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OPERATOR: Good day and welcome to the Trane Company's first quarter
2008 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded.
At this time for opening remarks and introductions I would like to
turn the call over to the Vice President of Strategic Planning and
Investor Relations Mr. Bruce Fisher. Please go ahead sir.
BRUCE FISHER, VP, STRATEGIC PLANNING, IR, TRANE INC.: Thank you. Good
morning everyone, and welcome to Trane's conference call to discuss
our first quarter results and full year forecast. With us this
morning, as is our custom are Fred Poses; our Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer; and Peter D'Aloia, our Chief Financial Officer.
Pete will review our first quarter performance and our outlook for
the second quarter. Fred will then share his perspective ad our
outlook for the 2008 full year. We will then open the lines for your
questions.
Charts that follow the comments we will make this morning are posted
on our website. The charts are under the heading Trane's first
quarter 2008 results. As shown on chart number 2 that's posted on the
website certain forward-looking statements that we will make today
are based on management's good faith expectations and belief
concerning future developments. Actual results as you know may differ
materially from these expectations as a result of many factors,
relevant examples of which are set forth in the Company's 2007 annual
report on Form 10-K and in the managements discussion and analysis
section of the Company's quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and 2007
annual report to shareholders. These remarks also contain certain
non-GAAP financial measures as that term is defined by the SEC.
Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most
comparable GAAP measure are included in reconciliation charts which
are attached with the charts that we will discuss this morning. So
with that I would like to ask Pete to start us off with his comments.
PETE D'ALOIA, SVP, CFO, TRANE INC.: Thank you Bruce. Good morning
everyone. You will notice that the earnings release we issued this
morning is oriented to GAAP results. The comments I'll make and the
charts that follow along with them contain both GAAP and adjusted
numbers. Since we believe that you will gain a fuller understanding
of our underlying business performance by adjusting for FX,
streamlining, tax items and merger costs. I will also bridge between
GAAP and adjusted results so you can see how the two approaches
compare. So please turn to chart number three, which summarizes the
highlights for the first quarter.
Overall Trane sales were up 6% reported and up 4% excluding foreign
exchange. Driven by growth in commercial sales which hit a new first
quarter record. Global commercial air conditioning orders were up 7%
and our backlog increased 3% year over year. Our price initiatives
continue to yield returns as we achieved over 2% price increases year
over year which is important as commodities remain high. Adjusted
segment margins were 9.2%, down 60 basis points versus last year.
Sales and margins improved strongly in commercial while residential
dealt with continued difficult market conditions.

Adjusted EBIT was $115 million in line with our guidance and was down
2% versus last year. Adjusted EBIT margins were 6.7%, down 60 basis
points versus the first quarter of 2007. Earnings per share for Trane
were $0.35 on an adjusted basis, up 22% year over year and $0.01
above the Consensus estimate. Free cash flow for the total Company
was a use of $70 million for the quarter, in line with expectations
as we build inventory for the upcoming season. We ended the quarter
with $356 million of net debt. Additionally in the first quarter we
made progress towards completing the sale of the Company's Ingersoll
Rand in the second quarter by filing the S4 registration statement
with the SEC and we secured all other regulatory approvals required
to close the deal. We set April 23, as the record date for Trane
shareholders who will vote on the merger and we expect our Board to
set Trane's second quarter dividend record and payment dates for
sometime in May prior to the anticipated closing of the merger with
Ingersoll Rand.
We continue to make good progress on integration planning with
Ingersoll Rand and we are putting plans in place to make the process
as smooth as possible and to achieve targeted synergies. Overall, we
continue to demonstrate momentum in commercial while dealing with a
challenging housing market.
Let's take a look at how Trane performed in the first quarter in a
little more detail. Chart 4 shows sales for our Trane air
conditioning systems and services business. Before I go through the
Trane results I'd like to first give you a brief market overview.
I'll review the U.S. commercial equipment market first. For the
quarter commercial equipment market shipments in the U.S. were up low
to mid-single digits year over year. Both the applied and the large
commercial unitary markets had mid to high single digit growth. While
the overall U.S. commercial markets continued to grow in the quarter,
we did see some softening in the light commercial unitary market
which was flat year over year. International unitary and applied
markets continue to grow in the mid-single digit rates in aggregate
excluding foreign exchange. So overall, we would say U.S. growth
slowed to low to mid-single digits while the global commercial
equipment markets continue to show mid-single digit growth. That's a
quick overview of the market, let's turn to -- let's review Trane's
results.
The data on chart number four is shown both on a reported basis and
adjusted for foreign exchange. To give you a better view of Trane's
organic growth. As you can see, we had a good quarter in commercial
air conditioning where our combined equipment, systems and services
sales were up 8% excluding foreign exchange. Commercial, global
commercial equipment and systems representing 48% of our total HVAC
sales grew 3% in the first quarter. Applied global equipment sales
were up 1% as Europe and the Middle East continue to show strength
while the Americas and Asia were flat to down slightly. Our global
commercial unitary sales grew 5% with strong performance in Europe
and the Middle East and low mid-single digit growth in the Americas
and Asia.
In the U.S. we experienced varying performance by vertical markets.
We saw strong growth in lodging, government and manufacturing. Office
and education segments were flattish and health care and retail had
negative growth. We also absorbed a slow down, but not cancellation
of some U.S. projects during the quarter. It's difficult to determine
whether this was the result of concerns about the U.S. economy,
excuse me, the credit situation or just a pause in activity. For the
quarter America's equipment and systems sales were up only 1%. Sales
in the rest of the world grew 6% yielding 3% growth for total
commercial equipment and systems.

Next I'll review our commercial global parts, services and solutions
business shown as global service and related on the chart. This part
of our business represents about 35 -- 31% of our total sales and
continues to perform very well growing 18% in the quarter. This
growth rate significantly surpassed the high end of our historical
high single, low double digit performance and comes on top of 15%
growth in 2007. The strong performance is a result of the successful
execution of an expanded service initiative we began in 2006. As we
outlined in last quarter's conference call we sharpened our focus on
three objectives, capturing more new service agreements on both
existing and new equipment systems and controls, broadening our
service offerings to provide significant energy efficiency savings,
and get paid to extend the life of HVAC equipment in the field. And
expanding our capability to deliver more service on a global basis by
putting more sales and service people in the field. And helping them
be more productive and effective. These programs are helping us
sustain growth rates above our historic 9 to 11% growth.
We're also benefiting from favorable legislation and market
conditions. Primarily aging infrastructure and rising energy costs to
deliver strong revenue growth in areas like performance contracting.
As you recall the global market for HVAC parts, controls, contracting
and services is significantly larger than equipment and offers us a
real opportunity to grow and for growth independent of equipment.
These investments in our contracting and service business and the
ones we are making to develop the market develop and market new
product and systems offerings are paying off as demonstrated by our
strong sales growth.
Now let's turn to the residential business, which represented about
21% of our total business. First, let's review the residential
market. We estimate that industry shipments to new construction were
down in the range of 25% in the quarter while replacement unit
shipments showed some softness. These data show how difficult the
residential market continues to be. In the quarter we estimate that
compressive bearing unit shipments for the total market were down 8
to 10% versus the first quarter of 2007. We also tracked the more
inclusive motor bearing unit market which includes compressive
bearing units, furnaces, and air handlers. The total motor bearing
unit market was down 12 to 13%.
Now let's review the sales performance on residential air
conditioning business. For the quarter our residential product sales
were down 8% year over year. Here is the composition of our sales.
Volume was down about 11 points, a bit better performance than the
total motor bearing unit market. Price was flat and mix added 3
points from increased sales of both 14 tier and above air
conditioning units and our variable speed and communicating furnaces.
We continue to prove our industry leading sales of high efficiency
units and systems. So overall for the quarter Trane had sales growth
of 6% reported and 4% foreign exchange driven by our continued very
strong service growth and broad global presence in commercial
equipment, systems and services.
Let's turn to orders and backlog, which are shown on chart number 5.
For the quarter global commercial orders overall were healthy, up 7%.
Order pacing America slowed to 3% after an unsustainably strong pace
in the fourth quarter. In the Americas contracting parts service and
controls were strong, up double digits. Equipment orders were down
single digits, influenced by a pause we saw early in the quarter as
well as a timing of price increases in 2007. For comparison orders
were up 31% in the first quarter of 2007. International, which
represents one-third of our commercial sales and roughly 25% of total
Trane sales continues to grow. Orders were up 17% in the quarter for
foreign exchange. We saw 11% growth in Europe and the Middle East and
24% growth in Asia.

As I mentioned we did see softening in orders in the U.S. early in
the quarter. Orders slowed in January and February, but have since
picked up. We exited the quarter with good order growth as both March
and April U.S. orders together are up 10% plus year over year.
Commercial backlog continues to grow on a global basis. We ended the
quarter with a global backlog of over $1 billion, a record driven by
strong performance in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, partially
offset by a decline in the Americas.
Contracting backlog which is additive to the backlog number we
published is also at historically high first quarter levels, up
double digits and the U.S. which accounts for about 80% of the
contracting, global contracting revenues is on track to exceed our
plan for the year. We continue to see prequote activity as well as
request for bids that would support continued U.S. sales growth in
2008. Less than we had in our plan for equipment and systems but more
than we had anticipated in service. Outside the U.S. activity
continues to be strong and at levels we built into our plan. So in
summary, we would say that our orders and backlog are at levels that
support continued growth on a global basis.
Please turn to chart number 6, which shows Trane's financial results
for the first quarter and a comparison to last year. This
presentation of our financials follows our traditional approach
highlighting segment income corporate and other at EBIT. We think
it's a useful way to better understand our business performance. EBIT
is a useful profit measure which is added to Ingersoll Rand's
earnings before interest and taxes. As I mentioned sales were a first
quarter record, over $1.7 billion, up 6% reported and up 4% when
adjusted for FX. Segment income was flat with last year and segment
margins were 9.2%, down 60 basis points in local currency year over
year. Segment income and margin benefited from strong commercial
volume and price and quantity sales of high efficiency residential
products. New investments and low residential volume had a negative
impact.
This chart also shows all the items below segment income down to
earnings per share, picking highlights net interest expense was $14
million lower on $3 million higher interest income and $11 million
lower interest expense from investing the bath and kitchen sales
proceeds. Corporate and other and equity income was $2 million worse,
primarily because of a currency exchange loss incurred in the first
quarter partially offset by lower corporate head count and related
cost. While corporate expenses were down over $2 million this
reduction doesn't reflect further actions we would have taken to
bring our corporate structure in line with the size of Trane as a
single focus independent Company. The exchange loss was the result of
U.S. dollars accumulating in a euro denominated entity during the
quarter. The offset for this loss is on our balance sheet, so it has
no economic impact on the Company.
Adjusted EBIT was down 2% in the middle of our guidance range.
Without the currency loss adjusted EBIT would have been up 2%
exceeding the range we gave in our fourth quarter call. Our tax rate
was 32.9%, 340 basis points lower versus last year reflecting a
higher proportion of foreign income and tax planning. We had some
streamlining actions this year as well as a favorable tax item and
merger related costs. Income from continuing operations on a reported
basis was $66 million, up 15% year over year.

On an adjusted basis income from continuing operations was up 18%,
above our guidance range of 5 to 15%. Earnings per share was $0.35,
up 22% after adjusting for streamlining tax and merger related costs.
Diluted shares were 200 million for the quarter. Overall considering
the economic situation in the United States we had a good quarter
with sales up 6% and adjusted earnings per share up 22%.
Turning to chart number seven, I'll now walk you through an analysis
of our quarterly change in earnings per share for Trane and how that
compares to the first quarter 2007 results. Earnings per share on a
continuing operations basis for the first quarter of 2007 was $0.28
per share. In the first quarter 2008 on the same basis EPS was $0.33.
Let's review the key drivers. Our reported sales growth was 6% and
contributed $0.11 to our earnings growth. Price was the main
contributor as volume increases in commercial were essentially offset
by increases in residential. Commodity costs including energy and
logistics hurt us by $0.07 for the quarter. The sum of our materials
management, Six Sigma and other productivity improved earnings by
$0.08 year over year. Labor and other cost increases impacted
earnings by $0.06. We made additional investments in our business
worth $0.05 primarily for new product development and marketing
programs. Other items had a net impact on earnings of $0.06 positive
reflecting the impact of lower net interest, lower tax rate, lower
corporate and other, and lower share count. Partially offset by the
residential inventory related costs we talked about on the fourth
quarter call and the impact of the unfavorable FX I mentioned
earlier. The net impact of streamlining expenses, tax items and
merger released costs was $0.02.
In summary, this explains our change in the first quarter reported
earnings per share, adjusted earnings per share excludes the items
listed in item 7 on the chart and was $0.35. We continue to achieve
growth in our commercial business and high end residential products
and we continue to invest in the future.
Chart number eight shows our outlook for the second quarter of 2008.
Both our second quarter and full year 2008 outlook assumes that Trane
is an independent Company for the year, that there are no share
repurchases. We anticipated sales growth of 2 to 4% in the second
quarter with continued strength in commercial and a sales decline in
residential. EBIT is expected to be roughly flat year-over-year as we
benefit from higher commercial sales, but continue to work through a
tough residential market. We have instituted cost control programs in
both commercial and residential and we are reviewing further belt
tightening actions while continuing to fund investments which are
essential to our continued future growth.
Income from continuing operations is expected to be up in the range
of 5 to 10% as we benefit from lower interest expense and an
effective tax rate in the range of 33%, about 1 point lower than last
year. I'll turn the discussion over to Fred who will review our 2008
full year outlook and give you his perspective on our performance,
position and potential. Fred.
FRED POSES, CHAIRMAN, CEO, TRANE INC.: Thanks Pete and good morning.
If you turn to page nine, that's the page we're on, it talks about
our growth and the sales and the markets that we play in. To put it
in perspective we started the year expecting that our sales growth
would be 5 to 6% for the total Company.

Let me take you through this page starting on the top with our
commercial equipment and by the way, these are excluding foreign
exchange. When we entered the year we knew that the commercial
equipment market in the Americas would be less robust than 2007. You
can see in 2007 some 17%. We thought we were relatively conservative
at 6%. I would say we'd probably take that down a little bit now to 3
to 4%. I think that's colored a little bit by the first two months of
the year and maybe not fully colored by the second two months, April,
March and April where our growth is 10%. But I'm not sure the
sustainability of it, so we took it down to about half what we
thought it was in the beginning of the year, which was really in some
sense a third of what it was in 2007.
We need to continue to work on price as Pete said we got some price
in the first quarter, this is price that we have gotten previous to
the recent runup of commodities. By the way, in this plan and in our
outlook we have assumed no further price increases above what we have
in place going into the year. My own judgment is if commodities stay
where they are and I'm talking about a whole range of commodities,
copper, aluminum, steel and other things, the industry would want and
probably deserves another price increase, but that's not built into
our estimate, although the higher materials prices are.
When we go to the rest of the world, Europe, Middle East and Asia, we
built a plan, last year we grew it with 7%, our estimate for the year
was 7%. Given our backlog and given what we see we ought to be at 7
to 8% for the year and again not being too optimistic, but there is a
lot of work out there and a lot of backlog out there and we feel good
about that range.
If we go to our $2.2 billion part service and solutions business, as
Pete mentioned in 2006 and perhaps even a little before we started to
realize the opportunities there to gain more customers, to offer more
things, to add capabilities and to the extent benefited by higher
energy costs which drive customers to do different things, not only
energy jobs but replace earlier. We had a very, very strong first
quarter. There were some special jobs in there that maybe helped us
to that 18%. We entered the year thinking that we would do 10%, we
probably stick with that 10% plus 10 to 12% based on a strong first
quarter and a good visibility as Pete talked about, the backlog
there, and by the way an encouraging part of that is it's not only in
the Americas where our business is strong, but we're starting to get
momentum after starting a little later in Europe, the Middle East and
Asia.
We turn to our residential business, $1.7 billion, we thought it
would be flat for the year as we entered the year. I don't think we
or many other people understood the depth of new housing coupled with
the fact that foreclosures and consumer demand and the ability for
people to move houses is probably a lot more severe than we would
have anticipated going into the year. Our current estimates for the
year is instead of flat we'd be down in the range of 5 to 7% for the
year and by the way if you recall we were down 8% in the first
quarter, we expect to be down in the range of 12% in the second
quarter. Which sort of implies that we will be relatively flat or
modestly down in the second half of the year. And we feel comfortable
with that because I think if you think about 2007, two things happen,
people sort of in the end of the year recognize that housing wasn't
going to be what it is and took housing starts down. And I think the
industry deinventoried a lot of units in the second half of the year.
So we won't have as hard a comparison in the second half of the year
in terms of volume, as we do in first half of the year.

So when you add it all up, ex exchange we ought to be up 3 to 4%,
some of that is price. When you compare that with where we started we
would probably be down about 1 point or 2 from our expectation. The
bulk of that I think certainly is in residential. With some lessening
in the Americas and in my own judgment some opportunity to do a
little better, both in international and parts and service. But
that's our best look for the year.
If you turn to page, page 10, we will talk about the guidance that we
gave you on what we call beginning of the year or fourth quarter sale
call. Our original guidance as I just talked about was 5 to 6%. Our
current outlook including about 1 point of foreign exchange would be
4 to 5% in terms of sales growth. We talked about the causes, we
talked about what's taking us down and I think in my judgment we
talked about where the upsides are in this estimate. If you think
about our EBIT, we took our estimate down about 15%. Nevertheless--?
PETE D'ALOIA: $15 million
FRED POSES: $15 million, thank you Pete. Nevertheless we will still
be up 8 to 13%. I think there's about four things that impact it. We
talked about the U.S. economy. We talked about no price in this
estimate, but commodities being up about $60 million versus our plan.
You can think about those commodities as four boxes, all of them
about the same, copper being one of those boxes, aluminum being a
second box, steel being a third box and other things related to
energy and those items being a fourth box, each being about 25% of
that $60 million.
We are sharpening our focus on productivity and we certainly are
looking as all businesses are to control our costs. They will help us
offset the lower volume and wider spread between commodities and
price, but nevertheless the combination of less contingency in our
plan and a lower estimate make us feel comfortable that our 770 to
815 as far as EBIT concerned up 8 to 13% is a good number and
certainly achievable for our Company.
If you go to income from continuing operations on the bottom, we gave
you an estimate of 490 to 520 million, up 21 to 28%. We stick with
that, because we're able to absorb that $15 million of EBIT reduction
by a slightly lower tax rate and our original plan we had 34, we will
be around 33. By the way, that's getting us back or not even quite
back to where we were in 2006. So when we revise our estimate and
look at where we stand we would say EBIT ought to be up 8 to 13%
despite a tough residential market, probably much tougher than we
thought and a little tougher commercial market than we thought
entering the year. And by the way, tougher commodities which we
haven't been able to get price yet to offset.
So let me just summarize on page 11, I think when we think about our
business we have very good balance in Trane. That balance continues
to get better as we continue to drive our commercial sales and
service. We see continued growth in commercial, although diminished
and I think the if fundamentals are there. It may be all the tougher
time in the short term, but the fundamentals of population growth,
energy efficiency are there for equipment. And as Pete talked out, I
think we're just scratching the surface on what we can do in service.
Our orders in backlog support the growth. I want to be optimistic the
last two months in commercial are encouraging, but nevertheless I
think we should be cautious. And as Pete talked about the acquisition
of Trane by Ingersoll Rand is progressing and as we said before we
expect our closing in the second quarter of 2008.

Moving to the right side and finishing up, the fundamentals whether
we're in 2006 or 2007, 2008 or 2010 remain the same. There's a
tremendously large installed base both in commercial and residential.
The need for energy and the cost for energy continues to grow. I'm
not sure I want to forecast where oil prices are going to be, but we
-- the tendency is a lot higher energy prices and air conditioning is
a wonderful, wonderful way to reduce the energy cost. Global warming
and population growth are fundamentals that I think for our business
are undeniably and just as solid if not more solid than they were in
the years past. We can see growth in commercial. We are suffering
with perhaps the benefits of overbuilding as far as residential is
concerned. And suffering perhaps from ease of credit on the part of
housing. But the fundamentals of housing are still there and people
want to own their homes and over a period of time I wouldn't forecast
whether it's within the year or longer than that, housing will
recover and will return to a level of building houses in the 1.5
million to 1.6 million homes a year.
As far as profit opportunities, service, sales, or for us continued
growth, we haven't scratched the surface I don't think on
productivity in sales, service. By the way there's more to do in
manufacturing and distribution and operations. And we continue to be
optimistic about what the combination of Ingersoll Rand and Trane can
be, not only in the short term in the cost takeouts and synergies but
in the long term of combining two businesses to create a 17 billion
global industrial business. So we had a good first quarter. We're
working real hard. We will have a good second quarter. Despite our
outlook for residential. And I think we will have a good year. So
with that we will turn it back to our moderator and Pete and I would
be delighted to answer your questions.
OPERATOR: Thank you. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) We will go first to
Nigel Coe with Deutsche Bank.
NIGEL COE, ANALYST, DEUTSCHE BANK: Thanks, good morning.
FRED POSES: Good morning.
NIGEL COE: I'm shocked I got the first question, I think that's the
first time that's ever happened to me. I want to go through the EBIT
delta, I just want to make sure the math stacks up.
FRED POSES: Don't be afraid, Nigel, it's okay.
NIGEL COE: So commodities are up [$60] million plan versus the plan,
revs down 17 million, so let's call that $50 million of EBIT. So it
looks like EBIT is $75 million from those two, negative from those
two factors. Just want to understand how much of that offset is
coming from cost containment measures and how much is coming from the
contingency.
FRED POSES: I think it's a combination of the two. We started the
year with reasonable amount of contingency because we knew there was
concern about the residential market. I'm not sure we understood
completely the concern about the commercial market. So we did reduce
our contingency which helped us cover that gap. We do have slightly
higher prices than we had in the plant to help us offset that gap and
we do have cost containment to help us. You take those altogether and
we reduced our EBIT by $15 million. And we still have a reasonable
amount of contingency, not the amount of contingency we entered the
year with. But I also think we have a much better understanding of
what the year's going to look like at this point than when we entered
the year.

NIGEL COE: I think you had $75 million entering the year?
FRED POSES: That's right, we have about a third of that left.
NIGEL COE: Okay, great. Your hedging and forward agreements on
copper, steel, aluminum, can you give us some color on that?
FRED POSES: Yes, we're unhedged. The color on that would be when we
entered the year we knew we had the opportunity to hedge or not
hedge, we were concerned that if the market got weak we thought that
commodities may weaken also. And therefore we didn't want to get
stuck as I would say with high price commodities in a declining
market. As it turned out that probably wasn't the smartest thing in
the world. On the second part of it, historically, when commodities
go up generally this industry has the ability, although somewhat at a
lag, to move prices. My own personal belief is that the story hasn't
been told there on what's going to happen in the second half of the
year on pricing, although in this estimate we have built nothing in
for pricing.
NIGEL COE: Okay, thanks.
OPERATOR: Next to Shannon O'Callaghan with Lehman Brothers.
SHANNON O'CALLAGHAN, ANALYST, LEHMAN BROTHERS: Morning.
FRED POSES: Morning.
SHANNON O'CALLAGHAN: Can you talk a little bit about your
expectations, for the rest of the year in terms of the margin
dynamics in commercial and residential. How much is, do you expect
margins to sort of continue to compress in residential and if the
America's piece of commercial softening here what are you looking for
margins on the commercial side?
FRED POSES: Well, I don't know if we have the exact margins, but I
think the way I think of it is Shannon, that the second half of
residential is a lot easier comparison for two fundamental reasons.
One, we don't have the difficulty in the volume comparison compared
the second half of 2007 with our outlook in 2008. In addition, if you
recall in the second half of 2007, we had a reasonable amount of
warranty costs associated primarily with our recall of Clean Effects.
And we had a reasonable amount of costs related to taking down our
inventory as we tried to chase down the market in inventory. So I
think for the second half of the year our margins may be modestly
down in residential, but not in the comparison to the margin erosion
in the first half, which I'll bet was probably in the range of 4% in
the first quarter.
SHANNON O'CALLAGHAN: Okay.
FRED POSES: Commercial we have reasonable amount of growth. We have
reasonable amount of containment. I think we have got a little price
there in commercial if there's a margin erosion it would probably be
more around the impact of commodities and it will be probably
relatively modest.
PETE D'ALOIA: We gained nice margins, that's going to continue. And
the depression in margins the first half we're not likely to see in
the second half for residential.

SHANNON O'CALLAGHAN: Okay. Can you just talk a little more about this
order dynamic so far through the year. I mean, obviously you're
saying things sort of picked up, but you still taking the guidance
down a good chunk for the commercial equipment piece. What are you
seeing in terms of the recent pickup and what keeps you, obviously it
seems reasonable to be cautious, but why do you think it picked up
after a tough January, February?
FRED POSES: Well, I think the comparisons were particularly tough in
the first quarter if I remember. Our sales were up -- orders were up
31%.. So the comparisons were particularly tough. I also think that a
lot of this and, and I'm not exactly sure, you get in the credit
situation where people are not sure whether they can get projects
funded or not, there's sort of a pause there. I don't know if it's
permanent or not and I think we don't know. So I did say that the
last two months as far as order pace has been encouraging. There is
some vitality out there. But maybe we just thought given the tone of
the economy that we would be better off being a little conservative
on our U.S. growth. But a better picture certainly in the second
quarter and if order pace continues at 10% we will probably be a
little more optimistic about the year as far as that's concerned.
SHANNON O'CALLAGHAN: Okay, thanks a lot.
OPERATOR: We will move next to Scott Graham with Bear Stearns.
SCOTT GRAHAM, ANALYST, BEAR STEARNS: Yes, good morning Fred, Pete.
FRED POSES: Hi.
SCOTT GRAHAM: I know you're not baking more pricing than what you
already have into the guidance, but realistically I think there are
some I think expectations out there that given commodities prices are
rising there's probably some more in channel expectations for guys
like you to increase prices. Could you give us an idea of what
specifically the pricing component to your sales looks like right now
versus what further increases you're contemplating both regs and
comp.
FRED POSES: I don't want to speculate on pricing going forward. I
told you that our estimate does not include any price increases. We
gave you, in the first quarter our pricing was probably better by a
little over 2%. That over time will sort of diminish a little bit
because you're talking about a 12 month comparison. So but I do agree
with you Scott, that I think this industry since 2004 has been able
to increase prices to sort of offset the commodities. And given that
these commodities are widespread. I mean I talked about everyone buys
copper, everyone buys aluminum, everyone buys steel and everyone is
impacted by energy, we will get a better sense in the second quarter
of where pricing's going to be in the second half of the year. By the
way, it would be in the second half of the year, it wouldn't have
much of an impact on the second quarter.
SCOTT GRAHAM: Does the impact of the merger with Ingersoll have
anything to do with your not announcing pricing policies yet.
FRED POSES: No. I mean, it's not a question of announcing or not
announcing pricing policies, it's just our sensing of the market and
where it is and understanding where these commodities are. And we
will see where we are. We announced a price increase for residential.
We will see how that does. We didn't build it in here, but we will
see how it does. By the way, we think that everyone makes a unit out
of steel, aluminum and copper.

SCOTT GRAHAM: Thank you both a lot.
OPERATOR: (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) We will move next to Ted Wheeler
with Buckingham Research.
TED WHEELER, ANALYST, BUCKINGHAM RESEARCH: Hi, good morning all. Can
you hear me all right.
FRED POSES: Yes, Ted.
TED WHEELER: Hi there. I wanted to go back again a little bit on the
commodity price questions. The $60 million head wind just seems a
little, a little less just anecdotally based on the kinds of
increases in the sort of futures markets in commodities relative,
because you gave great guidance on all this going back a few years
ago. Is that a function, do you have some contracts baked in maybe
and if so is there an '09 head wind we need to have in mind if we
looked at today's prices?
FRED POSES: Ted, thanks for the question. No, I mean clearly we have
steel contracts, but those steel contracts are flexing with steel. So
we're not locked in on steel. We didn't hedge aluminum, we didn't
hedge copper and we didn't hedge other energies. To use copper as
sort of a surrogate for the rest of the stuff, when we entered the
year we thought copper would be in the range of 3.50. By the way, you
can go back three or four months and copper was 2.90 to $3.
TED WHEELER: Right.
FRED POSES: So we, I mean we just used it's going in the range ever
$4, 3.90 to $4. I don't know and that's what we did. I'm convinced
Ted that if commodities sort of stay where they are, copper at 3.90
to $4, aluminum at, 1.35, steel going up dramatically, then I'm
confident that the $60 million quote unquote is real and is enough.
TED WHEELER: And '09 would basically be a wash if we stayed where we
are?
FRED POSES: Well, I think if fundamentally we would be a little,
we're slightly lower in the first quarter. There's a little lag on as
we see it in the second quarter. But '09 would if fundamentally be
the same run rate fundamentally as the second half of the year.
TED WHEELER: Okay, thanks very much for that clarification. I guess
another question I had, you talked about proposing and bidding
pipeline so to speak or, your forward-look at the activity levels and
you're a little cautious I think on the sustainability of this 10%
for the last two months orders. I guess that is, that's giving us a
read on what you see in those pipeline-ish indications, is that
correct?
FRED POSES: Well, I think the more months that we can put 10% behind
us the better we will feel. And we're really talking about the
Americas, we're really talking about the United States. And I think
there's a lot of uncertainty out there. And I think there are
projects out there, I was talking to one general contractor about
three weeks ago and he says there's a pause in funding. And if
there's a pause in funding there may be a pause in initiation of
these projects.
TED WHEELER: But these conversations that you folks are having do not
really show that slow down yet?

FRED POSES: Well, I think -- well, I mean our order pace is our order
pace. There is work out there, probably not at the pace of 2007 but
nor did we expect it to be at the pace of 2007. But I think there's
work out there. The other thing I would point out, that we are a lot
driven by replacement and renovation even in commercial. Some 60% of
what we do. And I think energy prices ought to bode well for those
kinds of projects and that is helping us also offset what may be a
certain uncertainty about new construction in commercial.
TED WHEELER: And you talked in I think the comments again about
bidding future conversation for future relationships in business,
that you track this on the service product line.
FRED POSES: Well, we track it, I mean we watch it both on service and
equipment. I think Pete's comment was in some senses a lot of
vitality in service and we can see that vitality at a high level
continuing.
TED WHEELER: That was my question, thank you. Great quarter, I know
it's a tough time. It's pretty good margin performance if you can do
it for the rest of the year.
FRED POSES: Well, we're confident we can, so we will keep working at
it.
OPERATOR: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one final
question. We will go next to Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital.
JEFF HAMMOND, ANALYST, KEYBANC CAPITAL: Hi, good morning guys.
FRED POSES: Morning guy.
JEFF HAMMOND: Hey, just wanted to understand the commercial shipments
in the first quarter, a little bit lighter just given how strong the
backlog had been. Is there anything, is that just timing of shipments
or was there more to that?
FRED POSES: I think it's not a timing of shipments particularly. I
think it's a tough comparison versus the first quarter of last year,
Jeff. I mean, in the first quarter, I mean, I think our light
commercial boost was sort of flat this quarter, off something that
was up 31% light commercial in the first quarter of last year. So we
have got some tough comparisons even in commercial. So, I don't think
we would say that the world has stopped in commercial in the U.S. at
all. And remember, I come back and as I said to Ted I think there's a
lot of replacement out there and we will see how it goes. And by the
way, it's picked up in the last two months. So I don't know. We have
got a realistic outlook and we will stick with it.
JEFF HAMMOND: And then just in terms of sub, Pete you mentioned the
sub vertical trends in the first quarter. Can you tie that into
orders and is there anything definitive one way or the other, where
something's -- some sub verticals are proving much more resilient and
some are maybe declining more surprisingly.
PETE D'ALOIA: Jeff, I think it's hard to say. I think some of it has
to do with where our strengths might lie, too. So it's a little
difficult to really draw any conclusions from that.

JEFF HAMMOND: Okay. Then just final clarification on price, you
announced a price increase in revs of I think 4 to 6, is any of that
incorporated into the guidance.
FRED POSES: I think we have been conservative about pricing and that
is incorporated into the guidance.
JEFF HAMMOND: Have you announced anything in terms of follow on
commercial increases?
FRED POSES: We haven't announced anything yet.
JEFF HAMMOND: Okay. Thanks a lot.
FRED POSES: Okay. Thanks Jeff.
OPERATOR: And that will conclude our question and answer session. I
would like to turn the conference back over for any additional or
closing remarks.
FRED POSES: Our closing remarks is we have a good business, we will
continue to work at it and either we or someone else will see you
next quarter. Thank you.
OPERATOR: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's
conference. We do thank you for your participation and you may
disconnect at this time.
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