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OPERATOR: Good day, everyone. You are currently -- excuse me. Good
day, everyone, and welcome to the POSCO first quarter 2008 results
conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time,
for opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference over to your
moderator for today, Zayong Koo of Lehman Brothers, Korea. Please go
ahead, sir.
ZAYONG KOO, ANALYST, LEHMAN BROTHERS: Thank you. Good morning. This
is Zayong Koo of Lehman Brothers. We're very honored to have Dr. Ki
Hong Park, Senior Vice President and Head of Finance, along with Mr.
Duk Il Yoon, Head of IR Group, and his team, to discuss POSCO's first
quarter results.
Without further ado, Dr. Park.
KI HONG PARK, SVP AND HEAD OF FINANCE, POSCO: Good morning. Thank you
for joining us. This is Ki Hong Park. I'm Senior Vice President, in
charge of finance department. I am pleased to talk to you about the
first quarter performance of POSCO.
First, I will present the highlights of our first quarter performance
and share our views on current steel business environment. Then, we
will go to the Q&A session.
Actually, we completed the upgrade and renovation of our major
facilities last year. Therefore, our production capacity increased.
As a result, first quarter crude steel production was 8.2m tons, up
by 5%, and finished steel production was 8m tons, up by almost 8%.
And the sales of our strategic products continued to rise as well.
Thanks to favorable market conditions and increased sales volume,
revenue reached an all-time high of KRW6.1 trillion. Operating income
also grew to KRW1.3 trillion, with operating margin at 21%. Moreover,
stainless steel division, which has been struggling in the last two
quarters, are showing improvements as nickel price stabilizes and the
stainless steel price rises.
On balance sheet side, despite slight increase in our debt level, due
mainly to the changes in foreign exchange rates, overall financial
structure continues to remain healthy. Key financial ratios well
summarize our performance. EBITDA grew to KRW1.7 trillion, ROE
improved to 16.8%, and the total liability to equity ratio dropped to
23.7%.
In consolidated terms, steel business was strong while engineering
and construction business showed seasonality in the construction
business. But, overall, consolidated revenue grew 3.3% to KRW8.5
trillion and operating profit was KRW1.5 trillion.
Now, I will summarize some of our activities and accomplishments
during the first quarter. Progress in India may seem slow, but is in
fact steady. We conducted demarcation of the site and are having
talks with affected people for relocation and rehabilitation plans.
We are still waiting for the final clearance for forest diversion of
government-owned land and the prospecting license for the mine, but
we believe that these issues will be resolved in due time.
FINEX operation is at optimum, with all metrics on or above the
initial target. Productivity, efficiency and [economics] all have
been verified and are holding steady. We now are working on plans to
scale up the facility for our overseas project.
Investment for expanding premium products continues. Plate mill was
upgraded and various other facilities are being upgraded. To enhance
our service to customers, we hosted global [whole event involvement]
forum, entering partnerships with auto makers. On the other hand, we
were recognized with best partner award from Suzuki, for best
automotive steel supplier and technical partner.
Technologically, we set new records in productivity and efficiency in
iron making, steel making, continuous casting and hot rolling. We
also developed new products to enhance our customers'
competitiveness.
For market penetration and expansion, we completed construction of a
processing center in Vietnam and numerous others are under
construction. We also completed a tin plate plant in China and began
construction of API pipe plant in the United States. And internally,
our efforts to save costs continue. We achieved another KRW200b cost
reduction in the first quarter.
On April 1, celebrating the 40th anniversary of POSCO's foundation,
we announced Vision 2018, our long-term strategy. This leads to a
longer strategic road map, where size, speed and synergy will guide
us to becoming the true global leader in steel business and in new
strategic businesses.
For growth, we will make more aggressive investments in markets that
grow fast and regions that have raw materials. In 10 years, POSCO
will have a production capacity of more than 50m tons globally.
For competitiveness, we will increase market dominance through the
development of new technology. We will also establish supply chain
management basis around the world to better service our customers.
And we will reinforce our cost advantages by constant innovation [and
leverage upside].
For Group management, we will strengthen current core businesses and
seek new growth opportunities. We will also establish Group
management systems to improve efficiency. For the past 10 years,
POSCO achieved 10% growth every year. With the new vision, we plan to
have another 10% growth every year for the next 10 years. That will
raise our revenue to KRW100 trillion by year 2018.
Turning our attention to broad steel market conditions, we see many
positive signs and limited downside risks. China and other emerging
countries continue to drive strong growth in steel demand. This year,
global steel consumption is expected to grow another 4% to 5% with
China's lead. Production will grow too, but at a slower rate than
demand. And we believe oversupply and weakening of markets are less
likely to happen.
Reflecting strong demand, steel prices are at all-time high in all
regions. In Europe in particular, hot coil is being traded at more
than $1,000 per ton.
Even in China, where concerns were building up since the government
restricted steel exports, the price remains high and the production
surplus continues to drop. In fact, in February, steel exports from
China were at the lowest in almost two years.
In the Korean market, demand industries like auto and shipbuilding
are still strong, and the overall steel consumption would grow
another 4% to 5%.
I'd like to finish my presentation by giving you our revised business
plan, reflecting recent changes. We understand that our first quarter
results were somewhat higher than what you may have expected. But the
pressure on our costs is piling up, as iron ore prices rise around
more than 65% and the coal prices being settled at $300 per ton.
Won/dollar exchange rate is also higher than we first forecasted.
However, with our recent price increase and continuous cost reduction
campaign, we are confident that we will be able to achieve a good
performance in year 2008 - crude steel production of 33.4m tons,
revenue of KRW27.9 trillion and operating income of KRW4.8 trillion.
This is brief explanation of our first quarter performance. I'd like
to open your questions.
ZAYONG KOO: Thank you, Dr. Park. We'd like to open up to Q&A now,
please.
OPERATOR: Thank you. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). And our first question
comes from Jacques Bouthillier from Impala Asset Management.
JACQUES BOUTHILLIER, ANALYST, IMPALA ASSET MANAGEMENT: Hi. Two
questions. Thank you for the call. The first question is, on your
forecasts for 2018 the non-steel increases in sales are substantial.
Does that mean that you plan to make either one or several
acquisitions to reach those targets in the non-steel business?
And secondly, on the forecast for 2008, are you assuming further
price increases from the ones already announced, in order for you to
reach your operating income?
KI HONG PARK: Yes, we have plans to increase our non-steel sales to
300 -- KRW30 trillion, but we don't have a specific plan to acquire
some companies. But we'd like to invest more on energy, construction
and newly developing industries.
For the second question, our forecast on this year's performance is
based on up to the recent price increase. It is not -- it does not
include further increase in our product prices.
JACQUES BOUTHILLIER: Okay, thank you.
OPERATOR: Our next question comes from Leo Larkin from Standard &
Poor's.
LEO LARKIN, ANALYST, STANDARD & POOR'S: Hello. Could you give us
guidance for capital spending and depreciation for 2008?
KI HONG PARK: Our CapEx this year is KRW6.9 trillion and our
depreciation this year is KRW1.9 trillion.
LEO LARKIN: Thank you.
KI HONG PARK: Yes.
OPERATOR: (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Our next question comes from [Mark
Masquerena] from Lehman Brothers.
MARK MASQUERENA, ANALYST, LEHMAN BROTHERS: Hi. Thanks for doing the
call again. Just a quick question, speaking about raw material
prices, obviously surging. What's your strategy going forward, as far
as M&A or taking a stake in companies to secure raw materials?
KI HONG PARK: Since the increase of raw material prices are so high
that we'd like to expand our captive mines. Right now, our captive
mine ratio is about 17%, but we are going to increase that ratio up
to 30% by year 2011.
OPERATOR: Anything further, Mr. Masquerena?
MARK MASQUERENA: No, that's all set.
OPERATOR: Thank you. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). And there are no more
questions in the queue, so at this time I would like to turn the
conference over -- back over, excuse me, to Mr. Zayong Koo from
Lehman Brothers, Korea, for any additional remarks. And I apologize,
I do have two more questions now. Are you able to take those?
ZAYONG KOO: Yes, go ahead.
OPERATOR: And that first question will come from Lindsay Taylor from
SAC Capital, S.A.C. Capital.
LINDSAY TAYLOR, ANALYST, SAC CAPITAL: Hi, guys. Thanks again for the
call. I just have a question about your guidance. You raised your
production guidance and your revenue guidance, but left your
operating profit guidance unchanged. Could you just run through
exactly the assumptions you've come to there? So, you've obviously
increased prices recently. You've taken that into account. So is it
fair to assume that the recent price increase is not enough to
maintain margins throughout the whole year?
KI HONG PARK: Yes, you are right. Our sales increases, but the
operating profit is the same as we originally planned at the
beginning of this year. Therefore, the operating profit ratio
decreased by about 2 or 3 percentage points, percent points. At this
moment, it is not easy for us to maintain the high operating profit
ratio, because the share of raw materials in our total sales becomes
so high compared with the beginning of this year. But we will try --
we will do our best to decrease our operating profit, in order to
recover the operating profit rate.
LINDSAY TAYLOR: Okay. But your prices are already quite a bit below
your -- the regional prices, and certainly the import prices into
Korea. Should I be expecting another price increase in the next few
months to offset that, or is that difficult in this environment,
given where your customers are in their order books?
KI HONG PARK: At this moment, I cannot say anything about the further
increase of our prices. But if the situation becomes very worsened,
then we will reconsider the further increase in prices. But at this
moment, there is nothing determined.
LINDSAY TAYLOR: Okay. And just a last question. If -- given the raw
material price increases that we've seen so far, I assume you haven't
got a iron ore price settlement from Rio Tinto or BHP, can you give
us an estimate of what is the increase in your cost base for -- just
on the raw material base that we've seen so far? And this is
obviously before you guys have your cost savings program, which will
reduce the impact of that somewhat.
OPERATOR: Anything further, Mr. Taylor?
LINDSAY TAYLOR: I'm waiting for the answer.
OPERATOR: Okay, thank you.
KI HONG PARK: So far, we have a new contract at 65% increase and the
negotiation is going right now, underway right now. But it has not
been finished yet, so I cannot say any numbers to you. Yes.
LINDSAY TAYLOR: Okay. But if we just assume that your iron ore was
settled at 65% and we've -- we know you've had a coking coal
settlement, can you give us an estimate of what is the impact on your
cost base, just from the raw material price increases that we've seen
so far?
DUK IL YOON, HEAD OF IR, POSCO: Well, we cannot disclose the exact
average price of our iron ore and coal that's used, because it
involves a certain blending technology that's a little bit sensitive.
But the new contract price would become effective as of April 1, but
since we have month and a half worth of inventory the new price would
have an effect -- impact, on our income statement from June on. So
about seven months of the total 2008 will be impacted by these new
prices and, as I said, a 65% increase in iron ore. And coal, it's a
little bit early because, well, hard coking coal, it was about 20%
increase but we still have to finish the negotiation with semi-soft
and thermal coal.
LINDSAY TAYLOR: Okay. Okay, thanks very much.
OPERATOR: And next we'll hear from Phil Chung from Morgan Stanley.
PHIL CHUNG, ANALYST, MORGAN STANLEY: Thank you, management, for doing
this call. Just now the management mentioned, assuming that the
condition worsened, the management will consider increasing price --
the price. Can you maybe share with us what you -- under what
circumstances is that? And could you be a bit more specific?
KI HONG PARK: I did note that we do not expect any -- we do not think
any specific circumstances. But what I am saying is that if the
situation becomes very bad and our expected performance would become
very bad, then we will consider a further increase of our product
prices. But right now, I cannot tell you a very specific situation,
but it is likely to be related to the very big increase in raw
materials or other costs.
PHIL CHUNG: Okay. Can I have a follow-up question? Where do you see
price trend going into the second half of the year? And is your
pricing based on industry fundamentals or are you just looking at
your cost base and you price your products accordingly?
KI HONG PARK: It depends. Both of them, actually. We have to think
about -- consider the market situation as well as our cost burden.
PHIL CHUNG: Okay. Given that your cost structure (inaudible), you
have almost -- you have finished the negotiation for iron ore and
coking coal, these are the major raw materials. Assuming that the
spot price in the second half stayed the same at this level, [we
should steer 20%] above your second quarter contract price, can we
expect a cost -- a price increase under those circumstances?
DUK IL YOON: As we said earlier, we can't really comment that much on
what -- how the market will evolve in the future and how we need to
respond to the changing market situation. So it's really difficult
for us to tell whether we will have a shift in our price policy right
now.
KI HONG PARK: Actually, we have some contingency plans for the
possible situations in the market, but it is not good for us to
reveal that plan at this moment.
PHIL CHUNG: Okay. Thank you, management. Thank you.
OPERATOR: And we'll have a follow-up question from Mark Masquerena
from Lehman Brothers.
CHRIS VALLI, ANALYST, LEHMAN BROTHERS: Yes, hi. This is Chris Valli,
actually, from Lehman. And I was wondering if you could just expand
on your hedging strategy and how it's basically changed, let's say
over the last three years, and how you anticipate that changing, if
at all, going forward over the next three years. Again, if you could
expand on that a bit. Thank you.
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: Well, as you know, we always
(inaudible) so we need the dollar, and we -- well, usually we buy the
dollar in the market and we call this is natural hedge. Right? So we
don't have any specific other strategy for exchange rate.
CHRIS VALLI: And how has your strategy changed at all, I guess with
respect to the raw materials? Is there anything you are attempting to
do? Again, given the dramatic moves we've seen and the impact to the
business.
DUK IL YOON: On the raw material side, as we discussed and as it is
shown on our presentation, we will increase and we will make
aggressive investments on raw material development and trying to
increase our portion of captive mine. So currently, on average, our
self-sufficiency rate for raw material is around 17%. Our target is
to increase that to 30%.
CHRIS VALLI: Thank you.
OPERATOR: And we have a question from Benjamin Moyer from BlackRock.
BENJAMIN MOYER, ANALYST, BLACKROCK PACIFIC: Yes. Just a few points of
clarification. I wondered if you could just restate for us the
history of your price changes year to date, including the most recent
price change. And then, if you could just review the -- where that
puts us with your price, relative to the prices of your competitors
in the various markets around Asia.
DUK IL YOON: I will give you the numbers in terms of hot rolled coil.
Beginning of 2006, two years ago, it started out with KRW480,000. We
increased that by KRW40,000 to KRW520,000 in July '06. And that price
has been maintained until February this year, when we increased
another KRW60,000 to KRW580,000, and our today's announcement of
increase of KRW120,000. So that leaves it at KRW700,000.
Yes. With our current price at KRW700,000, it was at par with our
local domestic competitor's price, but still a little bit lower than
import steel price from China and a little lower than the spot prices
of our -- other countries in our region, like China and Japan.
BENJAMIN MOYER: And is it below the Japanese -- the price of imported
steel from Japan, in Korea?
DUK IL YOON: Slightly lower than the import price from Japan.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Okay. And then I just -- I heard earlier in the call
a reference to the profits in the stainless steel business. And I
know -- I recall on a call previously that -- I think that you were
unprofitable in stainless steel for a period last year, I think. And
at the time, the comment was made that you expected fairly
significant improvement this year. So I just wonder if you could
clarify the extent of the profits or losses being generated from the
stainless steel business, and just speak a little bit about the
change versus last year.
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: Okay. We have two good news in
stainless side. The one thing is about -- on March we make money, we
made a profit. And, of course, the first quarter we have a little bit
losses. But from March, definitely we believe the market is recovered
and nickel price has stabilized. So the stability possibility is
getting better and better. And the other good news is on October we
will have a bigger factory in POSCO. So I think it covers more than
30% what we needed per year. So from mainly next year, definitely we
did have a loss on our profitability on the stainless side. So the
stainless market is better -- our stability and profitability of
stainless is getting better and better. Right? So you needed a
specific number?
BENJAMIN MOYER: If possible, yes.
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: Okay. Well, in March our target
is about KRW14b. Right?
BENJAMIN MOYER: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: So -- but in the first quarter
still we have about KRW7b losses.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Okay. How about for all of last year in the stainless
steel business, what was the profit or loss?
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: KRW90b, KRW90b was the profit.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Okay. And the --
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: If I use that, from the March
stainless steel (inaudible) positive in profitability, we think until
-- by end of this year, we think there is a profit around KRW450b.
But as you know, stainless it is [very wide] and in terms of
(technical difficulty) our target number.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Okay. So KRW90b loss in 2007 and --?
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: Profit.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Oh sorry, profit, sorry. And this, in 2008, KRW250b
profit projection?
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: Yes, right.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Okay. And the facility that you mentioned, coming
on-stream in October, that's a -- is that a nickel --?
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: Nickel refinery.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Refinery in Korea?
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: Yes. Actually, we will bring the
nickel ore from New Caledonia, from our joint venture. Right? And we
will make the nickel to use in Korea. So that is about 30% of our
total usage.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Okay. Okay, great. Thank you.
OPERATOR: And we have a follow-up question from Lindsay Taylor from
SAC Capital.
LINDSAY TAYLOR: Yes, hi. Just a quick question. Your production was
up quite strongly in the first quarter. The annualized -- at that
annualized rate you are going to be hitting just above a few -- well,
it's actually 1.5m tons above your guidance for the moment. And also,
your costs were -- your operating costs per ton fell about 6% in the
quarter, from the fourth quarter. I am just trying to understand if
there's -- firstly, if there's an inventory effect that I should be
aware of that probably may not continue throughout the rest of the
year. And secondly, is the volume guidance -- can you continue with
these volumes throughout the full course of the year as well?
DUK IL YOON: I'm sorry. Could you repeat the last part of the
question again?
LINDSAY TAYLOR: I'm sorry. The question is basically your production
in the first quarter was quite strong, obviously. Is that the same
all throughout the full year? And secondly, your cost per ton fell
about 6% in the first quarter, from the fourth quarter. I am just
wondering if there is anything unusual there or if that is a
sustainable decrease in your cost base, because your cost
(inaudible)?
DUK IL YOON: Yes. If you look at our full year production guidance,
that's our latest target and annualized first quarter may be slightly
higher. But our annual guidance shouldn't change much at this point.
As for the per-ton cost, which is divide the total cost of goods sold
by the volume, yes, that's a little difficult to say right now,
because stainless business is also included in that whole thing. So
product mix and also product, between carbon steel and stainless
steel, has a little bit of impact on that. But as our cost reduction
numbers show, during the first quarter of this year we saved about
KRW200b in cash costs compared to last year, so that would have
impacted on our per-ton cost of goods sold.
LINDSAY TAYLOR: Okay. Thank you.
OPERATOR: (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). And you have a question from
Takeshi Ishiga from Alliance Bernstein.
TAKESHI ISHIGA, ANALYST, ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN: Good evening. I have a
couple of questions. First is what is your assumptions for the
[stainless cost] and DCI coal price increase embedded in the recent
price increase of these products?
KI HONG PARK: I am sorry, but it is not possible for us to tell you
the numbers for the coal prices. (Multiple speakers) position.
TAKESHI ISHIGA: So you have seen a lower price increase in terms of
percentage vis-a-vis hard coking coal?
KI HONG PARK: I am sorry.
UNIDENTIFIED COMPANY REPRESENTATIVE: We cannot release our
assumptions, because we are under negotiations with coal suppliers,
so it's very sensitive (inaudible) so please understand our
situation.
TAKESHI ISHIGA: Okay. The second question is about Vietnam. Could you
tell us the current situation about the upstream capacity build-out?
And also, I understand [Ford Motor] recently released the
international build of integrated plant in Vietnam, so I would
appreciate if you could give us your views on the feasibility of
that.
KI HONG PARK: We have almost finished the feasibility study for
upstream facilities in Vietnam, and we will report those results to
the Vietnamese government soon. And we have many kinds of
communications with the Vietnamese government at this moment and we
think that we will be able to finalize our decisions on the upstream
investment in Vietnam by the end of this year.
TAKESHI ISHIGA: You think multiple plants, if possible?
KI HONG PARK: We heard that many other countries and many other
businesses in the other countries are interested in investment in
Vietnam, but we don't think that there is a very specific progress in
those plans.
TAKESHI ISHIGA: Thank you.
OPERATOR: And we have a follow-up question from Benjamin Moyer from
BlackRock.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Yes. You mentioned something about an award you had
received from Suzuki. I wonder if you could just comment on the
volume of steel that you are supplying to the Japanese auto industry,
and how that's been changing, and who some of your better customers
are, or bigger customers are?
DUK IL YOON: Yes. We currently -- our total automotive steel, more
than 50% we export and we supply to all of the major global
automakers. These include Honda, Nissan, Volkswagen, GM, Ford,
Chrysler, Mitsubishi and Suzuki, all of them. And of them, Suzuki is
one of our bigger customers. Last year, we -- well, the biggest
customer currently is Nissan, and Mitsubishi and Suzuki follows the
rank to the second and third biggest customer in automotive steel.
BENJAMIN MOYER: Thank you.
OPERATOR: (OPERATOR INSTRUCTONS).
ZAYONG KOO: We will take maybe one more question.
OPERATOR: And it appears there are no further questions today.
Gentlemen, I'll turn the conference back over to you.
ZAYONG KOO: Okay, great. Thank you. I'd like to thank, once again,
Dr. Park and the POSCO team for participating in this conference
call. And thank you again, everyone, for calling in. This concludes
the POSCO first quarter results conference call. Thank you.
KI HONG PARK: Thank you. Have a nice day.
DUK IL YOON: Thank you very much.
OPERATOR: And that does conclude today's conference. Thank you,
everyone, for joining us.
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