is a movement towards having a competitive marketplace. When
you have a crisis situation and you get people in political positions
where they think they have to respond because of the screaming and
yelling of the populace like we have in Florida, then all of a sudden
you're going to have a short-term Neanderthal approach.
Now has this happened before? It did. In the '60s and '70s, the same
thing happened on automobile liability insurance, and there was a
huge fight over whether or not we would have no-fault liability. And
what was then called the assigned risk plan for auto liability grew
by leaps and bounds, and everybody was gripping and complaining.
Well, over a period of time, the marketplace smoothed it out, and now
profit and liability for private passenger is very, very competitive
and has been for 10 years. So you have these peaks and valleys. Where
you have a catastrophe exposure and the catastrophe exposure is in
the United States as I see it is Quake in California and it is Wind
along the coastal areas from Brownsville all the way to probably New
York City. And, of course, the most difficult and the scariest
catastrophe exposure is a CAT four, level four hurricane coming into
the bottom end of Manhattan.
So but that is part of why they are -- the insurance companies are in
the risk bearing business. They are in business to transfer risk and
to take risk.
MIKE GRASHER: Sure. And I wanted to transfer to Jim and just ask a
question on the acquisitions given the market. Has there been a surge
in the pipeline due to the market, or has the pipeline remained
stable in terms of opportunity? I mean it seems like this quarter and
even your comments potentially reaching $100 million do reflect an
increasing opportunity. Can you speak a little bit more about this?
JIM HENDERSON: Yes, there does seem to be an increased surge in the
activity. If you -- the private conversations with those that are
selling, you can -- you have got demographics involved. You have got
markets involved. Demographics, the baby boomers that are looking at
what do I do now? The family does not want to take the business over.
The people inside really cannot buy it.
So this is one of those conditions that we feel like that is creating
a lot more activity. So we are pleased with the -- we always have a
certain amount of flow. There seems to be more than last year. We
also are, in fact, we're looking at more of deals and building our
infrastructure to go visit and talk with more people. Because I think
one of the safest plays we have for our shareholders is to continue
to look at the small deals. They are very accretive. They really fit
well. They blend well with our culture. So we will continue to focus
on that, not exclusively away from margins. So yes, I think we are
encouraged by the activity flow.
The history, our 30-year history, is about one-third organic and
two-third by acquisition. And we don't really see that long-term
changing. Near-term when organic is certainly a challenge by the
market and by the government, we are, frankly, very pleased that we
have another option to go create growth.
MIKE GRASHER: Then just a final question or follow-up on that. How
much of the smaller activity acquisition-wise is being driven by the
potential for change in the capital gains?

JIM HENDERSON: Well, it definitely comes up in discussions with the
sellers. When they are looking at the 15% rate and a lot of the
national press in Canada indicates that they feel that that rate is
unfair. So there is a -- it is coming up in conversation and timing
matters that is it a component by itself? No, but it certainly is a
factor that is encouraging now versus later.
OPERATOR: Meyer Shields, Stifel Nicolaus.
MEYER SHIELDS, ANALYST, STIFEL NICOLAUS: If we look at I guess recent
acquisition by you folks, by Hilb and by Hub, there have been a fair
number of banks that have been divesting their insurance operations.
Is that a trend, or are those just a number of one-off issues?
HYATT BROWN: Well, I think it is a trend. What is happening is banks
are starting to vomit up their insurance agency operations, and there
are a couple of banks who are doing a very good job. But, for the
most part, there is a substantial difference in culture.
There is always the Board of Directors being concerned about the
specter of tide house evil. And if a bank ever gets nailed on tying
credit to the selling of insurance, the class-action impact of that
would be devastating. It would be more money than they make from an
insurance agency operation in 1000 years.
So all of that does have an impact. Of course, what is happening
right now is there are a number of banks that are divesting that are
in the marketplace as we speak. And we have actually acquired the
JPMorgan one as you know. We have acquired a small amount in Kentucky
about a year ago or so, and we made an offer on another one in the
Southeast, and it was sold internally. And then, of course, you know
HRH bought Bank of America, and then there is a whole bunch of things
going on.
So, as time goes along, I think we're going to continue to see more
of that. I think there's another situation that is occurring where a
bank has just bought another bank in the Southeast, and apparently
there's some kind of divestiture concern. And so those are
opportunities for us, and they are opportunities for other people
too.
MEYER SHIELDS: That is very helpful. Switching gears a little bit,
has there been an issue with employee turnover? Is that getting worse
over the past couple of years for you folks?
HYATT BROWN: No, the one thing about having a market like this it
does separate the good people sometimes from the people that are not
quite as good because you have to be on your toes. Every account has
to be very, very carefully handled. And so that's not just at the
producer level. It has to do with the marketing level. It has to do
with the customer service representative. It is the whole team.
So what we're constantly doing is one of the reasons that we have the
kind of margins that we have is that we try to have the very best
people and try to give them additional training.
Now we have something called Brown & Brown University, which has
been going now for about three years? (multiple speakers) Four years.
And it has been very beneficial in helping to upgrade our people in
the retail P&C area, and we are now getting ready to look to see
how we can do this in the brokerage or wholesale area.

As we go forward, the ability to run our model is very similar to the
ability of a very well coached athletic team, taking -- let's take a
football team -- where they have a fairly sophisticated game plan,
offensive game plan. Ours is really kind of like that. And very good
people can score lots of touchdowns in our model, but they have got
to be willing to follow the model itself and to follow the leadership
that has gone before them that has shown the way. In the case of
turnover, I don't think we have any greater turnover today than we
normally have.
MEYER SHIELDS: And I guess one last question. In terms of the office
leadership, are you comfortable with the people you have in force
now?
HYATT BROWN: Well, we always have turnover in leadership, and that
has to do with several reasons. We have 163 or 164 offices. And so of
the 163, 164, how many people are considering retiring, let's say, in
one or two years or three years. Well, there are several, and so we
have to then go forward and find someone. They have to start bringing
on someone who will take over their position, and we have to help
them grow that individual.
And then there are just people who all of a sudden one day, say, gosh
I think I'm just going to walk out and go to to the beach.
So we do have some turnover. But generally speaking, our people, our
leadership capital is the strongest today that it has ever been.
OPERATOR: Doug Mewhirter, Ferris, Baker Watts.
DOUG MEWHIRTER, ANALYST, FERRIS, BAKER WATTS: I have two questions.
The first is I noticed obviously your Florida retail is very
disappointing, and also you mentioned that FIU was also still very
soft for obvious reasons. But given the FIUs within special programs,
and correct me if I'm wrong, but special programs showed very
positive overall organic growth. What seemed to be picking up the
slack?
CORY WALKER: It was a combination of one, Proctor Financial that we
talked about, and we had some might nice growth in public entity.
DOUG MEWHIRTER: Okay. And the second question, because the
commissions seem to be I guess restructuring and the nature of them
are restructuring, do you think, Cory, that contingents may be less
frontloaded as they have in the past, and we see more quarters with
unusually large amounts in the second, third and fourth quarter as
opposed to just getting it all in the first quarter?
CORY WALKER: The short answer is no. And, first of all, there is
really only three, maybe four carriers with Hartford are the only
ones that I'm aware of that are restructuring, and it is all tied to
their previous settlements. I do not see or have heard of any other
insurance carriers of the other 900 that we deal with that they would
go to a guaranteed supplemental commission. So that takes care of
that. The rest of the contingents should fall in the normal period of
time.
Now the reason why we had such a larger number of contingents in the
third quarter relates primarily to the wholesale marketplace where a
lot of those carriers have June 30 type year-ends. And so it was just
-- they had good years this past year, and so the contingents were
up. So there really overall will not be much of a change in the
normal flow of those contingent commissions.

HYATT BROWN: Doug, I think to piggyback on that, there's another
issue here, and that is that when insurance carriers are making lots
of money, our contingent commissions go up as a percentage of our
revenue. When prices start to rise as they do when losses mount for
risk-bearers, generally our contingents are flat or down, but we grow
the other end of the spectrum, which is the organic growth. So it is
kind of a balancing act.
OPERATOR: Matthew Heimermann, JPMorgan Securities.
KEITH ALEXANDER, ANALYST, JPMORGAN SECURITIES: This is actually Keith
Alexander calling on Matt's behalf. I just have one follow-up
question. I was wondering if you guys could discuss how changes in
price and exposure have possibly lead to any changes in compensation
or commission ratios or how these three factors are moving on a
relative basis?
JIM HENDERSON: Well, first of all, relative to commissions from
companies, the commissions are the same. However, we're getting some
additional commissions from some companies, and it is kind of
sporadic and it is not across the country. But that is probably going
to become a little more prevalent as they continue to cut the prices.
So that is the top end. In terms of the way we are paying people,
there is no difference.
OPERATOR: (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). John Fox, Fenimore Asset
Management.
JOHN FOX, ANALYST, FENIMORE ASSET MANAGEMENT: I just had a question
for Powell. If you have the dollar amounts for FIU this quarter and
last year?
POWELL BROWN: John, last year FIU had about (multiple speakers) 4.2,
and this year it was a just a little over $2 million. So there was
roughly a $2.1 million downdraft in the third quarter.
JOHN FOX: Great. And then for Jim, I cannot ever remember any type of
projection or anything about acquisitions before. But are you telling
us to expect $100 million or just the pipeline looks good, or what is
the message there?
JIM HENDERSON: That is just a run-rate, John, and we never have
forecasts nor --
JOHN FOX: So that is annualizing the current run-rate.
JIM HENDERSON: Yes, the kind of run-rate, that is right. They are
never done until they are done.
OPERATOR: Nik Fisken, Stephens Inc.
NIK FISKEN, ANALYST, STEPHENS INC.: How much of Florida is casualty?
JIM HENDERSON: I don't know. You have got --
NIK FISKEN: Just kind of goalpost it if you can.
JIM HENDERSON: Well, it would be a scientific wild ass guess.
(multiple speakers). Don't forget you have got employee benefits. You
have got personal lines. You have got marine. So let's say, employee
benefit, it was about $200 million. Casualty, you're talking about
Florida only? Is that right?

NIK FISKEN: Correct.
HYATT BROWN: Maybe 40%. But that is kind of a guess. We would have to
look at it.
NIK FISKEN: Okay. Cory, what is our outlook for contingents for
fourth quarter?
CORY WALKER: Right now it should be well less than $1 million, maybe
$0.5 million from what we know right now.
NIK FISKEN: And then if you look at the four underwriters that are
paying you these guaranteed contingents, do you know how much they
paid you last year in the form of the regular way contingents?
CORY WALKER: It was about the same amount. It was around $6 million
in total contingents. And so right now, on the run-rate right now,
we're running 6, 6.5. So it is almost a wash.
NIK FISKEN: And then the last question for Hyatt, if you look at '08,
you guys are pretty confident you guys can hit that part of B-40
goal? I'm wondering more on the 40%.
HYATT BROWN: Well, I will tell you right now we have never normalized
earnings. So, for instance, whenever we had the numbers last year
where we had a $5.8 million payment to the folks in Tallahassee, we
did not normalize those in our own thinking. So this year, including
the Rock-Tenn sales, we're probably going to be 40% in terms of the
margins. And I think Wall Street has us falling a little below the B.
And so is it going to be $15 million below B? I don't know, but that
is what some of the Wall Street estimates are as I understand that.
And what we are in the process of doing, as a matter of fact, is our
leadership meetings start Wednesday, and we're going to talk about
the next intermediate goal. And because on a rolling 12 sometime in
the not too far distant future, we're going to be at the B. So we
will declare a victory and then go to the next intermediate goal, and
we don't know exactly what that is going to be. But I think you can
probably figure it out by just thinking about it.
NIK FISKEN: So if I look at margins year on year, you are down about
80 bips just on the comp and other op expense? Is there any reason
that should not continue?
HYATT BROWN: Well, it depends. It might continue; it might not. So if
you look back at our history and, of course, you cannot look at one
quarter or maybe any six months and say, it is up or down. We
continuously accept for the cases -- I am talking about pretax now
and you are thinking about EBITDA -- except for the cases where there
was a change in the amortization from 20 to 15 years, our pretax has
gone up fairly evenly. So we think that there is still upward
mobility, and we're going to see if we cannot get there.
JIM HENDERSON: This is Jim. If you look at the acquisition activity
and as that comes in, unless it matches obviously the current rate,
there is some impact on margins from the acquisitions. And although
they come in at a very high rate, some of them are not going to come
in at the long established Brown & Brown rate.

OPERATOR: It appears there are no further questions at this time. I
would like to turn the conference back over to you for additional or
closing remarks.
HYATT BROWN: Okay. That is all we have, and so good luck, everyone,
and we will see you in January.
OPERATOR: This concludes today's conference. We do appreciate your
participation. You may now disconnect.
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